Monthly Archives: February 2008

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Top Sports Services and Sports Handicappers

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Yes, the MasterLockLine.com
does monitor sports handicappers at Sportsmemo.com, VegasInsider.com,
VegasExperts.com, ATSedge.com, Covers.com, Covers-Experts.com, Pregame.com,
JimFeist.com, WinningEdge.com, Who2BetOn.com, VegasAdvisors.com,
SuperiorDaily.com, FreePlays.com, Pregame.com,
ScoresandOdds.com, DonBest.com, scorephones, radio touts and more. Generally zero
or one handicapper, though in some cases two even qualify to be re-released on
the MasterLockLine.com

MasterLockLine.com has the top plays from the top sports service in
their highest ranked sports. There are only a select few handicappers,
less than three percent who sell plays, who are good enough to make it on MasterLockLine.com. It’s the handicapping
portal.

Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

NBA Betting For After the All-Star Break

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Here is a sample of the OffshoreInsiders.com
crib sheet: trends and tendencies we look for in sports betting, then
proactively exploit.

Get Healthy Charlotte Please

Anyone who has been a client of ours for years knows how
much we exploit the dichotomous ATS and straight up teams. For those on the
outside looking in, the teams that are most profitable for sharp players are
top shelf teams that often win without covering or bottom dwellers that lose
straight up but are able to cover the spread.

We have isolated the Bobcats as a strong candidate to keep
on our radar screen. It has been a baptism by fire for first-year head coach
Sam Vincent. He has learned from his early missteps, but continues to struggle
with a shorthanded team.

“Leading scorer Gerald Wallace played in only one of the
final six games entering the All-Star break, plus Raymond Felton, Matt Carroll
and Derek Anderson all have bruised knees,” points out Curt Thomas, full-time
NBA handicapper for GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com.

Thanks to their home arena hosting three college
basketball tournaments, Charlotte
plays 15 of 21 games on the road in an upcoming stretch. A horrid 4-18 straight
up on the highway before the break, safe to say they will be getting tons of
points. Thus, they just need to be more competitive to cover. They don’t need
to win outright.

With a coach who has progressed with on the job training,
a team that should, repeat should be healthier, they will be a more competitive
team—the type of team that covers, but remains under the radar because they
keep losing straight up.

Mavericks Go-Against in Three Games in Four
Night Situations

The Mavericks blockbuster trade to get Jason Kidd will be
a classic “step back to take two steps forward” move for the handicappers. The Mavs bench was already thin and they diluted it further to
get the soon-to-be 35 year old legs of Kidd.

Losing DeSagana Diop makes them a smaller team in a conference that has
most of the league’s top big men. The move should help come playoff time, but
we look to fade them against teams with quality big men and in unrested
situations.

However, because of the trade, the public will perceive
them as better and the oddsmakers must oblige.

Hawks and Over

Atlanta is one
of the most underachieving teams in the league. They have two problems:
coaching and point guard. Scratch the latter. Atlanta
got Mike Bibby in a trade with the Kings. With Joe
Johnson, the Hawks have a legitimate 1-2 punch.

The Hawks like to run and they got a necessary cog. We
look for the Hawks to sneak up on the oddsmakers and also have a lot more high
scoring games.

The author, Joe Duffy is part of Dream Team at GodsTips,
the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. Check
out all the free and premium information for sports betting at OffshoreInsiders.com


Sports Betting News

Odds To Win NBA Championship

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As the post All-Star Game stretch run is set to begin, sportsbooks have the Boston Celtics and
Detroit Pistons as the favorites to win the 2008 NBA Championship.

Boston is +265
while Detroit is +275 according to Bookmaker. NBA betting expert
Curt Thomas from GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com says the oddsmakers recognize the Eastern
Conference Champion will have an easier road than the Western Conference. “We
could see a team win 50 games in the West and not make the playoffs,” says
Thomas, “thus no team had an quick path while the East should come down to the
Pistons and the Celtics.”

Phoenix and
newly acquired center Shaquille O’Neal are next at +500, followed very closely
by the Spurs at +505. Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com
emphasizes, “The Spurs have been there, done that,” and adds that they
are better than their record indicates because of several injuries.

Perennial bridesmaid and first-round upset victim last
year, Dallas is +600. The Lakers,
who recently added Pau Gasol
to the equation, are +700.

Can LeBron James repeat and exceed last year’s one-man
show? The Cavaliers are +2000, showing little respect for the defending Eastern
Conference Champions.

Who is the best long shot? Thomas says it’s New
Orleans at +1100. “Their starting five is their
strength and benches shorten up in the postseason,” says the NBA betting guru.

To win your bets for the NBA stretch run, March Madness
and more, visit OffshoreInsiders.com


Sports Betting News

Next President of the United States: Betting Odds Update

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The Potomac Primaries and of course Super Tuesday results
taken into account. Bookmaker
has Barack Obama as the betting favorite to be elected President of the United
States in the 2008 Presidential Election.

Obama is -110 in
the POTUS race. Fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton is +205, while Republican John
McCain is +220. The field, which would include any independent or third-party
candidate, is +7000.

RealClearPolitics.com, which has among its most popular
features, a consensus of all the national polls, has hypothetical primary
election match-ups quite close. Obama has a 47.7-44 percent lead over John
McCain, but McCain gets the upper hand against Clinton
47-45.2.

McCain is struggling with support among conservatives.
According to sports
betting expert Joe Duffy, no political novice either, “Many conservatives
will stay home if Obama is the Democratic nominee, but if it’s Clinton,
it will be as simple as ABC,” Duffy pauses, “Anybody but Clinton.”

Though McCain is the presumed Republican nominee, the
Democratic race is tight, but perhaps not says according to the oddsmakers. Bookmaker has Obama a
prohibitive -260 favorite to be the party nominee, with once-frontrunner Clinton
now at +200.

According to Duffy, Clinton
is a live dog. “The Clinton machine
is ruthless,” Duffy said reminding bettors of Bill Clinton’s nickname this time
16 years ago, “The Comeback Kid”.

BetUs
Sportsbook allows the more general bet of which party will win the White
House. Democrats are -225, while Republicans are +175.

Follow American Idol
betting, updated POTUS
betting odds and more on OffshoreInsiders.com


Sports Betting News

What to Expect For the Rest of February NCAA Betting

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Here is a sample crib sheet of news, notes, trends and
tendencies that OffshoreInsiders.com handicappers
use.

Arizona, Not a Wise Bet?

Nic Wise is Arizona’s
only true point guard and will likely not be back for the Pac-10 Tournament,
perhaps even the NCAA Tournament. This is a huge loss and the Wildcats will toil
against good pressure defenses. Those who best halftime lines, look for Arizona
to struggle late in games with no depth at point guard.

However, should Zona struggle as
expected then get Wise back earlier than anticipated, we will ride them,
knowing their game will return.

Oregon State, Ride Them

Okay, let’s explain our successful dichotomous spread team
theory again. We discount 98 percent of
trends, but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. In short, if a
team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or visa versa, you ride for
that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.

Oregon State
has a rallying cry. They have used reports from an “unnamed coach” being quoted
as saying OSU quit on the season. They will be
getting a lot of points, in their remaining contests, in arguably the toughest
conference. Because they are a rare substandard team in the Pac-10, Beavers
bettors will benefit from sandwich games, letdown games, and look-ahead
contests. They should be a good spread time from here on out.

Carolina, Vulnerable ATS

It’s not likely North Carolina
is going to sneak up on any team or oddsmaker. But
now they have several key injuries: star Ty Lawson
remains sidelined, Marcus Ginyard is playing wounded
on both feet, Deon Thompson is less than 100 percent and one of their best
bench players, Bobby Frasor is out for the year.

“Chemistry” is one buzzword we actually welcome and
subscribe to the theory. Keep in mind that the Tar Heels have already had three
overtime games in the ACC and three games decided by two or fewer points in
their first 10 conference games.

Yes, they have depth, but not only is that being tested
but Carolina has had to change
lineups often. While other teams are gelling this time of the year, Carolina
is making adjustments.

Be Leery of Betting on Kansas State

The Wildcats have been one of the great surprises in the
nation under first year coach Frank Martin. But they’ve gone from hunter to the
hunted. Also, they have their biggest tests coming up at home to Texas
on Feb. 26 followed by a huge rematch against a Kansas
team they recently conquered. However, the rematch is at Allen Fieldhouse. We think K States Vegas betting value has
reached its peak.

The author, Joe Duffy, is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com.
It’s approaching conference tournament time. From the mid-majors to the “BCS”
conferences, nobody picks more winners than Dream Team at GodsTips, the anchor
of OffshoreInsiders.com


Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Bet On Sports: Yards Per Points in Football Pointspread Betting

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Each and every season all sports should be a learning
experience in sports betting. We always reflect and critique ourselves,
evaluate what changes have been made by the oddsmakers and how the alterations
in the sports landscape affect handicapping.

High on the list of strategy refinements this football
season was the realization that I found a football handicapping Holy Grail
about a quarter of a century ago yet let it slip through my fingertips.

In the pre-Internet days, one of my top sources for data was
the Sports and Gaming Newswire, one of Jim Feist’s companies. I believe that
was the first time I encountered the yards per point statistic.

On offense it is calculated by yards gained divided by
points scored. On defense, it’s yards allowed divided
by points given up. The theory is it measures efficiency on both sides of the
ball.

A low number on offense is good, meaning a team does not
waste yardage or “leave points on the field” so to speak.

A high number on defense is good, meaning a lot of successful
defensive stands. However, conventional
thinking (handicapping’s ultimate oxymoron) would say bet on the efficient
teams and against the inefficient.

The stat proved not only worthless, but if anything one
would be better off fading the stat. Little did I know how true the latter was
and how consistent it has been with so many other improvements and refinements
I’ve made in my handicapping over the decades.

We’ve written many articles on how we measure the accuracy
and validity of a team’s performance. We don’t have the time and space to go
over every detail but in short, we use net yardage record (a team that gets
more yards “wins”) where others use straight up won-loss record. We use net
yards per game comparisons where the squares employ points per game.

Others “rank” teams by total yards per game in passing,
rushing and overall both offensively and defensively. In lieu of that, we use
the more reliable yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play relative to
the cumulative average of their opponents to date.

For elaboration, visit the archived sports betting
strategy articles at OffshoreInsiders.com,
but our supposition is that these stats demonstrate which teams outplay or
underplay their stats and hence, which teams have the biggest upside and which
have the biggest downside. Insert the terms overvalued and undervalued.

Remember, a team’s Vegas/offshore value is most affected
by their performance. But the teams that have the best, yes we said best yards
per point stats are teams that are going to be overvalued and teams with the
worst undervalued.

Why? The most efficient teams can only improve by
maintaining the high bar they have set for themselves while increasing actual
production.

The squads that, for example, waste offensive yardage by
not converting them into points (bad yards per point rating) have demonstrated
they are capable of more than their bottom line production has shown.

There is little debate that poor efficiency is more correctable
than poor production. Remember, it’s not like one can retroactively bet stats.
The more efficient teams will have the best spread records to date for the most
part. As gamblers, we want to know beforehand which teams will have a reversal
of fortune—literally.

This past season, we beta tested (tracked but did not bet)
the theory. Voila. Yes, the teams that were wasting yards did have the biggest
upside and the least wasteful teams did have the bigger downside. Essentially,
it proved to be a great a great way to “buy low and sell high” and apply it to
handicapping.

Best of all, the more the previously referenced stats: net
yardage, yards per rush/pass/play and yards per point theories corroborated
each other, not surprisingly, the stronger the play. If the data contradicted, of
course it meant there was no statistical angle to exploit.

The beta testing is done. We are greatly looking forward
to next football season.

No need to wait until next football season to bet on
sports. The author, Joe Duffy makes his picks on GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. With March Madness betting around the corner,
note that Duffy’s prowess and work ethic has earned him the monikers of Mr.
March and the Lord of the Dance.