Sports handicapping news and notes for college football
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Georgia Tech-Notre Dame

Almost all reliable sources agree that Demetrius Jones
will start at QB for Notre Dame or at least be the main signal caller. The
Irish, of course, must replace Brady Quinn, now with the Cleveland Browns.

Missouri-Illinois

Cy McCormick of the MasterLockLine says that among sharp Las
Vegas sports bettors and online gamblers, the
consensus “surprise team” among BCS conferences is Illinois.
“There is a lot of pressure on Missouri
in this game. I see serious upset
potential here.”

Florida International-Penn State

Look for Penn State
coach Joe Paterno to use this game to experiment. Although he has 15 starters back, only one
offensive lineman returns at his original position.

Houston-Oregon

Houston must
replace one of their best quarterbacks ever Kevin Kolb. They face a high
powered Oregon team, trying to
match points with Blake Joseph and Case Keenum
battling for the No. 1 spot. They have
thrown eight passes between them at the college football level.

Houston has
been experimenting with a new 4-2-5
defense and will likely face some no-huddle against the Ducks as they break in
an unfamiliar alignment.

Baylor-TCU

Baylor wide receiver Thomas White admits his Bears are
feeling disrespected over being 21-point underdogs.
Last year, the Bears led TCU 7-0 at halftime. Baylor
coach Guy Morriss has said he watched the game films
from last year’s matchup “about 600 times”.
Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com,
generally considered the top football handicapper in the nation said, “That
sounds like a circled game to me” referring to term used by pointspread bettors
looking for a betting edge in which one team may be more motivated for a
blowout or to keep a game close.

Colorado-Colorado State

Which team gets the best sleep? The kickoff is at 10:00 a.m. local time. Colorado
will be without a lot of projected starters. Michael Sipili,
the probable starting middle linebacker, was suspended with two reserves for
offseason fighting incidents. Last year’s starting quarterback Bernard Jackson
is out with personal issues. He was
supposed to play more of a “slash” jack-of-all-trades position this year. True
freshman Josh Smith, another likely starter, is out with a bruised kidney.

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The Bears have a much more difficult schedule than a year
ago when they won 13 games but the NFC North is so weak that it will be
difficult for Chicago not to win 10 or 11 games and capture a third straight
division title. (2006 regular season records in parentheses):

CHICAGO BEARS (13-3 SU,
8-7-1 ATS): It was a memorable off-season for the Bears who
dispatched team offensive MVP Thomas Jones, took a hard line with disgruntled
LB Lance Briggs, and parted ways with troubled DT Tank Johnson. Chicago
was second in the NFL in points scored last year, although leading the league
in points off turnovers was the main reason for that success. Cedric Benson
takes over at RB for Jones with much maligned Rex
Grossman still behind center. The Bears will win with their solid defense but
the specter of just one Super Bowl loser even making the post-season in the
past six years, looms over their heads.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 68-76
ATS: 73-64-7
HF: 19-18-1
HD: 21-13
AF: 4-4-2
AD: 28-29-4
Sportsbook Buster:
The Bears are a combined 17-2-1
ATS versus AFC West teams (San Diego,
Denver, Kansas
City, Oakland), all of whom they
play this year.
NFL Betting Angle:
Chicago is just 1-6 as a favorite
after a bye week. This year, the Bears are at Oakland
(Nov. 11) after a week off.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8
SU, 7-9 ATS): First year Head Coach Mike McCarthy’s West Style
offense helped the Packers win twice as many games as the previous season but
continued improvement could be difficult to attain this year. QB Brett Favre is
still the mainstay of an offense that will miss RB Ahman Green and doesn’t have a stud at wide receiver. The
line is a work in progress. On defense, the Packers improved dramatically once
DT Cullen Jenkins moved outside, finishing in the middle of the pack (so to
speak), statistically. This is not a very good team but this is not a tough
division, either.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 84-60
ATS: 68-72-4
HF: 29-3-1-1
HD: 4-6-1
AF: 14-17-2
AD: 21-18
Sportsbook Buster:
The Packers are 6-0 ATS versus the Redskins, who they play Oct. 14.
NFL Betting Angle:
Green Bay has failed to cover seven
straight games as a home underdog.

DETROIT LIONS (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS):
Offensive coordinator Mike Martz’ system did not work well in Detroit
where a weak offensive line was responsible for the Lions finishing dead last
in the league in rushing. Head Coach Rod Marinelli
was equally disappointed by his freshly installed defensive scheme which
finished 30^th in the NFL in points allowed. Detroit
fans are hoping that a full year under the new systems will yield better
results this season and they may be right.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 46-98
ATS: 68-73-3
HF: 11-17-1
HD: 26-16-1
AF: 0-6
AD: 31-34-1
Sportsbook Buster:
The Lions have covered five straight games against the Buccaneers, who they
play at home, Oct. 21.
NFL Betting Angle:
Detroit has proven to be a solid
home underdog and terrible home favorite over the last nine years.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-10
SU, 7-9 ATS): Second year Vikings Head Coach Brad Childress,
the offensive architect in Philadelphia, hopes that the addition of draft
choices RB Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma) and WR Sidney Rice (South Carolina) will improve an attack that
ranked just 26^th in scoring last season. Having Tarvaris Jackson as
your starting QB could be a problem, though. The defense lead the NFL against
the run but was last against the pass last season. A better pass rush is needed
if Minnesota is to stay ahead of Detroit
in the fight to avoid the NFC North basement.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 2002-2006)
SU: 79-65
ATS: 67-74-3
HF: 30-28-1
HD: 8-5
AF: 12-19-2
AD: 17-22-1
Sportsbook Buster:
The Vikings are 5-0 ATS versus the Cowboys, who they play in Dallas,
Oct. 21.
NFL Betting Angle:
Minnesota is a bad road team ATS,
especially as an away favorite.

Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog

Article is courtesy of the Greek Sportsbook
one of the few sportsbooks good enough to get the highest endorsement from the
wagering experts at OffshoreInsiders.com

Granted, New Orleans
isn’t going to surprise anyone this year but with a solid cast, a new winning
attitude, and only Carolina as
serious division opposition, the Saints should march to another NFC South
title. The Panthers look good enough to battle for an NFC wild card. (2006
regular season records in parentheses):

NEW
ORLEANS SAINTS (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS): Sean Payton
did the impossible in New Orleans
last season, turning a moribund 3-13 team into a Super Bowl contender. With the
return of QB Drew Brees, twin RB
threats Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, and emerging WR
star Marques Colston, the offense is lethal. The
defense also showed improvement under first year coordinator Gary Gibbs but
lacked aggression, finishing 31^st in the NFL in takeaways in 2006.
The line, led by Charles Grant and Will Smith, is solid but the Saints need
more big-play potential at linebacker and in the secondary. Still, an offense
as potent as New Orleans’ will win
a lot of games.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 64-80
ATS: 69-72-3
HF: 14-24-1
HD: 10-16-2
AF: 9-6
AD: 32-25
Sportsbook Buster:
The Saints are 8-2 ATS their last 10 games versus the 49ers, who they play in San
Francisco, Oct. 28.
NFL Betting Angle:
New Orleans has been a miserable bet
at home, compiling just a 24-40-3 record ATS the last nine seasons.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (8-8
SU, 5-9-2 ATS): Injuries ravaged the Panthers and the team that
made it to the Super Bowl a year earlier couldn’t even make to a winning record
in 2006. The offense struggled last year with inconsistent play from QB Jake
Delhomme and a ground game that finished 24^th in the NFL, prompting
Head Coach John Fox to fire offensive coordinator Dan Henning and replace him
with Jeff Davidson. The Carolina
defense was as good as the offense was bad last year with DE Julius Peppers
leading the way. The Panthers also have a quality secondary and hope that No. 1
draft choice Jon Beason (Miami)
will be the playmaker they need at linebacker.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 64-80
ATS: 71-66-7
HF: 20-27-1
HD: 13-9-2
AF: 8-12-1
AD: 27-19-3
Sportsbook Buster:
The Panthers are 6-0 ATS versus the Saints, their last half-dozen meetings.
NFL Betting Angle:
Carolina is 3-12 ATS as a favorite
of between four and seven points.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
(4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS): While the Saints were going from worst to
first, the Buccaneers were heading in the opposite direction, from first to
worst last year. Head Coach Jon Gruden hopes that
savvy QB Jeff Garcia, who the Buccaneers acquired through free agency, will be
able to run his complex West Coast offense with more precision than Chris Simms
or Bruce Gradkowski did in 2006. Tampa Bay has gotten old on defense, falling
from the top 10 in the league for the first time in a decade last season while
ranking 31^st in sacks with just 25.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 77-67
ATS: 69-69-6
HF: 30-26-2
HD: 9-2-1
AF: 15-18
AD: 15-21-2
Sportsbook Buster:
The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS versus the Rams, who they play at home, Sept. 23.
NFL Betting Angle:
Tampa Bay
was 3-1 ATS last year and is 9-2-1
ATS the last nine seasons in the role of a home underdog.

ATLANTA FALCONS (7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS):
The Falcons didn’t figure to be a playoff contender with QB Mike Vick so their
fortunes are even dimmer now that Vick is likely to miss the season defending himself against a federal indictment for dog-fighting sand
gambling. New Head Coach Bobby Petrino will have to
overhaul an offense that has been dependent on Vick since his arrival in Atlanta
seven years ago. The defense, which played well last
year, gets a new coordinator in Mike Zimmer, from Dallas.

By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 2002-2006)
SU: 70-73-1
ATS: 68-70-6
HF: 22-21-2
HD: 10-17
AF: 9-6-1
AD: 27-26-3
Sportsbook Buster:
The Falcons are 4-0 ATS versus the Lions at home their last four meetings. The
teams meet in Tampa Bay,
Nov. 11.
NFL Betting Angle:
Atlanta is 9-2 as an underdog after
a bye week. This year, Atlanta
travels to Tampa Bay,
Nov. 4, after its open week.

Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog

Article is courtesy of the Greek Sportsbook
one of the few sportsbooks good enough to get the highest endorsement from the
wagering experts at OffshoreInsiders.com

This time last year, sports handicapper Dr. Bob Stohl was
the preferred betting syndicate advisor in reference to college football picks
and NFL picks. Unfortunately, Doctor Bob had a mediocre year at best for those
who wager on football.

Simultaneously, Stevie Vincent a veteran football
handicapping expert was turning the sports betting industry, both Vegas
sportsbooks and online sportsbooks, upside down with his revolutionary forensic
handicapping.

Vincent’s meteoric rise, among high rollers betting on
sports, was not overnight. Ironically Vincent was successful at handicapping
sports but hesitant to gamble for personal reasons. He did admit a “family
member” had a major gambling problem but “not sports betting” so he was
resistant to bet.

He was Executive Editor of the famed scorephone Tailgate
Party, which in the pre-internet days was the choice for real-time sports
betting information and free football gambling picks.

MVP Sportsbook had a program for would-be sports
handicappers. Their model was to build
and market a site for anyone who wanted to open a sports service. In return, parent company, the VO-Group would
have exclusive rights to advertise their sportsbook and online casinos on such
site.

Vincent reluctantly started his career as a professional
sports handicapper via MVP Sportsbook, which was under the direction of online
sportsbook pioneer Dalton Wagner.

Joe Duffy, now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
took advantage of their marketing relationship with VO-Group when he
was General Manager of Freescoreboard.com.

“We used their program as sort of an American Idol for sports
handicappers.” MVP had about 300 handicappers in their program. According to
Duffy, “About 98 percent of them were William Hung,” a reference to American
Idol’s most infamous contestant. Continuing with his American Idol metaphor,
“There was really only one Kelly Clarkson or Carrie Underwood.”

While other handicappers made sales, Vincent was the only
tipster who got clients to continue to renew on a consistent basis. “The
quality of his reports, both in winning and insight was truly second to none”
Duffy asserts.

“We added three handicappers from the MVP program, but
Vincent was the crown jewel,” said Duffy.

Despite the presence of elite handicappers and sports
services the Animal, Leo Shafto, GodsPicks (now
GodsTips), and the SuperLockLine, Vincent found a niche and had a renewal rate
most touts only fantasize about.

Then an even bigger breakthrough happened. University
of PA forensic economist Justin
Wolfers wrote a research paper in which he claimed showed overwhelming
statistical evidence of point shaving in college athletics.

Vincent used some of the basic ideas in the paper to fine
tune his own handicapping techniques and developed the ground-breaking science
of forensic handicapping. “It was a natural progression to what I was already
doing,” says Vincent modestly.

Vincent, whose plays are released on BetOnSports360.com
has become the “unmitigated frontline source of sports bets for the world’s
biggest betting syndicates” according to wagering expert Cy McCormick.

Vincent claims several online sportsbooks have offered him
significant sums of money to give them the plays before he releases to his
clients. He declined. “They will have to
purchase my plays and will have equal access as everyone else.”