South Region Early Rounds

By Jordan Walters
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

The South Region sees the No. 1 team in the polls, Ohio State, as the No. 1 seed. However, even though the Buckeyes are the polls’ top team, they were sent to the South instead of staying in the Midwest. NCAA March Madness Tournament No. 1 overall seed Florida was, for some reason, tabbed as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest. More on the Midwest tomorrow, but here is a breakdown of the South Region’s first-round games and projected second-rounders (with WagerWeb.com odds in parentheses):

1 OHIO STATE (-22) vs. 16 CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE: The Buckeyes, champs of the Big Ten regular season and tournament, are streaking, having won 18 games in a row. Freshman star center Greg Oden is playing his best of the year, averaging 17 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks in winning the Big Ten Tournament MVP award. Ohio State will have no problem with these Blue Devils, who won the Northeast Tournament. CCSU has won 17 of 18 … but who are we kidding? Pick: Ohio State.

8 BYU vs. 9 XAVIER (-1.5): Brigham Young, an at-large from the Mountain West, is back in the NCAAs for the first time since 2004. The Cougars are great at home, winners of 31 straight home games, which leads the NCAA Basketball. Obviously, this game won’t be at home, however. Keena Young, the MWC Player of the Year, is the key player for BYU. Xavier, meanwhile, an at-large pick from the Atlantic 10, has won eight of nine, but is heavily dependent on the 3-point shot. The Musketeers usually win a game or two in the NCAAs. Pick: Xavier.

5 TENNESSEE (-7) vs. 12 LONG BEACH STATE: The Vols, an at-large from the SEC, are a pressing, fast-paced team. Bruce Pearl’s club won its final four regular-season games, including beating ranked Alabama and then-No. 1 Florida, before being upset in the SEC Tournament by LSU. This is another club that lives behind the 3-point line. Long Beach State, the winner of the Big West Tournament, is back in the tournament for the first time since 1995. The 49ers also like to put up points, so look for the over in this game but the deeper Vols to advance. Pick: Tennessee.

4 VIRGINIA (-7.5) vs. 13 ALBANY: The Cavaliers, an at-large pick from the ACC, are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2001. This team is totally backcourt dependent, with guards Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds the only players averaging in double figures in points. The Great Danes of Albany, who won the America East Tournament, are in the NCAAs for the second straight year. Jamar Wilson is the star of this club, which almost upset top-seeded UConn last year. Pick: Need to pick at least one big upset … but I just can’t do it here, although it is very, very tempting. Pick: UVA.

6 LOUISVILLE (-5.5) vs. 11 STANFORD: A battle of Cardinals vs. Cardinal. Louisville, an at-large from the Big East, are back in the tournament after a year’s absence. Rick Pitino’s balanced squad is playing well, having won seven of eight, including wins over ranked Pittsburgh and Marquette. Stanford, an at-large from the Pac-10, was likely one of the last four at-large teams given a bid. The Cardinal struggle on offense at times but do have twin 7-footers Brook and Robin Lopez to clog the paint. Pick: OK, here’s the upset — Stanford.

3 TEXAS A&M (-13.5) vs. 14 PENN: The Aggies, an at-large from the Big 12, are in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments for the first time and are a chic Final Four pick Senior guard Acie Law IV is a star for Texas A&M and lives for the big shot, something that is lacking on most college basketball teams. Penn, the Ivy League champ, is in its third straight NCAA Tournament. This is a typical Penn/Ivy League squad: plays safe, smart basketball and doesn’t beat itself. However, the pressure and talent of A&M is too much. Pick: Texas A&M.

7 NEVADA (-1) vs. 10 CREIGHTON: This is arguably the best matchup of mid-majors in the first round. Nevada, an at-large from the WAC, is in its sixth straight NCAA Tournament. The Wolf Pack have a superstar in All-American forward Nick Fazekas, but the key may be whether senior guard Kyle Shiloh plays. He missed the Wolf Pack’s loss to Utah State in the WAC Tournament with a hamstring strain. Creighton, the winner of the deep Missouri Valley Tournament, is coming off its best win of the season, upsetting Southern Illinois in the MVC Tournament. This is a solid, blue-collar team that won’t wow you. Pick: Nevada.

2 MEMPHIS (-18) vs. 15 NORTH TEXAS: Memphis, the winner of Conference USA’s regular season and tournament, is the hottest team in the country. The Tigers have won an NCAA-best and school-record 22 games in a row. But, everyone seems to question how good they are due to the lack of competition in C-USA (no other team made the tournament). Memphis is athletic and will get after you, which isn’t good news for the Mean Green, who won the Sun Belt Tournament. North Texas, in its first NCAA Tournament since 1988, likes the fast pace as well but won’t have the athletes to matchup. Pick: Memphis.

Projected Second-Round Matchups

1 OHIO STATE vs. 9 XAVIER: This would pit Buckeyes coach Thad Matta against his former club in the Musketeers. This could be a grind-it-out game, with Xavier trying to pull the upset from the 3-point line. However, its tallest player is 6-foot-9 forward Justin Doellman, which means he will be completely mismatched against Oden. Pick: Ohio State rolls on.

4 VIRGINIA vs. 5 TENNESSEE: Up-tempo, up-tempo, up-tempo. That’s what this game likely would be. The guards will decide this one, so who do we like better: Tennessee’s Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith or Virginia’s Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds? Lofton outduels Singletary, so we like the Vols. Pick: Tennessee.

3 TEXAS A&M vs. 11 STANFORD: A&M’s recent struggles and over-reliance on Law IV are worrisome. But then so is Stanford’s youth and struggles to score points at times. Difference will be the Aggies’ pressure defense, forcing Stanford into too many turnovers. Pick: Texas A&M.

7 NEVADA vs. 2 MEMPHIS: The Wolf Pack are another team that is very reliant on one player: Faezkas. Nevada does have plenty of experience (and motivation after last year’s first-round loss to Montana). As much as I want to pick this upset, I go with Memphis. Expect John Calipari to have his team very motivated with all of the talk of this club being overrated and having played no one. Pick: Memphis.

So, I’m looking for the Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 5 seeds to move on.

Look for the West and Midwest Region early-round previews on Wednesday, with a few more upsets likely sprinkled in.

Go to WagerWeb.com to check the 2007 NCAA Tournament odds and to play the 2007 March Madness Bracket Buster challenge.