What is a breakout in fantasy football?
It’s not a dominant rookie. It’s not a veteran like Brett Favre who squeezes out one last good season. It’s a guy who has been around for a while and finally tears down whatever obstacle was holding him back.
Maybe he gets a new coach; maybe he gets into better shape; maybe changes teams; maybe he finally gets a starting job. Most commonly, he was already on the path to stardom and it’s just time to take the next step. For many different reasons, sports betting sharps see guys explode ever year.
Here are my top 10 fantasy breakout picks for 2010.
10. Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts
Everybody loves this guy. Garcon is tough, fast, and a good route runner. He’s already drawn comparisons to Hines Ward and he’s established himself as Peyton Manning’s No. 2 target. The last guy to lock down an unquestioned No. 2 role with the Colts: Reggie Wayne.
9. Arian Foster, RB, Texans
A week ago, Foster was more sleeper than breakout guy. But his role has rapidly expanded in Houston now that Ben Tate landed on injured reserve. Foster could touch the ball 15-plus times a game and be a good RB2 at worst.
8. Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Cardinals
Tim Hightower’s presence on passing downs keeps Wells lower on my breakout list but the Cardinals are committed to running the ball more with Kurt Warner gone. Arizona’s NFL futures aren’t appealing but Beanie Wells is.
7. Johnny Knox, WR, Bears
Mad Mike Martz’s crazy passing attack benefits guys who can get vertical in a hurry. Johnny Knox fits the bill and reports from Bears camp say Jay Cutler locks onto him more than he does any other receiver. That’ screams breakout to me.
6. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos
With Brandon Marshall gone, Josh McDaniels will shift Denver’s focus to the running game. Moreno is a versatile back who can play every down. He flirted with 1,000 yards last year and should eclipse that number this year. You’ll hear his name pop up in many a sports betting podcast.
5. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers
Looking at Finley’s second-half numbers last year, he technically already broke out. He performed at an Antonio Gates-like clip down the stretch, establishing himself as Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target. Because his numbers reflect only a half-season of dominance, you may get him cheap one last time this year.
4. Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens
Flacco’s development looks like a nice, steady curve. He improved in his second season, did a good job protecting the ball and topped 20 touchdowns. He has a great offensive co-ordinator in Cam Cameron and exciting new receivers in Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth. A 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown season is possible or maybe even probable.
3. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers
Remember – breakouts can sometimes be obvious. NFL betting experts and fantasy players are so certain of Mendenhall’s success as a 20-carry back this year that he’s creeping into the first round of almost every fantasy draft. He’s the real deal.
2. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
Mendenhall has less competition for carries but New York’s Shonn Greene has higher upside. He can’t catch a pass to save his life but he’s an explosive, angry runner who could bulldoze his way to huge touchdown totals. He could be the next Larry Johnson or Michael Turner type.
1. Kevin Kolb, QB, Eagles
Breakout picks are often polarizing and Kevin Kolb is just that. Some people think it’s ridiculous to see Kolb ranked around the top eight quarterbacks on so many draft boards when you can count his NFL starts on one hand. But if you believe in the system, as I do, you believe Andy Reid can make a good (not even great) quarterback into a fantasy star. Kolb will make mistakes but he will throw. And throw. And throw. I think he can explode into QB1 status.