Barack Obama will win a landslide election by an electoral margin of 384-154 according to Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy, also widely accepted as the top political prognosticator.
Duffy jokes he has correctly predicted every Presidential Election but one. “I really thought General Winfield Scott would pull of the upset against Franklin Pierce,” says Duffy, tongue planted a bit in cheek.
Duffy admits his projections, much like his winning sports picks, are not based on any type of inside information. “I just know where the best and most precise data is,” says Duffy. He utilizes the consensus polls at RealClearPolitics.com and the political betting odds, which are without question the most accurate precursor.
Brian Gould of ScoresOddsPicks.com explains why the oddsmakers trump
Says Duffy, “Ignore the talking heads on television, there are only three swing states:
Even if McCain sweeps the swing states, the best he will do is lose 358-180. According to the presidential betting line, Democrat Barack Obama is -875 to capture the White House. Cy McCormick of the online betting syndicate MasterLockLine.com says, “These are Michael Phelps type numbers,” in comparing Obama’s frontrunner status to the heavy odds sportsbooks posted on the Olympic swimmer.
InTrade gives Barack better than a 90 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. Well known sportsbook Sportsbook.com has the number of states each candidate will win. According to Duffy, it’s likely 30-to-32 for Obama. Winning 26-30 is -120, while 31-25 is +120.
BetUs Sportsbook offers what appears to be a living lock. The over/under for number of states McCain will win is 21.5 and investors can bet under at -110. “The chances of McCain getting at least 22 states are very slim,” predicts Duffy confidently.
Is there one state where a major upset could occur? McCain to win
Follow the real time White House odds, track possible last-minute shockers and know who will win each state before the networks project at OffshoreInsiders.com