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You Can Recover From Being Half Bad
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
We get a lot of questions about halftime lines. As our expertise is with game side and totals, we posed the question to Leo Shafto of Scorephone.com as to how such lines are figured. Leo the premier first and second half handicapper on the planet and is one of the few who have been on both sides of the window having been the head oddsmaker for several sportsbooks including MVP Sportsbook. What follows is his answer.
The first thing is you have to have an initial second half projection and work from there. For instance, let’s say a game line has San Antonio -8 with a total of 186 against the Nuggets. We see a posted first half number on the game of SA -4.5 and the total is 92.5. Thus we can mathematically conclude that the second half number projection is automatically San Antonio -3.5 with a total of 93.5.
Then of course, the first half is played. If it holds very close to form, then the second half number will likewise be very close to form as well. For instance if the halftime score is 47-44 in favor of San Antonio, you can be assured that the second half total will be 93.5 as it is very close to the first half projection. Likewise, San Antonio (originally projected -3.5 in the second half) will most likely be -4 to -4.5 in the second half to compensate for just falling short of the initial projection.
If the two teams combine for 100 points in the first half, then the second half total will not be compensated down, it will likely be compensated up because the pace of the game is higher than expected. You may see a second half total of 95 in this case.
One more thing that can influence a second half total is whether the game is a blowout (especially in football). If one team is drilling another at halftime, the second half total may be reduced dramatically to account for the winning team being more interested in burning clock than scoring points. The score of the game makes a huge different in totals. If San Antonio were winning 65-35 at the half, one may knee-jerk into believing the second half will be high scoring because they 100 points already. When in fact, by the 4th quarter, both teams will be looking to get out of the game uninjured and the worst offensive players will probably be on the court.
There is a method to the madness and you have to take many factors in to account. This is just one example of many.
Now with the knowledge of how they are made, a few of my long-term clients use my picks to bet second half lines and in fact scold me for not doing the same. The key is having a well handicapped game. Without that, nothing else matters.
Our picks are based on projecting the final score, not the halftime score. Hence it’s no surprise our selections generally look much better at the final buzzer than at the half. If there is some type of seemingly cataclysmic score at the half, say for example a three-point chalk losing by 11, our sharp customers use that to their advantage.
If the halftime line is -5, that means there is a ton of leeway that enables the team to cover the second half line even if they don’t come close to the game line.
In other words, the square player in that situation is more likely to panic and hedge a bet. The sharp player essentially buys insurance. In the perfect example of buying a game at bargain basement price, the prodigy gambler looks at it as buying the game line at a much cheaper price than he could have at the beginning of the contest.
For example in said illustration, the three-point chalk could lose the game and still cover the second half line. The rule for betting halftime lines is using well handicapped selections, if the aberrational halftime score enables you to essentially buy the game spread at a significantly reduced price, jump on it.
If the “right” team comes back and covers the game, you win twice. If they cover the half-time cut-rate spread but still fail in the game, it costs you juice. In well handicapped games, our sharpies assure us the number of times they go 0-2 is outnumbered drastically by the other two scenarios.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. Godspicks.com is the top source for NFL picks, college football winners and more. There is no better source for sports handicapper free information to crush sportsbooks than Godspicks.com.