What a debut by Vic Duke on OffshoreInsiders.com. When LSU defeated Alabama 9-6 that topped off a 3-1 day. With insight like this, it’s no surprise.
Best Bet LSU (+5) for 3.5 Units ***’
LSU/Alabama 8:00: Good value with a dangerously aggressive Tigers’ team primed for road play. The Tigers are a highly respectable 5-2 ATS on the road and have had success in Alabama—covering 4 of the last 5 there. Sure, the ‘Tide has numbers that are remarkable and statistically the best defense in the NCAA; however, LSU matches well defensively and capable of limiting Alabama’s explosive run game. Where I feel the Tigers have the edge is the depth at QB with the duo of Lee and Jefferson who are extremely difficult to prepare for. On the other hand, Alabama’s QB McCarron will face his toughest test tonight and may struggle in his biggest game with the Alabama program.
And consider this: the ‘Tide is a mere 2-5 ATS off a bye week while the road team in this series has covered 12 of the last 15. Moreover, don’t discount Les Miles in prime time where he’s led his troops to an amazing 44-4 SU record. Throw in the dynamic Tigers’ special teams play and that they’re 6-1 ATS following Auburn and we have a dangerous dog to do damage.
Iowa (+4’) for 2.5 Units **’
Michigan/Iowa Noon: Iowa has been very competitive in this series and a strong force at home in Kinnick Stadium. Value added after sluggish performance last week at Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are a sparkling 31-12-1 ATS off a SU loss and covered 8 of their last 10 dog roles. Moreover, QB Vandenberg has done a bang up job limiting mistakes and managing the offense. He has a solid RB to go to in Marcus Coker who has pounded opponents the past few games on the ground with 100+ efforts. Keep in mind that the Michigan defense is not the deepest and this time of year can feel the wear and tear, especially on the road.
Michigan is a mere 7-18 ATS as a road favorite in this price range. Sure, QB Denard Robinson is the most dangerous player in the stadium on foot; however he is mistake prone with as many interceptions as TD passes (11/11) while completing a mere 54.8% of his passes. Iowa’s HC Ferentz does a great job in preparing his defense and should scheme effectively—limiting the run and forcing Robinson to do what he’s uncomfortable doing: going to the air on 3rd and long. We’ll look for Iowa to capitalize on turnovers and deliver the cover here.
New Mexico State (+34’) for 2 Units **
New Mexico State/Georgia 12:30: It appears we may be messing with fire here with a play against a sizzling Georgia team playing great ball. Nevertheless, we’ll fade the Bulldogs here based on the situation and the under-achievement Richt has exhibited coming off a big conference win while entering a non-conference foe below .500 with a winning conference opponent on deck. He has hit at a money burning 28% in that role in 11 seasons with the Bulldogs. And when the Bulldogs are at home vs an opponent off a SU loss of 14 or more, Georgia has hit at a disappointing 0-8 ATS .
We’ll look for those trends to hold their weight today as an offensively prolific NMS team is riding a 6-1 ATS run. The Aggies have a veteran team that hasn’t quit on the year and playing hard for HC Walker. NMS offers dangerous back door cover opportunities against the Bulldogs who can easily be looking ahead to Auburn—on deck.
Ball State (+2’) for 2 Units **
Ball State/E.Mich 12:00: I see an overrated E. Michigan team that has an offense stuck in neutral with mediocre QB play and limited big play capability. They’re MVP has been their AD who scheduled them with a light early season non-conference schedule (Howard and Alabama State), and padded their record with struggling MAC bottom feeders—C.Michigan W.Michigan and Akron. Furthermore, the Eagles are a mere 8-21 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS as home chalk.
On the other hand, the Cardinals are a solid road dog at 22-8 ATS and 16-6 ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning home record. Ball State’s HC Lempo is doing a respectable job with his troops whom have covered three straight, including an impressive outright at MAC leader Ohio University. Cardinals’ QB Wenning does a solid job running the offense and limiting mistakes. Ball State is looking to avenge last year’s loss and should deliver the goods; after all EM is a pitiful 1-8 ATS at home against an opponent with revenge.