Matt Rivers has a huge NFL spread picks winner Sunday is on the Green Bay Packers -9.5 to Chicago.

Reasoning: Jay Cutler and the Bears have had a great season but after the Falcons dispatch the Panthers, which I’m hard pressed to believe won’t happen, then this game will be rendered meaningless and we will see a bunch of reserves for Chicago get action. In this rivalry Lovie Smith’s boys should still compete but they are up against a team that has too much going for them to slip up.

Aaron Rodgers proved a lot to me last week coming back from the concussion and looking as good as he did in what really was an elimination game against the Giants. Now the Packers are involved in another game that they have to win and if they do then they will be in the playoffs. When you factor in their motivation along with a lack of Bears motivation and the home field advantage of Lambeau plus a matter of revenge after losing the first game at Soldier Field then I just do not see this game ending up in single digits.

Green Bay won at the Meadowlands in a shutout against the playoff bound Jets, should have beaten New England on the road with Matt Flynn, squashed the Giants last week and overall have the upside to win the Super Bowl. This team is no joke and that is with a ton of injuries this season. With Rodgers back in the fold and the season once again on the line we are about to see a 31-10 demolition as the men in yellow and green quality for the postseason.

Top expert pick on this game: Green Bay -9.5

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Great sports handicapper Matt Rivers has Michigan State today getting eight from Alabama.

Reasoning: Alabama truly may be the best team in the country. In a one game situation Nick Saban’s squad quite possibly would be favored over anybody on a neutral field. But just like a few seasons ago against Utah at the Superdome how in the world can the Crimson Tide players be all that excited about this game?

Emotions clearly play a major part in this time of the year and going down south in the Capital One Bowl just should not do it for the Tide. Just look at Georgia, Clemson and Miami yesterday alone as neither of the three showed much of anything in games they probably were not destined to play in earlier in the season.  Guys like Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson and Julio Jones are awesome and future NFL players for sure. Greg McElroy is a quality signal caller who can more than hold his own against the Spartans but is also coming off of that injury against Auburn and who knows if that can affect the guy. I can see these Alabama players just going through the motions a bit and all in all for Michigan State to be the far more motivated squad and the team with a chip on its shoulder after being kept out of the BCS.

I do not believe that Mark D’Antoni’s boys are as good as either Wisconsin or Ohio State but the players do have a beef as they were 11-1 and BCS worthy. Plus they were the lone team to down the Badgers and should feel a little hosed. Being left out basically off the field should fuel State and especially so when playing against the defending National Champions.

Look for Kirk Cousins and Sparty to be the more emotional team and stay within this number. A win may be a bit much but it also may not be. After that dreadful implosion against rival Auburn how can the Tide really be all that ready to play today?

Top expert pick on this game: Michigan State from Matt Rivers

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Expanding on the New Year’s and BCS Bowls podcast, it’s the Capitol One Bowl preview from the Citrus Bowl in Orlando between Michigan State vs. Alabama.

Michigan State is an impressive 11-1 straight up, 7-5 against the spread, while Alabama is 9-3 in the newspapers, but 7-5 in the sportsbooks.

The Spartans get 4.9 yards per rush to foes that are permitting an average of 4.4, 8.3 yards per pass to 7.5 and 6.4 yards per play to 5.8.

They allow just 3.6 yards per rush to teams that usually get 4.3, 6.5 passing yards per attempt to 7.3 and 5.0 yards per play to 5.6.

Alabama gets 5.0 yards per rush to teams that normally allow 4.3, 9.2 passing yards per attempt to 7.4 and 6.9 yards per play to 5.7.

The Crimson Tide defense allows 3.6 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4.3, 6.1 passing yards per attempt to 7.5 and 4.8 yards per play to 5.7.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Alabama is 3-8 as an underdog. The Crimson Tide is 5-0 outside the conference, but 2-9 off straight up loss.

Over/under trends: The Spartans have gone over 48-19 as underdogs. Alabama has gone over 6-1 outside conference.

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It’s Penn State vs. Florida in the Raymond James Bowl. The Gators are a seven-point favorite with a total of 48. Here is the official betting preview.

Penn State is 7-5 straight up and 5-7 to the number. Florida is 7-5 straight up and 6-6 against the spread.

The Nittany Lions get 4.2 yards per rush to foes that are permitting an average of 4.0 and 7.2 passing yards per attempt to teams that normally allow 6.9, and 5.6 yards per play to 5.4.

The allow 4.5 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.3, 7.0 yards per pass to 7.7, and 5.6 yards per play to 5.8.

Gators get 4.3 yards per rush to defenses that permit 4.1, but a rotten 6.5 yards per pass to squads usually permitting 7.1 and just 5.3 yards per play to 5.5.

Florida has been about defense this year allowing 3.5 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.2, just 6.3 yards per pass to 7.4, and 4.7 yards per play to 5.6.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): The Nittany Lions are 1-5 as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Gators are 6-1 neutral sites as favorites, 22-10 overall as chalks, and 20-7 outside the conference. However, they are 0-5 to teams with a winning record.

Over/under trends: Penn State has gone under seven straight outside conference. Florida has gone over 7-2 following a SU loss of more than 20 points.

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Northwestern vs. Texas Tech kick off the 2011 football betting season in the Dallas Football Classic played at the Cotton Bowl. Texas Tech is laying nine points with a total of 60.5. In addition to the 2011 bowl betting podcast, OffshoreInsiders.com has the official betting preview.

Northwestern is 7-5 straight up, but just 3-9 against the spread, going over 7-of-11 this season. Texas Tech is 7-5 outright, but 5-6 where it really counts.

The Wildcats are much more successful passing than running. They get just 3.5 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.1, 8.2 passing yards per attempt to defenses that allow an average of 7.5 and 5.5 yards per play to 5.6.

Northwestern allows 5.1 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.2, but they are better at stopping the pass allowing 6.7 yards per pass to teams that usually get 7.0. Overall they permit 5.9 yards per play to 5.5.

Texas Tech gets 4.1 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.3, but just 6.7 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.6 yards per play to 5.6.

Defensively, they are permitting 4.1 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4,1, 7.5 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.9 yards per play to 5.6.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Northwestern has dropped 7-of-8 overall. But they are 21-6 as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 17-5 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. On the other hand, they are 1-8 following a SU loss of more than 20 points and 0-6 after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Texas Tech is 1-6 off spread win.

Over/under trends: Wildcats have gone over 6-1 as an underdog, but under 10-2 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

Texas Tech has gone under 6-0 off spread win.

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