Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)
As you enjoy the All-Star break, the sideshows and the
manlove debates, we want to share with you our crib sheet for the NBA second
half. These are proactive trends we look
to happen, rather than react when it’s too late:
played their best basketball in up tempo games. When we saw Coach Mike Woodson
bring attention to this, we researched using the most important numbers.
They are an uncanny 7-2 SU when the total is 200 or
higher. In slower paced games (199.5 or less) they are 14-29, so that stat is
big. The fact they enter the break going over 8-4 represents an effort by the
Hawks to pick up the pace. We look for
to run more up tempo, making the over an edge to keep an eye on.
Lamar Odom and
Lakers benefit from the rest: The Lakers do not have a lot of talent beyond
Kobe Bryant, who has had to be a one-man show too often this year. Lamar Odom
finally looked like the player many expected the first 21 games of the
year. He then went down with a knee
injury. Since his return, his numbers are off: down 2.9 points from his
pre-injury and he’s shooting a horrid 39.7 percent. According to Coach Phil Jackson, Odom is
around 80 to 85 percent of his full strength.
No player will benefit from the break more than he. This is both mentally and physically. Because
he is so valuable to the depth challenged Lakers, his return to 100 percent
will be consequential and should sneak under the oddsmaker’s radar. We expect
some extra value for the
after the break.
Mavericks will be a
value to go against: Not exactly an exclusive story—the Mavericks are
playing out of the collective skull. However, the oddsmakers noticed. Betting
on Dallas right now is like purchasing the trendiest completely sold out video
game a week before Christmas—no matter how hard you shop you will have to pay
way over market value.
As we so often state, sharp players find line value in
teams that often win without covering or lose while staying within the number. Assistant
coach Del Harris expressed merely winning the division is not the Mavs
priority. “We’re shooting for the big flag”. Look for
to pace themselves as winning games handily will carry a low priority.
They can win games effortlessly and still fail in the
wallet. God help the books if they go in a slump. Look for the Mavericks to miss the covering
the number by a small margin very often from now until the regular season
ends.
All-Star break a
Bulls market: The Bulls staggered into the break. But they also finished out with a seven game
road trip, followed by a close home loss, and then they flew through a blizzard
before fading late to
They are a better team than that. Few teams need the break more than they do. We
look for them to come out of the homestretch gate quickly.
Joe Duffy plays are on GodsTips.com.
He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO
of OffshoreInsiders.com, the
premier hub of world-class handicappers.