Fedor odds may be the one special exception in MMA in terms of who or what can excite fans besides the UFC. FedorEmelianenko is still considered by many to be the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world and, while most of us want to see him fight Brock Lesnar, he still has an extremely tough opponent in world No. 2 Josh Barnett on August 1 at Affliction. Let’s break down each fighter.
THE CHAMPION – FEDOR “THE LAST EMPEROR” EMELIANENKO MMA odds: -500 Record: 30-1 Notable victories: MinotauroNogueira, MirkoCro Cop, Mark Coleman, Andrei Arlovsk
STRENGTHS: Too many to list. Fedor is a true mixed martial artist, excelling in multiple disciplines. He’s a monster on the ground, using his sambo and judo not only to submit pretty much anyone he wants, but also to escape dangerous situations. When he wants to use them, his hands are extremely heavy, capable of dropping even the biggest of fighters. He’s also very patient, not afraid to take some punishment if it helps him set up an advantageous position.
WEAKNESSES: Not many that we know of, but his strategy of “not preparing for an opponent and just feeling him out during a fight” could someday come back to bite him if he faces someone with a set game plan.
THE CHALLENGER – JOSH “THE BABYFACED ASSASSIN” BARNETT MMA odds odds: +300 Record: 24-5 Notable victories: Randy Couture, MinotauroNogueira, Dan Severn
STRENGTHS: He’s a powerful wrestler who’s very tough to stop once he gains the mount. He can finish opponents with a ground-and pound or submit them, which is his preferred method of victory. Though he’s not a true striker, he has heavy hands and can knock guys out if he catches them flush.
WEAKNESSES: Barnett is not quite a one-dimensional fighter, but he’s not nearly as versatile as Fedor. Emelianenko can match him on the ground and Barnett is nowhere near Fedor’s ability standing up. Most of his losses have come against superior strikers—three of them to Cro Cop.
Daily sports pick: Fedor. He’s the best in the world and, while the savvy Barnett should be his toughest test in a long time, it’s just weak betting management to go against Fedor.
British Open betting is days—hours! — away, so we can’t waste time. Time to assess the top picks for the most storied of all the golf majors. The Open Championship’s field is unlike any other in that it attracts a truly international crowd. That makes it harder to handicap too, as we don’t have as much knowledge of the field as we would for a traditional PGA event. Let’s look at the top offshore sportsbook picks this week. Which are legit and which are traps?
Tiger Woods (+185)
Here’s an interesting stat: the last three winners at Turnberry were ranked No. 1 in the world at the time. Does that mean Tiger has this one locked up? I say no. My guess is that that Price, Norman and Watson were probably doing just fine off the tee when they won at Turnberry, and we can’t say the same about Tiger right now. Turnberry punishes inaccurate drives and Tiger has struggled to find the fairway all year, so bettors should be careful. A “bad” finish for him is still probably 10th or better, but I don’t see a victory in the cards.
Sergio Garcia (+2000)
He’s always around the top five at the Open but he’s simply not playing very well this season. There are plenty of other golfers playing much better who offer more value, so it’s poor betting management to pick Sergio this week.
Padraig Harrington (+2200)
Don’t you dare get caught in this trap! Yeah, he won the last two British Opens, but the current Harrington may as well be someone else. He’s missed five straight cuts and has zero top-10s this season. Stay far away from him this week.
HenrikStenson (+4000)
He has top-10s in three of the last four majors, so you could say he’s due. The icy Stenson also won the World Match Play and the Players Championship, so he’s shown that he can hang with the big boys. He’s a solid pick and he offers nice sportsbook value.
Martin Kaymer (+2800)
You’ll be hard pressed to find a “sexier” pick for the Open than Kaymer. He’s won the last two European Tour events, so he’s probably hotter than any other golfer right now. However, I’m still not crazy about him given his +2800 value. There are some better picks out there that offer you much more at the sportsbook.
The UFC 100 odds are in their eleventh hour and, while most of us have done our homework and placed our bets, there are still a few names out there that perplex us—the fighters who make us say “Who’s that guy?” Knowing some extra intel on the no-names could make or break your night at the offshore sportsbook, so let’s review a few non-household names.
Who the heck is…
Paulo Thiago?
He’s a Brazilian police officer who took the UFC by storm when he knocked out Josh Koscheck in his debut. Since his UFC 100 betting opponent, Jon Fitch, is Koscheck’s teammate and has a similar skill set, does that mean you should place a bet on massive underdog Thiago (+300) to beat Fitch (-400)? Not necessarily. Almost all of Thiago’s previous victories came via submission. In other words, this Jiu-Jitsu specialist is by no means a knockout artist, so his knockout win may have been a fluke. He was arguably losing the fight before catching Koscheck with a Hail-Mary uppercut. Since Fitch’s chin is so good—even the powerful Georges St-Pierre couldn’t knock him out—don’t bet in your sports predictions on Thiago dropping him. He’s more likely to try and submit Fitch, and the chances of that happening are slim. Fitch hasn’t been submitted since his first career fight seven years ago and he’s a fantastic wrestler. Even though Thiago is undefeated at 11-0, he’s one “no-name” I’d avoid in your UFC 100 picks.
Yoshihiro Akiyama?
Here’s a relative unknown who’s actually a household name overseas. Akiyama, a veteran Japanese kickboxer and Judo fighter, is ranked by MMA Weekly as the No. 10 middleweight in the world. He’s a versatile fighter, capable of big throws, knockouts with his hands or feet, and submissions. His opponent for UFC 100, Alan Belcher, is supposed to be a stepping stone, but Belcher is still a good enough fighter that he’ll test Akiyama. A win over Belcher would legitimize Akiyama’s hopes for UFC success, while a loss would make him look like a bust. Based on scouting reports and sportsbook software predictions, he should win, so I’d go with Akiyama.
While the UFC 100 fight card will be on the minds of many sportsbook betting players this weekend, you can’t forget about Tour de France betting as cycling’s biggest event heads into its eighth stage on Saturday. The Pyrenees is often the place in the event where the best seperate themselves, and heading into it, Alberto Contador and Lance Armstrong will try and track down RinaldoNocentini.
Brice Feilli won the seventh stage, and the first mountain stage in the competition, while previous leader Fabian Cancellara finished the race just over nine minutes after Feillu to drop out of the top spot. Nocentini picked up the yellow jersey and he leads Contador by six seconds, and Armstrong by eight. Contador was actually two seconds behind Armstron before the stage began, but a late push for the finish line allowed him to leapfrog his teammate. Much ahas been made about whether these two rivals could work together on the same team, and Armstrong didn’t force the issue when Contador broke away, staying just close enough to still be a threat according to gambling software.
The seventh stage is actually the longest on the course this year, while Sunday’s ride is one of the shortest, but it’s all mountains, which shows you who the best conditioned rides are. This is where we expect Contador, Armstrong and the rest of the Astana team to put a gap between them and the Tour de France betting pack.
The Atlanta Braves and the Colorado Rockies will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Coors Field.
Ace righthander DerekLowe will take the mound for the Braves to start this game. Lowe is 7-7 this season with a 4.56 ERA.
Starting this game for the Rockies will be UbaldoJimenez. The righthander has a 3.86 ERA to go along with a 6-8 record this season.
Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
The Rockies scored twice in the bottom of the eighth inning to defeat the Braves 7-6 on Thursday, as -145 favorites. That game’s 13 runs sailed OVER the posted over/under (9).
ChrisIannetta had two hits and drove in two runs to lead the Rockies. JuanRincon got the win in relief, and Huston Street closed out the game for his 22nd save.
JeffFrancoeur had three hits and drove in two runs for the Braves, who were +125 underdogs. MikeGonzalez gave up two runs in relief to suffer the loss.
Current streak: Colorado has won 4 straight games.
Team records: Atlanta: 41-44 SU Colorado: 46-39 SU
Atlanta most recently: When playing on Friday are 4-6 Before playing Colorado are 5-5 After playing Colorado are 7-3 After a loss are 4-6
Colorado most recently: When playing on Friday are 4-6 Before playing Atlanta are 4-6 After playing Atlanta are 3-7 After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider: Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Colorado Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado Colorado is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta Colorado is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games Colorado is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Next up: Colorado home to Atlanta, Saturday, July 11
The Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Citi Field.
The Reds will give the ball to starter Bronson Arroyo in this one. Righthander Arroyo is 8-8 this season with a 5.85 ERA.
It’ll be FernandoNieve toeing the rubber for the Mets in this contest. RighthanderNieve is 3-2 with a 2.93 ERA so far this season.
Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
The Reds were defeated 9-6 by the Phillies last time out, as +130 underdogs. That game’s 15 runs sailed OVER the posted over/under (10).
EdwinEncarnacion had homered and drove in three runs in a losing effort. Micah Owings gave up eight hits and seven runs over 4 1-3 innings of work.
The Mets were pounded 11-2 by the Dodgers last time out, as +135 underdogs. That game’s 13 runs made it OVER the posted over/under (9).
GarySheffield went 2-for-4 at the plate with one RBI for the Mets, who were +135 underdogs. LivanHernandez gave up 11 hits and eight runs over four innings in the loss.
Current streak: Cincinnati has lost 2 straight games.
Team records: Cincinnati: 41-43 SU New York: 40-44 SU
Cincinnati most recently: When playing on Friday are 4-6 Before playing NY Mets are 4-6 After playing Philadelphia are 5-5 After a loss are 5-5
New York most recently: When playing on Friday are 5-5 Before playing Cincinnati are 7-3 After playing LA Dodgers are 5-5 After a loss are 3-7
A few trends to consider: Cincinnati is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing NY Mets Cincinnati is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Mets Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games NY Mets are 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati NY Mets are 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Cincinnati NY Mets are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home NY Mets are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Next up: NY Mets home to Cincinnati, Saturday, July 11
The fans at CitizensBankPark will be treated to a game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies when they take their seats on Friday.
The Pirates will give the ball to starter ZachDuke in this one. Lefthander Duke is 8-7 this season with a 3.28 ERA.
Duke’s opponent in this one will be JoeBlanton. The Phillies righthander has a 4.69 ERA to go along with a 5-4 record this season.
Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
The Pirates were shut down 5-0 in the series rubber match to the Astros on Wednesday, as +150 underdogs. That game’s five runs went UNDER the posted over/under (8).
CharlieMorton gave up 10 hits and five runs over four innings in the loss.
The Phillies clinched their four-game series with a 9-6 victory over the Reds on Thursday, as -150 favorites. That game’s 15 runs sailed OVER the posted over/under (10).
JaysonWerth went 2-for-4 at the plate with two RBIs in leading the Phillies. JamieMoyer went five innings for the victory, and BradLidge closed out the ninth with his 17th save.
Current streak: Philadelphia has won 2 straight games.
Team records: Pittsburgh: 38-47 SU Philadelphia: 45-38 SU
Pittsburgh most recently: When playing on Friday are 5-5 Before playing Philadelphia are 4-6 After playing Houston are 5-5 After a loss are 4-6
Philadelphia most recently: When playing on Friday are 4-6 Before playing Pittsburgh are 7-3 After playing Cincinnati are 7-3 After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games when playing Philadelphia Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Next up: Philadelphia home to Pittsburgh, Saturday, July 11
A winning streak will be on the line for the Detroit Tigers on Friday when they battle the Cleveland Indians at ComericaPark.
Ace CliffLee will be the starting pitcher for the Indians on this day. LefthanderLee is 4-8 this season with a 3.45 ERA.
Lee‘s opponent in this one will be EdwinJackson. The Tigers righthander has a 2.59 ERA to go along with a 6-4 record this season.
Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
The Indians scored in bunches early and then held on for a 10-8 victory over the White Sox on Thursday, as +110 underdogs. That game’s 18 runs sailed OVER the posted over/under (10).
KellyShoppach belted a grand slam home run and finished with five runs batted in. TonySipp earned the win in relief, and KerryWood sealed the win with his 11th save.
The Tigers scored early and held on for a 3-1 victory over the Royals in Wednesday’s series finale, as +115 underdogs. The team’s played UNDER the posted over/under (8).
MarcusThames, CleteThomas and RamonSanitago drove in one run apiece. LukeFrench tossed 6 1-3 innings for the win, giving up six hits and one run.
Current streak: Detroit has won 2 straight games.
Team records: Cleveland: 34-52 SU Detroit: 46-38 SU
Cleveland most recently: When playing on Friday are 6-4 Before playing Detroit are 5-5 After playing Chi White Sox are 6-4 After a win are 3-7
Detroit most recently: When playing on Friday are 6-4 Before playing Cleveland are 4-6 After playing Kansas City are 7-3 After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games when playing Detroit The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit Cleveland is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland Detroit is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit’s last 11 games The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Next up: Detroit home to Cleveland, Saturday, July 11
The Chicago Cubs will be fighting to snap a losing streak on Friday when they take on the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field.
Righthander Chris Carpenter will take the mound for the Cardinals to start this game. Carpenter is 6-3 this season with a 2.32 ERA.
Starting this game for the Cubs will be RichHarden. The righthander has a 5.48 ERA to go along with a 5-5 record this season.
Odds aren’t yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
The Cardinals scored all their runs in the eighth inning to defeat the Brewers 5-1, as -115 favorites on Thursday. The team’s played UNDER the posted over/under (9).
RyanLudwick cracked a three-run homer to lead the way. JoelPineiro tossed a complete-game three-hitter for his seventh win of the season.
The Cubs lost 4-1 to the Braves in the series rubber match on Wednesday, as -140 favorites. The team’s played UNDER the posted over/under (9).
KosukeFukudome homered in a losing effort. KevinHart surrendered four hits and one run over five innings.
Current streak: Chicago has lost 2 straight games.
Team records: St. Louis: 47-40 SU Chicago: 41-41 SU
St. Louis most recently: When playing on Friday are 5-5 Before playing Chi Cubs are 7-3 After playing Milwaukee are 5-5 After a win are 5-5
Chicago most recently: When playing on Friday are 7-3 Before playing St. Louis are 2-8 After playing Atlanta are 6-4 After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider: St. Louis is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis’s last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi Cubs’s last 8 games when playing at home against St. Louis Chi Cubs are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs’s last 11 games
Next up: Chi Cubs home to St. Louis, Saturday, July 11
Hard to believe football odds aren’t leading the way in sportsbooks yet; you think they were based on all the action! But no—UFC 100 odds are getting tons of looks and, of course, so is baseball. Let’s squeeze in a few MLB picks before the All-Star break.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Friday, July 10, 2:20 p.m. ET
Brad Thompson (2-5, 4.92) vs Rich Harden (5-5, 5.35)
Brad Thompson isn’t particularly relevant to the Cards, to fantasy baseball players or to sports bettors at this stage of his career. All you need to know about him for your MLB predictions is that he’s better on the road than at home. The main guy to analyze here is Rich Harden. The Cubs’ (former?) ace is his normal self on the road (2-1, 2.87) but, for whatever reason, he’s been a nightmare at Wrigley Field this season (2-4, 7.65). He’s allowing boatloads of homers and walking too many guys. Against streaking Albert Pujols and rising star Colby Rasmus, it doesn’t seem like Harden and the Cubs have a chance on Friday.
Best betting management pick: Cardinals
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
Friday, July 10, 10:05 p.m. ET
Joba Chamberlain (4-2, 4.04) vs Joe Saunders (8-5, 4.44)
If you missed the Fourth of July fireworks, don’t worry; Joe Saunders will serve up plenty for you on Friday night. He’s allowed an American League-worst 20 homers this season and has a 7.63 lifetime ERA. If that’s not a recipe for disaster against the powerhouse Yankees, nothing is. Make sure you bet over the total.
C.C. Sabathia is hit/miss in 2009 but he’s solid on the road, going 4-0 with a 2.74 ERA so far as a Yank. He’ll get more than enough run support to down the Angels.
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