Handicappers Must Have a Threshold for Systematic Winning
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
Amongst our permanent clients the single most common question we get revolves around the position of “That system you been using is great, but doesn’t it seem like the parameters should point to the opposite pick?” So often our systems would be the converse to “conventional logic”. In gambling, acknowledging that “conventional logic” is almost always an oxymoron will put one on the right path to winning. Thus going against the grain is more times than not a stupendous line of attack.
As a for instance, many of our systems involve bad offenses going over, good and hot teams being go against and bad and cold teams being ATS goldmines. There are two huge rationales why this is the case.
The first answer is in the “should it not be the opposite?” line of non-thinking. Lines are made very much to adjust to public perception. Handicapping can be loosely defined as the art of finding the undervalued and overvalued teams. The teams at the top of the standings, even if they are a Cinderella team won’t fly under the radar too long. The public fears betting bottom feeders. As we discussed in our article “It is Good to Pick Bad” we synthesize the science of handicapping public perception.
Somewhat related though is the importance of what we call analyzing whether a team will reach their “threshold” or not. Nothing affects the pre-adjusted line (meaning before injuries, public perception and other considerations) than the two teams’ performances to date.
If someone could look into the proverbial crystal ball and tell you that both teams in an NBA game will shoot 10 percent above their season average, would you bet the over or the under? Chances are that you would happily invest in the over. Of course I know we preach a preponderance of evidence in handicapping, but I am trying to simplify the illustration.
Comparably in another game you had the two worst shooting teams in the NBA playing each other. Such hypothetical would put each of their field goal percentages at approximately 41 percent. Each team would need to hit just more than half their shots to exceed the aforestated threshold by 10 percentage points. However if it involved the two top shooting teams, that would put each team around the 48 percent mark meaning each team would have to shoot 58 percent to reach the exact same threshold. So in that comparison 58 percent shooting by both teams in one game is the equivalent of 51 percent in the other game.
How appropriate it’s called handicapping, because a team’s performance to date much like a “handicap” in your neighborhood beer bowling league is what the pointspread is based on.
I know a big time square player whom I will call Sal. Sal likes picking college hoop totals and one of his built in chestnuts is regurgitating, “I love the over in this game because both teams love to shoot the three point shot.”
“What’s the total Sal?” cohort Leo Shafto and I time and time again ask the dunderhead. Sal stammers, “It doesn’t matter, both teams will shoot a lot of threes.” Sal the Simpleton is oblivious to the high total, unfazed once he sees it and totally unwitting to the fact that to go over both teams will not only likely have to shoot a bunch of three-point shots, but exceed the high zenith and make an inordinate number to win his bet. This is especially the case to win based on the reasons Sal gave.
Systems that “make sense” to the uneducated eye are the ones that raise a red flag to the learned. Knowing “conventional logic” is an even bigger oxymoron in handicapping because oddsmakers are aware of public perception and knowing it’s easier to exceed a low threshold than a high threshold is indispensable wisdom.
As always system plays are only part of handicapping. We don’t consider a system to be statistically significant unless it has a Z-score of 4.0 or higher (statisticians consider 2.0 to be statistically significant. Or systems must have an ROI of 80 or above. But it is almost as important to be aware why systems work.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.