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God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 16
Joe Duffy (www.joeduffy.net)
This is the latest in a series, a Godgepodge of sports gambling discussion.
Toot Our Own Horn
We have happily given credit where it is due to competitors as we openly admit we utilize the databases of Jim Feist, Covers and Foxsheets in our daily handicapping. We also enjoy Scorephone.com to which we are affiliated because they carry some of the best syndicated content from the Sports Network and Sports Databases.
But I honestly believe our new blog at www.joeduffy.net fills a major void. We share our clipboard of daily news and notes as applicable to the gambler. We noticed a lot of fantasy sports sites led by Rotowire.com have valuable daily updated information for the rotisserie/fantasy sports player and wondered why there isn’t one for gamblers.
Now there is and it includes advanced news and notes available before the opening line comes out. Objectively I think you will like the 100 percent free information at www.joeduffy.net
Yes We Are “Series-ous”
I often hear handicappers say they disregard series stats beyond the current season. On the surface their argument would pass any of those truth tables that we were taught in Philosophy class in testing logical conjunction. Players and coaches often change, so the make-up of one or both teams can be significantly and even completely different than when a cycle of dominance started.
This truth is amplified in college sports where even redshirt athletes’ careers are spread out over a maximum of five years. In top shelf basketball conferences often the stars have a one or two year cup of java before turning pro. Take for example the 2005 NCAA basketball national champion North Carolina, which lost all five starters.
One could present a lucent argument that anything North Carolina did even the previous year was irrelevant in forecasting the near future. Certainly any college team that has nine-year dominance over another even if not justified in talent match-ups would seem immaterial. After all, some players on each team were nine years old at the commencement of the streak.
But such a simplistic view brushes off the mental aspect of the game. In sports there is no shortage of strange superstitions, so completely disregarding that one team can have a certain mystique even if it’s not warranted by players currently wearing the uniforms, can be costly.
Oh trendmeisters who blindly bet series stats, oblivious to the fact the status are no longer in quo are at the other and admittedly more naïve extreme. But don’t outthink yourself. Series stats should be handled with great caution and kept into their proper perspective. But the confidence level in each team or lack thereof that history can bring should not abandoned.
Those who ignore history in handicapping are doomed to not defeat it.
Not Just History, But Chemistry Too
It happens often in the NBA, but applies in every sport. Often a star player will miss a significant number of games because of injury, but a team will play well without him. In virtually all cases, getting the star player back of course is a positive in the long term. However we handicap that if a team prospered without him, more times than not they do take the proverbial step back before moving forward.
Of course when a stud returns to the line-up the pointspread will move in that team’s direction causing further line value. The window of opportunity is rarely longer than two games. However never fail to think likely that a key player returning to the line-up for a team streaking in the positive direction does more times than not rattle a harmonious situation. Anticipating this and the temporary nature of it will turn several frowns upside down in each sport.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His daily news and notes are at www.joeduffy.net