It’s a tough call, sports fans.
Will Peyton Manning complete two more passes in the Super Bowl than Zydrunas Ilgauskas’ combined points and rebounds during today’s Cavaliers game against the Detroit Pistons?
Or will Tiger Woods’ fourth-round score in the Dubai Desert Classic be higher than Bernard Berrian’s total receiving yards?
Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday, the biggest day of the year in sports and sports betting. Counting so-called “proposition” bets like the two mentioned above, there are more than 300 different wagers being offered for this year’s big game – the Indianapolis Colts against the Chicago Bears in Miami’s Orange Bowl. You can bet on how long it will take Billy Joel to sing the national anthem, the outcome of the pregame coin flip and an array of individual and team performances.
It’s no wonder folks who normally wouldn’t bet on whether a traffic light will change from red to green will gamble on the Super Bowl.
“For the professional bettor, it’s just another game,” said Las Vegas-based gambler Andy Iskoe.
“For the public at large, it’s the only game they’ll bet all year,” Iskoe said. “It’s sort of like an excuse for a New Year’s Eve party a month later.”
Nevada sports books are expected to accept more than $100 million in wagers for this year’s Super Bowl, topping last year’s record handle of $94.5 million. Worldwide, between legal sports books, offshore Internet gambling sites, hometown bookies and office pools, Super Bowl wagering is estimated at more than $1 billion.
“Punters” in Ireland and the United Kingdom are expected to bet $16 million on the Super Bowl at Paddy Power Plc’s 250 betting shops.
“It’s our biggest American sport of the year,” said Paddy Power spokesman Darren Haines. “For an event that takes place in the middle of the night here, that’s quite exceptional.”
Early last week, about 80 percent of Paddy Power bettors had put their money on the Bears, a seven-point underdog.
“People who know more about it than me think they’ve seen enough in Chicago that they can pull off an upset,” Haines said.
Five thousand miles away in Las Vegas, professional sports gamblers also think the Bears taking the points is a smart bet.
“I like the Bears’ defense more than the Indianapolis offense,” said John Kelly, who hosts a weekly radio show devoted to sports gambling. “With the seven-point head start, I think you’re obligated to take the underdog.”
(The point spread is not a prediction of a game’s outcome. Instead, it is a number that sports books hope will split wagering evenly between the two sides, minimizing their risk.)
Kelly said oddsmakers are acutely aware of professional bettors during the NFL’s regular season when setting point spreads and other odds. But Super Bowl betting lines are made with the general public in mind because casual bettors are much more likely to pick the favorite.
Jay Kornegay, executive direc tor of the race and sports book at the Las Vegas Hilton, said the Colts would be favored by only 4 or 4½ points if the game were played at a neutral site during the middle of the season.
“There’s no doubt the Colts are the better team,” Kornegay said. “But I don’t know whether they are going to win.”
By the middle of last week, most bettors at the Hilton also were putting their money on the Bears, Kornegay said. He expects – and hopes – that Colts money will pour in this weekend.
(For what it’s worth, the team picked by oddsmakers as the favorite in the previous 16 Super Bowls has “covered” the point spread 11 times. The favorite failed to cover three times, and twice the game resulted in a “push” – a tie on the point spread that resulted in bettors getting their money back.)
Steve Fezzik, who runs a Las Vegas-based sports betting syndi cate, also thinks the Bears will “cover” – lose by fewer than seven points. But the Dayton native thinks the real value is in the proposition bets.
Fezzik – a pseudonym he uses to protect his identity – said he’ll have as many as 100 wagers on the game. Oddsmakers often treat proposition bets as a “nuisance,” which can lead to mistakes that sharp players love to exploit, he said.
“There are a lot of proposition bets that have a lot of value if you’re a savvy pro and know what you’re doing,” Fezzik said.
One of those proposition bets Fezzik said he always makes is whether there will be overtime. There has never been overtime in the previous 40 Super Bowls played. (You would have to bet $1,200 at one online sports book to win $100 on a no-overtime wager.)
“I know one of these years I’m going to get burned,” Fezzik said.
Just in case you’re interested, Ilgauskas, the Cavs center, is averaging a combined 20 points and rebounds a game this season; Manning is averaging 22 completions a game.
Good luck. Chances are you’re going to need it.
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer