UFC 100 Betting – Handicapping the Non-title Fights

When you look at the UFC 100 fight card, make sure you don’t just look at the title fights. Mir/Lesnar and St-Pierre/Alves will be awesome but the card has several other exciting fights to bet on. Let’s make a few more picks.

Dan Henderson (24-7) vs Michael Bisping (18-1)
UFC odds:
Henderson -300, Bisping +240

For the umpteenth time in a row, Dan “HendoHenderson draws a world-class opponent. He’s too good a fighter to ever get a break, so he faces the tough, well-rounded Michael Bisping in a middleweight bout. Henderson’s game is wrestling, as he’s a two-time Olympian, but he also has knockout power in both hands, so he can drop an opponent if he needs to. Having fought the likes of Anderson Silva and Rampage Jackson, the seasoned Henderson is a major sportsbook favorite.

However, I wonder if odds makers aren’t giving Bisping enough credit in their sports predictions. The Englishman has just one career loss, and many fight fans even felt that decision should’ve gone to him over Rashad Evans. Bisping lacks finishing power but he’s a solid technical striker who can score points. He also has a strong chin from what we’ve seen so far, so he has a slight edge on the standup. Henderson can likely overpower Bisping on the ground, but it’s no guarantee, as Bisping’s Jiu-Jitsu is underrated.

I’d pick Henderson if his money line was more reasonable, but I can’t pass up Bisping at +240. He’s evenly matched with Henderson, so I lke his value.

Sportsbook software pick: Bisping +240

Jon Fitch (22-3) vs Paulo Thiago (11-0)
UFC odds: Fitch -400, Thiago +300

The sportsbooks don’t respect Paulo Thiago at all despite his perfect record, and I can’t really blame them. Here we have a relatively unknown fighter who reportedly gets a title shot if he wins despite having only one fight in the UFC before this weekend’s bout. He knocked out Josh Koscheck with an uppercut in his debut and, while the punch’s power was impressive, it seemed fluky. I’m not convinced he’s in the same class as Jon Fitch. The underrated Fitch is almost a poor man’s Georges St-Pierre, as he combines good standup with great wrestling but doesn’t do either as well as the champ does. Look for Fitch to make a statement against Thiago as he pushes for a rematch with GSP.

Sportsbook software pick; Fitch -400

4th of July: Wimbledon Betting Odds and National TV Baseball Top Schedule

It’s the 4th  of July Daily Sports Roundup headlined by the Wimbledon finals schedule.  The Yankees host the Blue Jays, the Sprint Cup Series races at Daytona, and the Williams sisters hit the court at Wimbledon.

In Atlanta it’s the Peachtree Road Race, though there are no betting odds.

Wimbledon final odds…

It’s Serena Williams versus Venus Williams. The Wimbledon betting odds has Venus -165 in the All-American final.

Meeting up in the Junior Circuit  . . .

The Yankees will be looking to get a second straight win from Chien-Ming Wang (1-6, 10.06 ERA) when they host the Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon. Righthander Wang picked up his first victory of the season in a start against the Mets last time out, allowing two earned runs on four hits in 5 1-3 innings of work. Wang will be in tough Saturday, though, as the Jays counter with ace righthander Roy Halladay (10-2, 2.56 ERA), who has allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine of his past 10 starts. Toronto has won 10 of Halladay’s 15 starts this season.

Also on the American League’s holiday slate for Saturday: Seattle at Boston, the White Sox at Kansas City, Oakland at Cleveland, Tampa Bay at Texas, Baltimore at the Angels, and Detroit at Minnesota. The Tigers will send Edwin Jackson (6-4, 2.49 ERA) to the mound against the Twins’ Francisco Liriano (4-8, 5.62 ERA).

Taking the field in the Senior Circuit . . .

Tim Lincecum (8-2, 2.37 ERA) will be gunning for his third straight victory on Saturday afternoon when his Giants play host to the Astros and Russ Ortiz (3-3, 3.36 ERA). Righthander Lincecum has gone the full nine innings in three of his past four starts, allowing just four earned runs over his past 35 innings pitched. Righthander Ortiz has surrendered only seven earned runs over his past three outings (20 1-3 innings), but Houston managed to drop all three of the contests.

Rounding out the National League slate for Saturday: Atlanta at Washington, Milwaukee at the Cubs, St. Louis at Cincinnati, the Dodgers at San Diego, Pittsburgh at Florida, Arizona at Colorado, and the Mets at Philadelphia. New York‘s Fernando Nieve (3-1, 2.25 ERA) will take the mound in the battle of division rivals, while Philadelphia will counter with Jamie Moyer (6-6, 6.05 ERA).

 

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Roaring around the track . . .

The Sprint Cup Series races under the lights on Saturday night, as Daytona International Speedway hosts the Coke Zero 400. Kyle Busch, the defending champion at this event, is pegged as the 5/1 Vegas favorite to visit victory lane again on Saturday, while Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are right behind him at 6/1. Tony Stewart rounds out the top tier of contenders to win the Coke Zero 400 at 8/1 odds; Stewart holds a 69-point lead on Gordon in the driver standings.

Rounding out the Roundup . . .

Finally, the Wimbledon women’s final will be played out at the All England Club on Saturday, with Venus Williams taking on sister Serena for the title. Venus had no trouble dispatching top-seeded Dinara Safina in the semi-finals on Thursday, winning 6-1, 6-0. Serena, on the other hand, had to sweat out a 6-7, 7-5, 8-6 win over fourth-seeded Elena Dementieva. The oddsmakers like the elder Williams to get another Wimbledon title Saturday, as she’s been pegged as the -165 favorite.

Baseball Betting – Saturday MLB Picks

The UFC 100 fight card seems a mile away, but not to worry; we can pass the time this Fourth of July weekend by betting on baseball. Let’s make some Saturday picks.

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

Saturday, July 4, 1:05 p.m. ET

Roy Halladay (10-2, 2.56) vs Chien-Ming Wang (1-6, 10.06)

Has sinkerballer Chien-Ming Wang turned a corner? He was a nightmare in April and May but Joe Girardi stuck with him. Now, he’s “rewarded” Girardi but returning at least to league-average numbers. Over his last three starts, he has an almost serviceable 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Can he handle the Jays on Saturday?

Well, even if his sinker works, Wang will have to be brilliant to beat Roy Halladay. Doc will likely be on a strict pitch count as he recovers from a groin injury, but he’s a bona fide Yankee killer. In 31 career starts against New York, Halladay is 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA, five complete games and two shutouts. That’s a full season worth of dominance against a powerful team. You have to pick the Jays in your MLB predictions for Saturday.

MLB betting pick: Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

Saturday, July 4, 8:05 p.m. ET
David Price (2-2, 3.93) vs Vicente Padilla (6-4, 4.75)

It’s a tough time to be a Rangers fan, as Texas has dropped precipitously in the standings since a hot May. The news probably won’t get better Saturday; the Rangers not only face the highest-scoring team in the majors, but also a pitcher seemingly designed to specifically dominate them. David Price struggles with his control sometimes and posts the occasional ugly start, but those outings come against patient offenses who exploit his wildness. The Rangers are just about the least disciplined lineup in the league, though. They’ll hack away at Price’s devastating arsenal of pitches. Sportsbook software projects a blowout win for Tampa—sorry, Vicente Padilla—and double-digit strikeouts for Price.

MLB betting pick: Rays

Astros-Giants Lines Preview

The Houston Astros and the San Francisco Giants will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at AT&T Park.
Righthander Felipe Paulino will take the mound for the Astros to start this game. Paulino is 1-4 this season with a 4.53 ERA.
Starting this game for the Giants will be Ryan Sadowski. The righthander has a 0.00 ERA to go along with a 1-0 record this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Giants listed as 125-moneyline favorites versus the Astros, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
The Astros downed the Padres with a series-clinching 7-2 win on Thursday, as a -105 pick’em. The game’s nine runs made it OVER the posted over/under (7.5).
Geoff Blum led the way with a three-run homer and four RBIs for the Astros. Wandy Rodriguez threw seven innings for the victory, allowing seven hits and one run.
The Giants fell 5-2 to the Cardinals last time out, as +125 underdogs. That game’s seven runs went UNDER the posted over/under (9).
Aaron Rowand smacked a two-run homer for the Giants, while Barry Zito gave up all five runs in 4 1-3 innings of work.
Current streak:
Houston has won 2 straight games.
San Francisco has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Houston: 38-39 SU
San Francisco: 42-36 SU
Houston most recently:
When playing on Friday are 8-2
Before playing San Francisco are 7-3
After playing San Diego are 7-3
After a win are 5-5

San Francisco most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Houston are 5-5
After playing St. Louis are 5-5
After a loss are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Houston is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home
San Francisco is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Houston
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Next up:
San Francisco home to Houston, Saturday, July 4

 

Orioles-Angels Odds Preview

The Baltimore Orioles will be fighting to snap a losing streak on Friday when they take on the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium.
The Orioles will give the ball to starter David Hernandez in this one. Righthander Hernandez is 1-2 this season with a 4.86 ERA.
The Angels will counter Hernandez with Ervin Santana. Righthander Santana has a 7.47 ERA to go along with a 1-3 record this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Angels listed as 155-moneyline favorites versus the Orioles, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
Bobby Abreu belted two home runs and drove in four runs to lead the Angels to a 5-2 victory over the Orioles on Thursday. The Angels won the game as -165 favorites, while the seven runs went UNDER the posted over/under (9.5).
John Lackey pitched eight innings for the win, giving up two runs off four hits, and Brian Fuentes notched his 23rd save.
Luke Scott homered in a losing effort for the Orioles, who were +145 underdogs. Jeremy Guthrie gave up nine hits and five runs.
Current streak:
Baltimore has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Baltimore: 35-44 SU
Los Angeles: 43-34 SU
Baltimore most recently:
When playing on Friday are 2-8
Before playing LA Angels are 1-9
After playing LA Angels are 4-6
After a loss are 4-6

Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Baltimore are 7-3
After playing Baltimore are 7-3
After a win are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
LA Angels are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Baltimore
LA Angels are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games
LA Angels are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home
Next up:
LA Angels home to Baltimore, Saturday, July 4

 

Dodgers-Padres Lines Preview

The fans at PETCO Park will be treated to a game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres when they take their seats on Friday.
The Dodgers will pin their hopes on the pitching of righthander Hiroki Kuroda in this game. Kuroda has a 2-4 record and a 3.77 ERA this season.
Starting this game for the Padres will be Chad Gaudin. The righthander has a 5.11 ERA to go along with a 4-6 record this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Dodgers listed as 145-moneyline favorites versus the Padres, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
The Dodgers scored a 1-0 win over the Rockies in Wednesday afternoon’s rubber match, as -140 favorites. The team’s played UNDER the posted over/under (8.5).
Rafael Furcal drove in the only run to lift the Dodgers. Ramon Troncoso tossed the win in relief, and Jonathan Broxton pitched the ninth for his 19th save.
The Padres were defeated 7-2 by the Astros in the series finale on Thursday, as a -105 pick’em. The game’s nine runs made it OVER the posted over/under (7.5).
Kevin Correia gave up eight hits and six runs over five innings in the loss.
Current streak:
San Diego has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 50-29 SU
San Diego: 34-44 SU
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Friday are 8-2
Before playing San Diego are 7-3
After playing Colorado are 6-4
After a win are 4-6

San Diego most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing LA Dodgers are 2-8
After playing Houston are 2-8
After a loss are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers’s last 5 games
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers’s last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Dodgers’s last 10 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Diego’s last 10 games when playing LA Dodgers
San Diego is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
San Diego is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
Next up:
San Diego home to LA Dodgers, Saturday, July 4

 

Tigers-Twins Odds Preview

The Minnesota Twins will be trying to extend a winning streak on Friday when they take on the Detroit Tigers at The Metrodome.
Lucas French will be the starting pitcher for the Tigers on this day. Lefthander French is 0-0 this season with a 0.00 ERA.
It’ll be Kevin Slowey toeing the rubber for the Twins in this contest. Righthander Slowey is 10-3 with a 4.41 ERA so far this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Twins listed as 162-moneyline favorites versus the Tigers, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
The Tigers lost 5-1 to the A’s in the series rubber match last time out, as -135 favorites. That game’s six runs went UNDER the day’s posted over/under (7.5).
Gerald Laird drove in the only run, while Justin Verlander surrendered four runs off six hits over six innings of work.
The Twins capitalized on two errors as they defeated the Royals 5-1 in the series rubber match on Wednesday, as a -110 pick’em. The six runs went UNDER the day’s posted over/under (8.5).
Michael Cuddyer hit a solo home run and finished with two RBIs. Glen Perkins allowed 10 hits and one run over seven innings in the win.
Current streak:
Minnesota has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Detroit: 43-35 SU
Minnesota: 41-39 SU
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Minnesota are 3-7
After playing Oakland are 5-5
After a loss are 6-4

Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Friday are 2-8
Before playing Detroit are 6-4
After playing Kansas City are 5-5
After a win are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit’s last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit
Next up:
Minnesota home to Detroit, Saturday, July 4

 

White Sox-Royals Lines Preview

The fans at Kauffman Stadium will be treated to a game between the Chicago White Sox and the Kansas City Royals when they take their seats on Friday.
The White Sox will give the ball to starter John Danks in this one. Lefthander Danks is 6-6 this season with a 4.08 ERA.
It’ll be Zach Greinke toeing the rubber for the Royals in this contest. Righthander Greinke is 10-3 with a 1.95 ERA so far this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Royals listed as 143-moneyline favorites versus the White Sox, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
The White Sox closed out the Royals with a 4-1 victory in the opener of a four-game series on Thursday, as -140 favorites. That game’s five runs went UNDER the posted over/under (9).
Jayson Nix homered and scored once for the White Sox. Mark Buehrle tossed 8 1-3 scoreless innings to pick up the win.
David DeJesus drove in the only run for the Royals, who were +120 underdogs. Bruce Chen allowed two runs over six innings in the loss.
Current streak:
Chicago has won 6 straight games.
Kansas City has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Chicago: 41-38 SU
Kansas City: 33-45 SU
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Kansas City are 5-5
After playing Kansas City are 5-5
After a win are 7-3

Kansas City most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Chi White Sox are 4-6
After playing Chi White Sox are 5-5
After a loss are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
Chi White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Chi White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
Kansas City is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games at home
Next up:
Kansas City home to Chi White Sox, Saturday, July 4

 

Diamondbacks-Rockies Lines Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Coors Field.
The Diamondbacks will give the ball to starter Max Scherzer in this one. Righthander Scherzer is 5-5 this season with a 3.70 ERA.
The Rockies will counter Scherzer with Jorge De La Rosa. Lefthander De La Rosa has a 5.64 ERA to go along with a 4-7 record this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Rockies listed as 130-moneyline favorites versus the Diamondbacks, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
The Diamondbacks were defeated 3-2 by the Reds last time out, as +110 underdogs. That game’s five runs went UNDER the posted over/under (8.5).
Mark Reynolds homered in a losing effort, while Clay Zavada gave up the winning run and fell to 1-2 on the season.
The Rockies were defeated 1-0 by the Dodgers in the series rubber match last time out, as +120 underdogs. The team’s played UNDER the posted over/under (8.5).
Jason Hammel gave up the only run over a complete-game loss.
Current streak:
Arizona has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Arizona: 31-48 SU
Colorado: 41-37 SU
Arizona most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Colorado are 5-5
After playing Cincinnati are 2-8
After a loss are 3-7

Colorado most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Arizona are 4-6
After playing LA Dodgers are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Arizona is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado’s last 6 games
Colorado is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado’s last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
Next up:
Colorado home to Arizona, Saturday, July 4

 

Rays-Rangers Lines Preview

A winning streak will be on the line for the Texas Rangers on Friday when they battle the Tampa Bay Rays at Rangers Ballpark.
Ace lefthander Scott Kazmir will take the mound for the Rays to start this game. Kazmir is 4-4 this season with a 7.28 ERA.
It’ll be Tommy Hunter toeing the rubber for the Rangers in this contest. Righthander Hunter is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA so far this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Rays listed as 140-moneyline favorites versus the Rangers, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.
The Rays were shut out 5-0 by the Blue Jays last time out, as -130 favorites. The team’s played UNDER the posted over/under (8.5).
James Shields surrendered seven hits and five runs over 7 1-3 innings in the loss.
Hank Blalock hit a walk-off two-run homer as the Rangers got past the Angels 9-7 on Wednesday, as a -105 pick’em. Tht game’s 16 runs sailed OVER the posted over/under (9.5).
Blalock finished 3-for-5 at the plate with two home runs for three RBIs, while Frank Francisco earned the win in relief for a 2-1 overall record.
Current streak:
Texas has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Tampa Bay: 44-36 SU
Texas: 42-35 SU
Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Texas are 7-3
After playing Toronto are 6-4
After a loss are 5-5

Texas most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Tampa Bay are 4-6
After playing LA Angels are 5-5
After a win are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay’s last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Texas’s last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas’s last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas’s last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Texas’s last 24 games
Next up:
Texas home to Tampa Bay, Saturday, July 4