UFC 104 betting this Saturday ends a fairly long hiatus by UFC standards—one in which we saw no title fights and got a heavy dose of Kimbo Slice. Lyoto Machida’s title defense Saturday kicks off a stretch in which we’ll see a championship on the line in several months straight. Time to make a pick for Saturday’s big bout.

It’s been a long road back for Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, whom many MMA pundits dubbed the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world just a few years ago. The downfall started when a gassed, disinterested Rua got upset—tapped out—by Forrest Griffin. Shogun aggravated a knee injury during that fight, opted for surgery and missed over a year. Upon returning to fight Mark Coleman at UFC 93, Rua drew criticism for appearing out of shape. At UFC 97, however, the old Shogun returned. He arrived for his bout with Chuck Liddell in good shape and showed his powerful Muay Thai and technically crisp combinations in destroying Chuck Liddell. An aggressive fighter who always goes for the knockout, he’s sure to make Machida work.

THE CHAMPION…

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida
Record: 15-0
Notable wins: Rashad Evans, Tito Ortiz, B.J. Penn
Online betting odds for UFC 104: -450

Defending a title in Machida’s situation is easier than it is for the Phillies in World Series betting. Because Machida is so evasive—statistically the hardest fighter to hit in UFC history—he’s in a great position to retain his title for a long time. Challengers have to be the aggressor in order to “take” the belt whereas champions can hang back, play it safe and wait for a mistake. Machida is an expert at doing just that; he keeps his chin far away from his opponents thanks to his upright Karate stance, waits for them to grow impatient and enter his range, then explodes with counter strikes. His arsenal includes powerful leg kicks, underrated punching power and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to match Rua’s.

Pick: Machida -450. Shogun certainly has the talent to give Machida a serious run but his aggressive style plays into Machida’s hands. Machida, who has never lost a round in the UFC, will hang back and wait for Shogun to expose himself. Don’t be surprised if he becomes the first man to knock out Shogun. After all, no one had knocked out—or beaten—Rashad Evans and Thiago Silva before Machida faced them. Machida’s odds of defending, like the Phillies World Series odds of defending, are excellent.