Great minds think alike. Our good friends at Bodog are correct in implying that games are won by players who touch the ball. However, super NFL handicapper Mike Godsey of GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com says he is concerned about Steve Slaton’s short-yard ability not to mention durability.
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Quick, name a team in the NFL that has a better No. 1 running back/No. 1 receiver/No. 1 tight end combo than the Houston Texans Steve Slaton/Andre Johnson/Owen Daniels.
Just for fun, let’s total their cumulative numbers: 4,096 rushing/receiving yards, 235 catches and 20 touchdowns. That’s good. Seriously, find a better trio. Maybe Atlanta’s Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, but Gonzo wasn’t there last year. No wonder the Texans finished a franchise-high third in the NFL last season, averaging 382.1 yards per game.
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So obviously the Texans should be one of the top offensive teams in the NFL again this year if those three and, most important, QB Matt Schaub stay healthy. I say Schaub might be the key because semi-reliable backup Sage Rosenfels is now in Minnesota. Schaub’s backup? Probably Rex Grossman. Indeed, depth on offense might be the only problem, as there isn’t much behind Slaton or Johnson either.
It’s on defense where Houston must improve if it hopes to avoid a third consecutive 8-8 season. Last year the Texans had just 25 sacks as a team despite 12 from former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams (still mad the Texans didn’t take Reggie Bush or Vince Young, Houston fans?). But in Williams, defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, linebacker DeMeco Ryans and cornerback Dunta Robinson (assuming he doesn’t hold out), there is a nice base of talent here. Plus Houston added excellent USC linebacker Brian Cushing in the draft. We’ll see how that unit fares under first-year defensive coordinator Frank Bush.
So is this finally the year the Texans reach the playoffs?
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Here is the Texans’ 2009 schedule, and we’ll break it down after:
Sept. 13 vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Sept. 20 at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Sept. 27 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Oct. 4 vs. Oakland Raiders, 1 p.m.
Oct. 11 at Arizona Cardinals, 4:15 p.m.
Oct. 18 at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Oct. 25 vs. San Francisco 49ers, 1 p.m.
Nov. 1 at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Nov. 8 at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Week 10: Bye
Nov. 23 vs. Tennessee Titans, 8:30 p.m.
Nov. 29 vs. Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Dec. 6 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Dec. 13 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 p.m.
Dec. 20 at St. Louis Rams, 1 p.m.
Dec. 27 at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Jan. 3 vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Strength of schedule: 15th (opponents combined to go 129-126-1, .506, in 2008)
Projected record: 10-6
Bodog over/under total: 8
Bodog odds to win AFC South: 3/1
Bodog odds to win AFC: 16/1
Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 35/1 (subject to change)
Houston needs to start strong to compete in the loaded AFC South, but that hasn’t been a strength of Gary Kubiak-coached teams.
Since Kubiak took over in 2006, Houston is 2-8 in September and last year was 0-3. You have to like at least a 2-1 start this year, as the Texans should be solid favorites at home against the Jets and Jaguars. Plus Houston is 12-4 at home the past two years. Winning at Tennessee might be asking too much, since the Texans haven’t done that since 2004.
The highlights of October include three games against below .500 teams from last year. Having the Bengals as the only AFC North opponent isn’t a bad thing. That game with the Niners is San Francisco’s first-ever visit. The bye probably comes at just the right time in November, following tough road games at Buffalo and Indy. Houston has lost seven straight at Indianapolis and has to play the Colts twice in three weeks; the Texans have been swept by Peyton Manning and Co. the past two years and have just one win against them ever.
Houston should be able to take care of business against those NFC West foes in December, but it might take an upset of the Patriots in the season finale to reach the playoffs. The good news is the Pats may not have anything to play for then and that Houston is 3-0 under Kubiak in season finales.
Another .500 or below season in Kubiak’s fourth year at the helm might cost the coach his job, but I believe this club is on the rise and will sneak in as a wild card in 2009 – if Schaub, Slaton and Johnson stay healthy.
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