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Major
BALTIMORE -2.5 Pittsburgh
Steelers defense allowed 6.1 yards per carry and did much of their damage after losing starting running back Ben Tate to a knee injury. They are a young defense and will improve, but the last thing that defense needs is a short week to make adjustments.
Bernard Pierce off horrible game for Ravens, but he should benefit from cut blocking schemes and we look for him to bounce back. We have talked so many times that there are errors that are difficult to correct and there are others that are very correctable. The Ravens combined for seven dropped passes. Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith all had the ball bounce off their hands in key situations. These are good receivers, so we can write their sloppy effort off to an aberration. Dennis Pitta had 10 catches and his return to the line-up this season is huge.
Ravens CB Ladarius Webb is questionable but he did practice, so they should get a key component back. Steelers waned down stretch against Cleveland and that does not bode well versus a Ravens team in back-to-back home games.
Oh and those who have been with us for decades, and thank you as it has been many, know that teams tend to rally around adversity. You may have read but Baltimore had their share this week. History says this is a rallying cry, not a distraction.
Sunday
NFL
Wise Guy
Seattle-San Diego OVER 44.5
Seattle is more aggressive under a more wide-open game plan under Darrell Beavell. Keep in mind, Beavell is considered high on the lists of coaches in waiting and padding offensive numbers is a great way to rise to the top of every wish list at the end of the year.
Road favorites 3.5 or more off win of 14 or more playing team off MNF has gone over at 10-2 rate since 1978. True 10-2 is not statistically overwhelming but 83.3 percent all-time is. This is not a hand-picked recent short-term streak.
Seattle minus starting nickel back Jeremy Lane and cornerback Tharold Simon. They had to take Marcus Burley and Josh Thomas off scrap heap. True it did not look so much opening night but so many people who watch game films, meaning ex-players and coaches talking heads, guys with famous last names at NFL Films, etc believe the DBs of Seattle will be the most negatively affected by enforcement of the new rules
Philip Rivers is a predictably unpredictable guy, meaning he has made a career of rebounding from sub-par efforts, so his middling effort last week bodes well for this week. He had just 21 completions in 36 attempts for 238 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and he had just 80 yards in 20 attempts in the first half.
He does that often, but he is still starting because he follows it up with splendid games.
BUFFALO -1 Miami
Miami upset New England wearing dark jersey in extreme heat in game we tweeted sources from field said Tom Brady has a noticeable limp. So it was a very good spot for them. Much more used to the blistering heat than New England, that paid off. Now they get temperatures in the 60s and they do the traveling.
Miami has five new starters on OL so tough to expect great back-to-back efforts.
Miami rookie linebacker Chris McCain blocked punt and sack in opening game but missed practices this week and may not play. Miami played the entire second half last weekend without its three starting linebackers. Darnell Ellerbe out for year. The other two are questionable. The Bills are 3-1 against the Dolphins since Philbin took over in 2012.
One reason the bills have been successful against Miami is due to Buffalo rushing attack led by tailbacks CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. The bills certainly will test the Miami run defense and linebackers again on Sunday.
CHICAGO +7 San Francisco
Sunday Night NFC Interdivisional Game of the Year
Last week Jay Cutler does what Jay Cutler does. He handed away a game at home to an inferior foe. Now is the perfect situation. He is getting points to a superior foe off a horrible effort and there is where he shines time and time again.
Newbies, we call it predictably unpredictable and that is how Cutler rolls. Absolutely it is a concern that Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are questionable. That is what gives us such a nice number.
Keep in mind that San Francisco is ravaged by injuries in the secondary themselves. Starting corners Tramaine Brock and Chris Culliver are injured, as well as nickelback Jimmie Ward.
CAROLINA -2.5 Detroit
Matt Stafford is another high on the list of being predictably unpredictable. Off an impressive rout of the Giants, he will flop here.
Cam Newton probable to make his return. All signs and sources say he is refocused and matured.
Add to that he may have a chip on his shoulder that they won without him. Detroit right tackle Corey Hilliard out for year. They also placed cornerback bill bentley on injured reserve.
Right tackle Laadrian Waddle left the game with a calf injury and did not return, and his replacement. Panthers rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is one of the newest stud with six receptions. Carolina let Tampa back into game last week and it was not as close as the score indicated.
Major
WASHINGTON -6 Jacksonville
This is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.
SEATTLE -5 San Diego
It is an outsourced pick, previous called a competitor consensus, but renamed to more accurately reflect the parameters. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side or if we are neutral on a pick, but at least two elite sources or contacts have a bet sans any conflicting bets from said sources, it is a bet for us as an outsourced pick.
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