Here’s hoping the Wimbledon odds give us Federer/Nadal or at least Federer Murray. While Saturday’s UFC card doesn’t have anything of that magnitude, it does offer some important lightweight matchups to follow the TV show finale fights. Let’s make some sports predictions for the main events.
Diego Sanchez (22-2) vs Clay Guida (25-6)
Ultimate Fighter odds: Sanchez -260, Guida +200
If the rumors are true, only one man stands between Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez and a lightweight title show against the winner of Penn/Florian: Mr. Clay Guida. Guida is making a career out of winning judges over as an underdog and finds himself in that role again on Saturday. Sanchez, a strong grappler who won his season of The Ultimate Fighter two weight classes up at middleweight, is rapidly climbing the lightweight ranks. He combines good ground skills with technical if not powerful striking and can submit people too. He’s also one of the most intense fighters you’ll ever see, which makes Guida an interesting opponent. Guida is equally intense, but more in an up-tempo, plucky way. He uses his wrestling skill to grab hold of opponents and hang on tight. A lot of fight fans don’t like his style, but he scores points by dictating the pace of his bouts.
I still think Clay Guida is biting off more than he can chew in this one. He does well when he has a strength advantage over other fighters but the bigger Sanchez should take that away. Go with the more polished fighter here.
Best betting management pick: Diego Sanchez -260
Nate Diaz (10-3) vs Joe Stevenson (34-10)
Ultimate Fighter odds: Diaz -140, Stevenson +110
Bettor confidence in Joe Stevenson continues to plummet, and it’s no wonder—the former No. 1 lightweight contender keeps losing important fights. First BJ Penn, then Kenny Florian, then Diego Sanchez—all outclassed Stevenson by showing more versatility. Stevenson is a strong, stocky guy and he makes a name for himself with his ground-and-pound, but he’s gone away from what he does best of late. Diversifying is a good idea in theory, but not if you don’t do it well. Stevenson can’t seem to accomplish anything in the striking game, so it may be time for him to abandon it. Even if he does, though, the super-lanky Nate Diaz is a tough ground opponent with his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background. Stevenson has the power edge but Diaz may be the better technical fighter. I’d go with Diaz since Stevenson is giving us no reason to pick him of late.
Best betting management pick: Nate Diaz -140