Conference Tournament News and Notes For the Sports Bettor

Here are some sharp player news and notes from
the staff of OffshoreInsiders.com

Wednesday, March 7,
2007

Providence-West Virginia

West Virginia
is 4-1 SU on neutral courts. However two of the neutral court wins were in Charleston,
West Virginia
. Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com reminds us, “One of
the biggest blunders that square player makes is handicapping a neutral court
as if it is a road game.” The square may overreact to West
Virginia
’s 2-6 road Big East mark.

St. John’s-Marquette

Although St. John’s
will have the closest of any team to a home court advantage, they will enter
this game without their leading scorer and rebounder Lamont Hamilton. He is a
first-team all-Big East selection.

UAB-Marshall

It’s the seventh meeting in the last four years with UAB
holding a 4-2 edge. However the teams
split this year and the six games were decided by a total of just 40 points.

Arizona State-Washington

Washington
enters with great momentum having beaten USC and UCLA. However the pressure is on as they likely
will have to win four games in four days to make the NCAA Tournament. Seventeen
of Washington’s 18 wins have come
at home. Their only win away from home
though was to ASU 66-61. This game is at the Staples
Center
in Los
Angeles
.

Arizona State
was competitive down the stretch losing by a combined 10 points to Washington
State
, Arizona
and UCLA.

Oregon State-California

The Golden Bears won both meetings, but each went to the
last shot of regulation, one going to overtime.

Richmond-Fordham

Richmond did
not play a neutral game, but went 2-11 SU on the road. Fordham enters on a four-game winning streak
in which their offense got progressively better culminating in two games in
which they shot 54.9 percent or better.

SMU-Southern Miss

Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com says the key to finding dark
horses in March is betting on teams that lost a lot of close games during the
regular season. SMU has six conference losses by five-points or less. The
Mustangs are 2-0 on neutral sites beating Illinois
State
and McNeese
State
.

We will keep an eye on game day injury information. SMU closed out the year without three key
players who could be back: Bamba Fall, Derrick Roberts and Devon Pearson. Fall
is their best defensive player.

St. Louis-Duquesne

After being buoyed by changing to an up-tempo attack, the
Dukes have dropped their last seven. Duquesne did win the only meeting this
year to go to 4-1 all-time in the series. Over/under bettors will look to see
which team can set the pace. Duquesne is
an up-tempo team while the Bilikens play at a snail’s pace.

Thursday, March 8,
2007

Michigan State-Northwestern

Points will be tough to come by as Michigan
State
led the conference is
virtually every defensive category, only once in 31 games allowing more than 47
percent. Northwestern is fourth in points per game defense, but ninth in the
more accurate field goal percentage defense. Six of MSU’s
10 losses were by seven or fewer points.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com. In his scorephone days as “JD of the ACC” he
was given the moniker of “Mr. March” for his 18 hour days and unparallel
winning.


How Kaplan Fled

Gary Kaplan used to throw lavish parties in Costa Rica and plaster the name of
his thriving online-gambling company on buses in New York. Now, the founder of
BetOnSports PLC and the multibillion-dollar industry he helped spawn are in
much-reduced circumstances — the man on the run, the industry in disarray.
Kaplan, 48, is a fugitive from a racketeering-conspiracy and fraud indictment
filed last year in U.S. District Court in St. Louis charging him with heading a
criminal enterprise that illegally took in more than $3.5 billion in wagers
since 2001.
Several colleagues of Kaplan also have been charged, including BetOnSports’
former chief executive, David Carruthers, who was arrested at the Dallas-Fort
Worth airport in July during a stopover on a flight from London to the
company’s headquarters in San Jose, Costa Rica. Carruthers and several others
charged in the case have pleaded not guilty and are awaiting trial.
Kaplan’s whereabouts are unknown.
The Kaplan indictment is part of a broad federal crackdown in which executives
from other foreign online-gambling operations and credit-card processing
companies also have been indicted.
Last October, Congress passed a law banning almost all forms of online
gambling. Recently, the Justice Department served subpoenas for records on the
investment banks that helped BetOn­Sports and other online-gambling companies
raise money through public stock offerings.
Industry observers estimate that online wagering, which had hit about $12
billion a year, is down by as much as 50 percent. BetOnSports largely has
closed its operations. Federal authorities estimate that 98 percent of the
company’s business came from the United States.
The saga of BetOnSports and Gary Kaplan demonstrates how some online-gambling
sites rose fast and crashed hard by operating at, or beyond, the edge of the
law.
While Kaplan has a checkered background that includes run-ins with law
enforcement, he may have gotten as far as he did in part by surrounding himself
with executives like Carruthers, who came to BetOnSports with a mainstream
business background.
Before Kaplan became an international online gambling impresario, the native of
New York was a bookie and had been busted in 1993 by that state’s authorities
for running an illegal sports-betting operation, according to his indictment.
He moved to Florida, where he allegedly continued his bookmaking operation, and
then on to Aruba and Antigua before later finally settling in San Jose. The
Costa Rican capital, with light-handed gambling regulation and a ready work
force, began attracting other online betting operations.
Kaplan made a splash. He took over a nine-story office building in a
shopping-mall complex and outfitted it with a day-care center for workers’
children as well as luxurious suites and a rooftop pool for visiting high
rollers that BetOnSports sometimes flew in for huge galas.
Obsessed with security
BetOnSports’ headquarters also housed a shooting range — a reflection of
Kaplan’s fascination with guns and an obsession with personal security, say
people who know him. He, his wife and two children routinely traveled with
armed bodyguards.
The bodyguards were, at least in part, “an ego thing,” said Kenneth Weitzner,
founder of Eye on Gambling, a website that tracks Internet gambling.
Kaplan created the illusion that he thought went with a successful gambling
operation, said Weitzner, who visited Kaplan at his Costa Rican operation.
Another acquaintance called Kaplan “tough and intimidating.” In one tale, he
supposedly shot a computer monitor after BetOnSports lost big on a football
game.
As BetOnSports grew into one of the biggest online gambling companies, it tried
to move mainstream. Kaplan hired veteran gambling-industry executives, such as
Carruthers, who had worked for Ladbrokes PLC, a major British wagering company.
In 2004, BetOnSports had an initial public offering in London that raised about
$100 million and its stock was listed on a branch of the London Exchange.
Sites operated openly
While Internet gambling is legal in many countries, the U.S. long has contended
that it violated various federal statutes — even before the specific ban was
enacted last fall.
Federal officials made periodic efforts to attack online gambling, but the
companies often managed to operate relatively freely in the U.S. BetOnSports
was able to run U.S. marketing campaigns, including ads on 250 New York City
buses in 2003.
Even as the industry soared, federal agents were building criminal cases. Some
of BetOnSports’ “customers” in 2002 and 2003 turned out to be undercover
investigators gathering evidence for last year’s indictment.
BetOnSports’ name appeared in news reports in connection with a 2005 criminal
case filed by New York prosecutors against an allegedly mob-connected gambling
operation that was sending bets to an entity in BetOnSports’ headquarters in
San Jose.
In those reports, BetOnSports officials said the entity simply leased office
space and was evicted after the indictment. Bet­OnSports wasn’t charged in the
New York case.
Crackdown questioned
Some observers find the federal government’s crackdown on Internet gambling
curious, given the national explosion in casinos and lotteries in recent years.
These people wonder whether the initiative will backfire by pushing gamblers to
less-reputable operations.
The recent criminal cases and legislation are “an anti-consumer-protection
movement because they’re eliminating the most reputable publicly traded
companies,” said Nelson Rose, a law professor in California who is an expert on
gambling laws.
In recent years, BetOnSports and others, including some U.S. casino operators,
had lobbied Congress to legalize online gambling, arguing that it could then be
regulated and taxed.
As for Kaplan, he is being sought by U.S. and international law-enforcement
officials, including Interpol, whose website carries a “wanted” poster for him.
Although his home was in Costa Rica, some believe he has left that country. One
rumor has him and his family in Israel, there on an Israeli passport.
If Kaplan is apprehended or returns voluntarily to the U.S., he will have to
answer the indictment filed against him in St. Louis.
If convicted, he could face a lengthy prison sentence and large financial
penalties.
Source: St. Louis Today

Not All March Madness Betting Beliefs are Urban Legends

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Our last article articulated our enthusiasm regarding an
ESPN Insider series. It was scientific study that found common attributes on
overachievement and underachievement teams in March Madness. We believe close
scrutiny and application will only increase our “Lord of the Dance” status.

A great many of our articles, over the years, focused on
exposing and fading gambling myths. But not all commonly held beliefs are untruths.

There were some trends that the research found are more in
tune with perception. Perhaps topping the list is the importance of experience.
Coaches with at least 10 tournament appearances and teams with at least four
straight tournament bids did very well both in beating higher seeds or holding
serve when they were the better seeded team.

However, not surprisingly “experience” was significantly
more affective when combined with other top performing factors, such as
frontcourt scoring ability, “star” power (if you didn’t read our previous
article, defined as “All American”). This is consistent with what we’ve
stressed for years. Having been there
and done that is icing on the cake, but not the entire package by any means. In
other words, a talented and seasoned team is better than a gifted newbie, but
maturity in and of itself has little value if not backed by ability.

One finding that I’m not sure whether to categorize it as
contrarian or widely accepted, but instead classify it under a more significant
umbrella: invaluable foreknowledge. When united with other attributes, teams
that enter the tournament on a one-game losing streak do exceptionally well in
the tournament.

This should come as a surprise to nobody, though it likely
does. We used the terminology of the study, but perhaps the term “streak” is a
misnomer. Teams that enter the Dance off of one and only one loss obviously are
not “streaking” in the wrong direction. This of course is not flawless. Hypothetically they could have lost 4-of-5 as
an example, but it would be the exception. Capturing conference championship
means winning three or four games in a row, usually in as many days and it the
case of the big conferences, with as little as three days rest before the Field
of 65.

A team off a loss is almost always an at-large team and
will generally be better rested than the conference champs. A little wake-up
call before the tournament starts will be a positive for a quality team. Let’s
face it, teams that are good enough to make the Field of 65, somewhere along
the line showed they have an ability to rebound from a one-game setback.

Not to mention, both the NCAA committee and the betting
public can tend to overreact based on an early exit in the conference
tournaments.

The ESPN quantitative analysis of course, was not gambling
specific, so hence it will not produce direct and specific systems to apply.
However, the trial and error has beyond reproach produced very advantageous
rules of engagement for the sports gambler during March Madness pointspread
betting.

Joe Duffy is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard
scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
the premier hub of world-class handicappers.