Thursday News and Notes

Thursday, November
30, 2006

 

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which is offering a
premium version
of the advanced news and notes, computer trends,
weather information and more for the entire bowl season. Much of the information is compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season
version of the OffshoreInsiders.com clipboard
is $69.

NFL

Baltimore-Cincinnati

Associated Press

With a victory over Lewis’ Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday
night, the Ravens (9-2) would become the first team to clinch a division
championship this season. A victory in Cincinnati
would snatch the AFC North title away from the Bengals (6-5) and put the Ravens
on course for greater things. Some Ravens are miffed by the way receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh talked down to them the first time they
met this season. The Ravens won 26-20 on Nov. 5, but Houshmandzadeh wasn’t
about to give them any credit afterward. “Deep down, we know we’re better than Baltimore
and they know it,” Houshmandzadeh said. “We’ve got better players than they do.”
Houshmandzadeh isn’t backing down. “I think we’re better than them,” he said
Tuesday. “We’ll find out.”

That jarring loss in Baltimore
became a turning point for Cincinnati.
The offense finally got on a roll, with Carson Palmer throwing for nine
touchdowns in the last three games. For the first time in his career, he has
put up passer ratings above 120 for three games in a row.

CFB

Ohio-Central Michigan

Sports Network

Two teams making their first-ever appearance in the
Mid-American Conference championship game will clash this Thursday night at
Ford Field, as the Ohio Bobcats battle the Central Michigan Chippewas. The
Chippewas are coming off their best season since 1994 when the team finished
with a 9-2 ledger and claimed the MAC title. CMU’s season got off to a rough
start, as the team lost three of its first five games. Fortunately the
Chippewas were able to right the ship and closed out the season winning five of
their last six matchups, with the lone loss coming
against Northern Illinois, 31-10. The Chippewas possess
one of the most dangerous offensive units in the MAC in 2006, mainly because of
the team’s potent passing attack, which produced 247.2 ypg.
The success of the aerial assault has led to 29.2 ppg, which ranked the team
first in the MAC in scoring. Quarterback Dan LeFevour
is the biggest reason for the success, as the redshirt freshman had a
sensational season, completing 63 percent of his passes for 2,555 yards. Defensively, the Chippewas were not dominant by any
stretch of the imagination, however the unit did
enough to help produce victories. Overall the team surrendered 24 ppg, while
allowing the opposition to collect 353.2 total ypg.
The unit had some success against the run, permitting just 135.2 ypg, but the team’s weak spot came against the pass, as
opponents threw for 217.9 ypg.

CBB

Louisiana Monroe-Auburn

Press Notes

The Warhawk men’s basketball
team fell at the hands of the No. 6-ranked Crimson Tide of Alabama, 75-61, in Tuscaloosa,
Ala.
By playing at Alabama,
ranked No. 6 in the AP poll and 7 in the ESPN Coaches Poll, ULM has played two, top-10
opponents from the Southeastern Conference on the road. Auburn
is led by third-year head coach Jeff Lebo, who guided the Tigers to a 12-16
overall record last season, 4-12 in the Southeastern Conference’s West
division. Auburn is currently 5-2
on the year after a 92-87, come-from-behind overtime victory over Nicholls
State
on Tuesday. The Tigers return
four starters and seven letterwinners from their
2005-06 squad, including guard Frank Tolbert who is third on the team in
scoring with a 14.0 per game average. Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com

NBA

Pistons-Heat

Detroit Free Press

Miami returned
all of its key players from last year’s championship season. But a lot has
changed. The Heat is 6-8, with five losses by 15 points or more. Shaquille O’Neal
is out for another month after a knee operation. Guard Jason Williams is still
limited after off-season knee surgery. Dwyane Wade is
still scoring, but playing too many minutes after entering the season already
exhausted from playing for Team USA
in the World Championships. Gary Payton, 38, and Antoine Walker have struggled;
both have been benched at times by coach Pat Riley.
The Heat’s offense has struggled most. It ranks second-to-last in points scored
per game. MasterLockLine.com
has the top plays from the top sports service in their highest ranked
sports.

Jazz-Lakers

Salt Lake Tribune

About the Jazz: They are 5-2 on the road. They are 3-1 on
the second night of back-to-back games. They are 7-2 at home. They are in the middle of a stretch of 12 out
of 13 games in the Staples Center.
They have yet to travel east of Salt Lake City,
and won’t until Dec. 12.

 


Handicapping Net Yardage Means Net Winnings

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

The pioneer in forensic handicapping, Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com, once described
the success of his futuristic branch of handicapping being based on the
premise, “The linesmakers know what the public is thinking and are two steps
ahead of them. The sharp player knows what the linesmakers are thinking and is
three steps ahead of them.”

That is a fair characterization of what Mike Godsey, chief
football handicapper at Joe Duffy’s GodsTips has been doing for years. When we deliberate
and finalize our football selections, the statistics for me that top the list
are yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on each side of the ball
relative to the cumulative averages of that team’s opponents to date.

Godsey, one of the first Internet handicappers, uses a few
others, but net yardage margin measured against schedule strength tops the
list. Actual straight up wins and losses have little bearing on handicapping, a
fact that so few gamblers realize. At least 9-of-10 pointspread bettors have
little conception of the difference between picking which team will win
straight up and which teams will cover. In short, that’s what separates the men
from the boys in sports betting.

Furthermore, to our original point, odds are based in
great deal do to perception and such conception is effected most by straight up
record. Godsey uses “net yardage records” and collates it against SU record to
divulge deceptive straight up records and consequently as we like to say:
overvalued and undervalued teams. He also applies the actual positive or
negative margin of net yardage much in the same way other handicappers use
point margin of victory or loss.

Wins and losses can often be affected by aberrational
events like defensive or special teams touchdowns. Godsey’s research shows “Such fortune is
tougher to duplicate game after game by the beneficiary or is much less likely
to be repeated against the victim of such fate.”

Of course as all good gamblers do, Godsey considers many
other factors. But while those who subsidize the books overassess wins, losses
and points margin, Godsey is using much more circumstantiated data. With net yardage topping his list of
statistical derivatives, it’s no wonder he’s topping the list of net winnings.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which is offering a
premium version
of the advanced news and notes, computer trends,
weather information and more for the entire bowl season. Much of the information is compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season
version of the OffshoreInsiders.com clipboard
is $69.


Wednesday Computer Trends

Wednesday, November
29, 2006

 

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which is offering a
premium version
of the advanced news and notes, computer trends,
weather information and more for the entire bowl season. Much of the information is compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season
version of the OffshoreInsiders.com clipboard
is $69

CBB

Ohio State-North Carolina

Press Notes

Ohio State
will be participating in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge for the fifth-consecutive
year. Ohio State
first participated in the event during the 2002-03 season
against Duke in Greensboro, N.C.,
a 91-75 Blue Devils’ victory. Georgia Tech traveled to Ohio
State
in 2004 and won 73-53. The
Buckeyes traveled to Clemson in 2004-05 and fell to the Tigers, 80-73. Ohio
State
defeated Virginia Tech in Columbus
a year ago, 69-59, for its first victory in the event. The last time Ohio State
was ranked No. 1 in either the coaches or media men’s basketball poll was
against Cincinnati (3/24/62) in a loss to the No. 2-ranked Bearcats (71-59) in
national title game in Louisville, Ky. Ohio State is 49-3 all-time as the No. 1
team (AP). Ohio State’s
last four games as the No. 1 team have been played on neutral courts. The
Buckeye’s last true road game as the No. 1 team was a loss at Wisconsin
(3/3/62), 86-67. North
Carolina
enters the game ranked No. 6/7. Ohio
State
is 45-36 all-time when
playing in a game in which both teams are ranked. The Buckeyes are 201-51 when
playing with an AP Top 10 ranking. Ohio
State
is 300-91 when playing with
an AP Top 25 ranking.

Iowa-Virginia Tech

Press Notes

Iowa (2-3) concludes
a five-game road swing Wednesday, Nov. 29 at Virginia Tech (3-2) as part of the
annual ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Game time is 6:05
p.m. CT
at VTU’s Cassell
Coliseum (9,847). Iowa dropped a
67-64 contest at Arizona State
Nov. 25 in its last outing after posting a 1-2 record in the Paradise Jam. Iowa
defeated Toledo 78-65 in the first
round before losing to 10th-ranked Alabama
72-60 in the semi-finals and Villanova 89-60 in the consolation round. Virginia
Tech is 3-2 on the season after dropping two of three games in the Old Spice
Classic in Florida. The Hokies
defeated lost to Southern Illinois 69-64 Sunday after a
77-56 win over Montana and a
71-68 loss to Western Michigan. Iowa
holds a 2-3 record in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, including a 2-0 record at
home, an 0-1 record on the road and an 0-2 record at
neutral sites. Iowa lost to Maryland
in Baltimore in 2000 before
defeating Georgia Tech in Iowa City
in 2001. Iowa lost to Duke at the
United Center
in Chicago in 2002 and lost at Florida
State
in 2003. The Hawkeyes
defeated North Carolina State
45-42 in Iowa City a year ago. Iowa
did not participate in the event in 2004 and 2005.

Miami (Oh)-Xavier

Press Notes

Xavier is off to a 4-1 start with its lone loss to Alabama,
55-63, in its final game of the Paradise Jam. In its most recent game, Xavier
collected an 86-68 win against American on Saturday. Wednesday marks the 94th
meeting between Miami and Xavier
with the Musketeers holding a 48-45 edge in the all-time series. When playing
on Xavier’s home court, the Musketeers are 30-17 against the RedHawks. Last season, the Musketeers posted a 75-65 win at
Millett Hall. The last time the teams met at the Cintas Center
(Nov. 22, 2004), Miami
collected a 66-54 win to snap a seven-game losing skid on Xavier’s home court. Miami
University
’s men’s basketball team
continues a four-game road stretch when it travels to Xavier. Illinois,
which entered its Nov. 24 game against the RedHawks
averaging 81.2 ppg, 41.2 rpg and shooting .511 from
the field, was bothered by a persistent RedHawk
defense which gave up just 51 points to the Illini,
out-rebounded them by six boards and held them to 37.8 percent shooting from
the field. It also was the smallest margin of victory for Illinois
this season, with no team getting within 20 points of the Illini
in their previous five wins. Rutgers’ 44 points against Miami
on Nov. 25 marked the fifth time this season the RedHawks
have restricted an opponent to less than 60 points. The previous day, Miami
held Illinois, which was
averaging over 80 points per game, to 51 points. Over the past three seasons, Miami
has confined opponents to less than 60 points 33 times, including 16 times last
season.

Virginia-Purdue

Associated Press

Virginia
(4-0) played each of its first four games at the John Paul Jones Arena, which
opened this year. They christened the arena with a 93-90 victory over then-No.
10 Arizona on Nov. 12, and won
their next three games by an average of more than 25 points. The Cavaliers
entered the rankings this week for the first time since Dec. 27, 2004. However, Virginia
now hits the road, where it went 2-11 last season. The
Cavaliers haven’t won more than three road games in a season since going 5-6
away from home in 2000-01.Virginia has managed to win its first road game in
each of the last three seasons, including 2003-04 and 2004-05, when it also
opened with four home games.

Clemson-Minnesota

Scout.com

Clemson has a 5-2 record in the ACC vs. Big Ten Challenge.
Only Duke (7-0) and Wake Forest
(6-1) have a better record. Clemson has won its first
seven games for the second straight year. The Tigers won their first 11 games
last year.

Rutgers-Temple

Press Notes

The Owls lead the all-time series with the Scarlet
Knights, 31-18, however, Rutgers has won five of the
last six meetings including four straight. Last season, Temple
got a 67-53 win at the RAC.

Kent-Cleveland State

Press Notes

The Golden Flashes (4-2) had their two-game winning streak
snapped in heartbreaking fashion Saturday night, falling at Butler
University
83-80 in a thrilling
double-overtime classic. Cleveland State (4-3) has won three straight and is
off to its best start since 1999-98 in its first season under the direction of
Waters, who coached the Golden Flashes for five seasons from 1996-2001, leading
KSU to its first two NCAA Tournament
appearances. Most recently the Vikings
picked up a 59-53 road win at the University
of Delaware
on Sunday. Kent
State
leads the all-time series
between the two schools, 24-18, and has won six straight against the
Vikings. The Flashes are 3-2 all-time at
the Wolstein Center and won last year’s meeting in
Kent by an 83-68 score (Dec. 3, 2005).

 





 

 


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Tuesday, November
28, 2006

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NBA

MEMPHIS +8.5 Denver

This is a top dichotomous ATS and SU game. We discount 98 percent of trends, but this
has proven to be the exception to the rule. Explained in our articles around
the Net, basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or
visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are
most under or overvalued. Despite a 3-10 overall mark, Memphis
has covered five straight. They are 0-7 SU on the road, yet 5-1 their last six
ATS. They are far and away the superior
defensive team, with edges in virtually every category.

 


Advanced News and Notes

Tuesday, November
28, 2006

 

CBB

Maryland-Illinois

SJ-R.com

Seven games and 13 days into the season, the Illini are undefeated heading into an early showdown
against No. 25 Maryland (7-0) at Assembly Hall on Tuesday in the ACC-Big Ten
Challenge (6 p.m., ESPN). After Illinois
beat Bradley 75-71 Saturday to win the Chicago Invitational in Hoffman
Estates
, Weber appreciated the Illini’s
ability to survive the season’s first two weeks despite injuries to junior
forward Brian Randle and sophomore guard Jamar Smith
plus the suspension of guard Rich McBride. Smith isn’t 100 percent, the guard
said, and his ankle was tender after the game.A
schedule that included Austin Peay, Savannah
State
and Florida A&M didn’t hurt.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

CBB

Ohio State-North Carolina

Press Notes

Ohio State
will be participating in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge for the fifth-consecutive
year. Ohio State
first participated in the event during the 2002-03 season
against Duke in Greensboro, N.C.,
a 91-75 Blue Devils’ victory. Georgia Tech traveled to Ohio
State
in 2004 and won 73-53. The
Buckeyes traveled to Clemson in 2004-05 and fell to the Tigers, 80-73. Ohio
State
defeated Virginia Tech in Columbus
a year ago, 69-59, for its first victory in the event. The last time Ohio State
was ranked No. 1 in either the coaches or media men’s basketball poll was
against Cincinnati (3/24/62) in a loss to the No. 2-ranked Bearcats (71-59) in
national title game in Louisville, Ky. Ohio State is 49-3 all-time as the No. 1
team (AP). Ohio State’s
last four games as the No. 1 team have been played on neutral courts. The
Buckeye’s last true road game as the No. 1 team was a loss at Wisconsin
(3/3/62), 86-67. North
Carolina
enters the game ranked No. 6/7. Ohio
State
is 45-36 all-time when
playing in a game in which both teams are ranked. The Buckeyes are 201-51 when
playing with an AP Top 10 ranking. Ohio
State
is 300-91 when playing with
an AP Top 25 ranking.

Iowa-Virginia Tech

Press Notes

Iowa (2-3)
concludes a five-game road swing Wednesday, Nov. 29 at Virginia Tech (3-2) as
part of the annual ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Game time is 6:05 p.m. CT at VTU’s Cassell Coliseum (9,847). Iowa
dropped a 67-64 contest at Arizona State
Nov. 25 in its last outing after posting a 1-2 record in the Paradise Jam. Iowa
defeated Toledo 78-65 in the first
round before losing to 10th-ranked Alabama
72-60 in the semi-finals and Villanova 89-60 in the consolation round. Virginia
Tech is 3-2 on the season after dropping two of three games in the Old Spice
Classic in Florida. The Hokies
defeated lost to Southern Illinois 69-64 Sunday after a
77-56 win over Montana and a
71-68 loss to Western Michigan. Iowa
holds a 2-3 record in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, including a 2-0 record at
home, an 0-1 record on the road and an 0-2 record at
neutral sites. Iowa lost to Maryland
in Baltimore in 2000 before
defeating Georgia Tech in Iowa City
in 2001. Iowa lost to Duke at the
United Center
in Chicago in 2002 and lost at Florida
State
in 2003. The Hawkeyes
defeated North Carolina State
45-42 in Iowa City a year ago. Iowa
did not participate in the event in 2004 and 2005.

Miami (Oh)-Xavier

Press Notes

Xavier is off to a 4-1 start with its lone loss to Alabama,
55-63, in its final game of the Paradise Jam. In its most recent game, Xavier
collected an 86-68 win against American on Saturday. Wednesday marks the 94th
meeting between Miami and Xavier
with the Musketeers holding a 48-45 edge in the all-time series. When playing
on Xavier’s home court, the Musketeers are 30-17 against the RedHawks. Last season, the Musketeers posted a 75-65 win at
Millett Hall. The last time the teams met at the Cintas Center
(Nov. 22, 2004), Miami
collected a 66-54 win to snap a seven-game losing skid on Xavier’s home court. Miami
University
’s men’s basketball team
continues a four-game road stretch when it travels to Xavier. Illinois,
which entered its Nov. 24 game against the RedHawks
averaging 81.2 ppg, 41.2 rpg and shooting .511 from
the field, was bothered by a persistent RedHawk
defense which gave up just 51 points to the Illini,
out-rebounded them by six boards and held them to 37.8 percent shooting from
the field. It also was the smallest margin of victory for Illinois
this season, with no team getting within 20 points of the Illini
in their previous five wins. Rutgers’ 44 points against Miami
on Nov. 25 marked the fifth time this season the RedHawks
have restricted an opponent to less than 60 points. The previous day, Miami
held Illinois, which was
averaging over 80 points per game, to 51 points. Over the past three seasons, Miami
has confined opponents to less than 60 points 33 times, including 16 times last
season.

 


GodsTips Monday

Monday, November 27,
2006

NFL SPECIALIST MNF SIDE PLUS HOOPS

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NBA

GOLDEN STATE +3 Spurs

The Spurs have their kryptonite: playing on back-to-back
nights. They are 9-20 their last 29 ATS on the second of consecutive nights. Golden
State
just beat Utah,
the hottest team in the NBA and beat them soundly 91-78. The home team is 13-4
in the Warriors games.

Yes, the Spurs have been unbeatable—literally—on the road
this year. But playing back-to-back
nights against good teams is what they have struggled with over the years and
their nucleus is the same. So will the
results be.


BetonSports360.com For Monday

11-27-06

ESPN GOY ON MNG SIDE, BLUE RIBBON
ON O/U AND A CBB PLAY BIGGER THAN BOTH

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PRO BASKETBALL

>>>LEVEL 2 PLAY is
on PHILADELPHIA over Miami

Forensic ATS information on this game: Miami 5-18 off
cover, 9-22 home opponent averages 48 or fewer rebounds per game, 7-17 opponent
averages less than 20 assists per game, 6-16 if they scored 100 or more pts
last game, 1-10 home off road win, 10-22
home off win, Philadelphia 8-3 off double digit loss


Sunday GodsTips

Sunday, November 26,
2006

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our technical nightmare at OffshoreInsiders.com
  

NFL

ATLANTA -3 New Orleans

These are the types of games we exploit.  We told you time and time again,
inconsistency is the biggest enemy of the oddsmakers and square players, but a
huge asset to sharp players. Just as we told you flat out, when Michael Vick
was off the two best back-to-back games of his career and laying big points on
the road, he would fall flat on his face. 
He’s done it his entire career. 
But just when it looks like Atlanta
is better off benching him, he comes out and looks like a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. That’s what history says will happen today,
especially against the craptastic defense of New
Orleans
.

The Saints have returned to earth, losing 3-of-4 SU.  But history does not say this is when they
will rebound. The rode a lot of emotion early in the year and we rode
them.  They are not sneaking up on
everyone anymore. Saints star receiver Marques
Colston will be less than 100 percent, but we expect
him to play. However he is hurt enough that he missed practice Friday.

Atlanta, on
the other hand, gets two very important players back Sunday, defensive end John
Abraham and MLB Ed Hartwell. it will mark the first
time all season the two have been on the field at the same time. “That’s one of
the biggest reasons why we haven’t been playing well or playing like we’re
capable of playing,” linebacker Ike Reese said of their assortment of injuries.
“You have to realize how our defense is built, and those guys are a big part of
our defense. Coming into the season, we knew they’d be big parts to the success
of our defense.

Atlanta will
be much closer to full strength by putting Hartwell back at middle linebacker,
moving Keith Brooking back to his more-natural weakside-linebacker
spot and allowing linebacker Demorrio Williams to be
used only during passing situations. 
Hartwell said he’s not only healthy, but he’s strong for the final six
games. While other players are starting to feel the rigors of the preseason and
10 regular season games, he and Abraham are just getting started.

“A lot of the teams, the players’ legs are tired. We’re
fresh,” Hartwell said. “We’re going into the rest of the season and into the
playoffs with fresh legs. That’s scary right there. We have some players that
are going to run around with a motor that you usually don’t see at the end of
the season.”

 


BetOnSports360.com Sunday

11-26-06

7-0 SATURDAY! AFC NORTH GAME OF ALL TIME, NBA L5 TOO!

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PRO BASKETBALL

>>>LEVEL 3 PLAY is
on LA Clippers/Denver OVER

Forensic ATS information on this game: Denver over 8-0
after 205 or more points were scored, over 31-13 home opponent losing road
record,  LA Clippers over 13-3 opponent
makes less than 76% of their free throws, over 11-2 when playing their 4th
game or less in 10 days, over 8-0 road playing 5th or less game in
14 days, over 26-15 home favorites, over 16-4 after three or more consecutive overs, over 6-0 road v. teams w/ winning record,