This is what we promised: greatest ever betting football season by any gambler ever.
Promises delivered: early stages we are 19-7 with football, 6-0 NFL going back to preseason, 3-0 all regular season Wise Guys in all sports. Here is what virtually every pro gambler got tonight!
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays.
Wise Guy
DENVER -8 Baltimore
Linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed are gone from the defending champions. Six new starters, still talented but best time to play them is early.
On offense top-notch receiver Anquan Boldin was traded to San Francisco, and Dennis Pitta, who became a key weapon at tight end.
Manning threw for 4,659 yards and 37 touchdowns in 2012, but this year he’ll have wide receiver Wes Welker, which should be a boost to an already potent offense. Welker is perfect for Manning and his hot reads.
Denver strong running game with Montee Ball, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Hillman, Jacob Hester and C.J. Anderson. Manning has a pretty good offensive line protecting him, especially at the two tackle spots with Ryan Clady and Orlando Franklin
Last season, Manning was sacked just 21 times. Only little brother Eli was sacked fewer times among regular NFL starting quarterbacks.
You know how boiler room touts claim to have scouts all over the country, blah, blah? Well in the most practical sense we do because there are so many quality websites covering the NFL from different angles.
Some proven opinions believe Montee Ball will be a breakout player. Among our Golden Rules is to listen to what the oddsmakers are saying and use their knowledge against them.
Making the defending Super Bowl champs a substantial underdog on opening night is a powerful statement. You will see tonight why.
Major
Baltimore-Denver OVER 48
Denvers top pass rusher, Von Miller is suspended for the first six games. With him on the field, Denver allowed 4.5 yards per play but 5.1 when he was off. In addition, Elvis Dumervil was released because of a fax technicality. When the two were on the field, Denver sacked the QB on eight percent of dropbacks. With the two off, they got a sack 3.4 percent of the time.
The aforesaid trusted sources in the side analysis look for Denver to bring the kitchen sink to compensate for their big drop off in the pass rush. That means a lot of feast or famine, either quick scores or three and out.
Yes Dumerville is on the other sidelines, so will still be a factor, but his absence for Denver means the strength of the defense last year, the pass rush is gone until Miller comes back.
While Dumervil is a big reason why Baltimore will be solid on defense long-term, they need some time to gel. They are not exactly playing the best team to break in a new unit.
Neither team is likely to have long and sustained drives.