Monthly Archives: October 2019

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Week 6 NFL Injuries, Sharp Moves, Public Consensus, Weather

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In no shock, the public loves road favorites this week, with the only two overwhelming public consensus bets on Atlanta and Arizona. Tennessee is slight road underdog, but opened as a favorite on the Betonline lookahead line. Plus with home field being worth three-points, they are the implied better team playing on the road.

As one can see below, with top advisor to pro gamblers Joe Duffy in another groove, high rollers are putting a beating on the books.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Atlanta, Arizona

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Atlanta, Tennessee; Atlanta OVER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Jacksonville

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds. This includes true opening lines over the summer when books had “games of the year” lines posted: Dallas opened -1.5 to Jets now -7; Kansas City -8.5 now -4, Carolina P now -2.5.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from I am 40-24 NFL since preseason. I am 18-7 in college football! Updated: Ten NFL led by Wise Guy side. I swept Wise Guys already with Friday Night GOY on Miami, Big 10 Total of the Year Wisconsin UNDER. Also, Army UNDER was a Wise Guy. Added the ALCS total, plus a side or runline.

Simply put, you never have runs like this on your own. My clients expect it and get it delivered. I am smoking hot. Get the picks now

Two sites have fairly high winds today. Here is the week 6 NFL weather report:

Game Wind Speed
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 mph
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns 16 mph

Critical NFL injuries:

  • Saints star RB Alvin Kamara will play
  • Rams RB Todd Gurley is out
  • Cardinals RB David Johnson probable
  • Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill is probable
  • Ravens WR Marquise Brown is doubtful
  • Dallas is ravaged with injuries with starting ORT La’el Collins out and OLT Tryon Smith doubtful. WR Randall “Tex” Cobb is game-time decision
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LCS, Updated World Series Odds; Astros Faves

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As has been the case most of the season, the odds remain heavily slanted toward the Houston Astros to collect their second World Series championship. 

The latest from SportsBetting.ag have the Astros better than a 2-1 favorite in the World Series odds. They are the odds-on favorite to defeat New York in the ALCS.

The Cardinals and Nationals have identical title odds, while Washington is a small favorite over St. Louis in the NLCS. 

Current postseason odds from SportsBetting

World Series

 

Probability

Houston Astros

+140

41.67%

New York Yankees

+250

28.57%

Washington Nationals

+450

18.18%

St. Louis Cardinals

+450

18.18%

 

AL Pennant

 

Probability

Houston Astros

-160

61.54%

New York Yankees

+140

41.67%

 

 

 

NL Pennant

 

 

Washington Nationals

-130

56.52%

St. Louis Cardinals

+110

47.62%

OffshoreInsiders.com is the place to go for both winning sports picks and vetted sportsbooks.

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Week 7 College Football Sharp Betting Report

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North Texas is one of the most significant consensus bets of the year. The public loves betting favorites. The general exception is they do happily bet highly ranked underdogs. But six-point underdog North Texas has gotten a stunning 87 percent of wagers. Here is the sharp rundown.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: North Texas, Army, UAB, Maryland, Wake Forest

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Army, UAB, Vanderbilt

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: South Florida, Louisville, Charlotte

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. 39-24 NFL since preseason. Heating up big time in college football with 7-2 Saturday. Football’s first drop is up Thursday through Saturday, I have 15 college football winners. This includes Friday Night Game of the Year and Big 10 Total of the Year. NFL Thursday Night total plus first three Sunday NFL!  Get the picks now 

Best team this year in terms of “Sweat Barometer” or margin of cover.

Team

ATS Record

ATS Margin

Ohio State

5-1-0

18.0

Wisconsin

4-1-0

16.6

LA Lafayette

5-0-0

14.6

Penn State

3-2-0

14.5

Navy

3-1-0

12.8

Hawaii

3-2-0

11.6

Best teams to bet against thus far

Team

ATS Record

ATS Margin

Nevada

2-3-0

-17.1

Akron

0-5-0

-13.5

VA Tech

1-4-0

-12.2

U Mass

1-5-0

-12.2

Rutgers

1-4-0

-12.0

Bowling Green

1-4-0

-12.0

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College Football Free Picks From Sports Betting Podcast

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Urgent update: Joe Duffy is killing it in every sport. I am 10-4 in college football in addition to 40-24 in NFL since preseason. I had my Friday Night GOY on Miami +1. Word spread and they closed -3. No problem. I had the under. The total dropped three points. No problem.

Saturday it’s the Big 10 Total of the Year among two Wise Guys and 11 college football winners. Four sides included and a lot of national TV winners.  The intel just keeps paying off time and time again.

So far Sunday, six NFL led by Wise Guy side. Get the picks now 

Memphis (-6, 50) at Temple

  • Memphis opened -3 now -6
  • Memphis last 4 games, a combined 154 points
  • Total of 50 or less despite one team combining for at least 144 points last four games goes under 192-136-6
  • Memphis defensive back Chris Claybrooks is expected to make his season debut
    • Speed and coverage ability, great return game
    • Very key player especially after giving up 319 passing yards to ULM
  • Memphis RB Patrick Taylor questionable after missing four games
  • Best defense Memphis has seen all season, ranked No. 1 in conference in scoring defense
  • Hold teams to .9 yards per rush, 1.0 yards per pass, and .9 yards per play below normal average
  • Memphis holds teams to .8 yards per rush, 1.1 yards per pass and .9 yards per play below
  • Temple beat only other ranked opponent Maryland

The pick: UNDER 50.5 at MyBookie

USC at Notre Dame (-11, 59)

  • Going with home teams off a dominant win is 581-412-28 (Notre Dame)
    • Subsystem takes it to 59.2 percent at 408-281
  • With ND’s only loss a close one on road to UGA, still in national title picture
  • USC off bye and got starting QB Kedon Slovis back
    • True freshman went 60-of-77 for 732 yards, five touchdowns and four touchdowns in four games
    • Tough road game
    • 3 starting QBs in five games because of injuries
    • Slovis still ranks second in the FBS in completion percentage (.779), trailing only LSU’s Joe Burrow
  • USC gets back S Talanoa Hufanga who was leading tackler when he got hurt
  • Also cornerback Olaijah Griffin probable to return

The pick: USC +11 at Bovada college football odds

 

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Game 5 Picks: Braves-Cardinals, Nats-Dodgers, Astros-Rays

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Three MLB series will see a pivotal Game 5. Get the official betting preview on all three. The first goes in early evening today, the Cardinals vs. Braves.

The Cardinals were about ready to give up on their 2019 pennant dreams in Game 4. Somehow, someway, they managed to pull a huge victory from the ashes. They beat the Braves 5-4 in the 10th inning. Now, they’ll look to take down Atlanta in Game 5.
Ace Jack Flaherty takes the mound. Flaherty pitched okay in Game 1, throwing for 7 innings and giving up 3 runs on 8 hits. Flaherty struck out 8. It was enough for the victory. If Flaherty repeats his performance, the Cardinals can take this on Wednesda

Full preview below

Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy: We start out another winning football week with Wednesday, yes Wednesday side in college football. Plus, MLB Wise Guy at 5:02, Major at 8:37. Get the picks now  

Washington Nationals vs. LA Dodgers gambling tips are below.

The Washington Nationals and L.A. Dodgers send two of their top starters to the mound on Wednesday, Oct. 9. Game 5 of the 2019 National League Divisional Series will be the final time one of these teams plays this year. Will the Nats pull off the major upset over a World Series favorite? Or, will the Dodgers head to their third straight NLCS? See below for the MLB odds, a preview and a free pick for Nationals vs Dodgers Game 5!

MLB betting news below

Now to tomorrow where Tampa has a Ray of hope.

The Rays got to Justin Verlander but that’s because Verlander threw on only 3 days of rest. His control was way off. Many of his pitches sailed on him. Cole heads to the mound on Thursday after 5 days of rest.
He’ll be ready to dominate the Rays again. Almost as important are two facts about the Rays in this matchup. They beat the Astros in Game 2 by chasing Glasnow off the mound after 4.1 innings. Glasnow could have the same trouble in Game 5 he had in Game 2

The free pick is below.
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College Football Handicapper Podcast Free Picks Inc Southern Cal-Notre Dame

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Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com is the all-time winning handicapper in terms of units won. He has free winning picks on Memphis vs. Temple and USC vs. Notre Dame. Joe Duffy has a huge week ahead. 39-24 NFL since preseason. Heating up big time in college football with 7-2 Saturday. Football’s first drop is up Thursday through Saturday, I have 15 college football winners. This includes Friday Night Game of the Year and Big 10 Total of the Year. NFL Thursday Night total plus first three Sunday NFL! It’s all at OffshoreInsiders.com 

Sports & Recreation

College Football Handicapper Podcast Free Picks Inc Southern Cal-Notre Dame

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Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com is the all-time winning handicapper in terms of units won. He has free winning picks on Memphis vs. Temple and USC vs. Notre Dame. Joe Duffy has a huge week ahead. 39-24 NFL since preseason. Heating up big time in college football with 7-2 Saturday. Football’s first drop is up Thursday through Saturday, I have 15 college football winners. This includes Friday Night Game of the Year and Big 10 Total of the Year. NFL Thursday Night total plus first three Sunday NFL! It’s all at OffshoreInsiders.com 

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Week 7 College Football Parlay Bets, ATS Picks, Totals, Moneyline Winners

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Urgent update: Joe Duffy is killing it in every sport. I am 10-4 in college football in addition to 40-24 in NFL since preseason. I had my Friday Night GOY on Miami +1. Word spread and they closed -3. No problem. I had the under. The total dropped three points. No problem.

Saturday it’s the Big 10 Total of the Year among two Wise Guys and 11 college football winners. Four sides included and a lot of national TV winners.  The intel just keeps paying off time and time again.

So far Sunday, six NFL led by Wise Guy side. Get the picks now 

Sharps have made a fortune already this season, but we are just getting started. Joe Duffy remains in fire, but so are some free picks.

Parlay picks are up for the weekend.

UVA comes off a bye week. It lost 35-20 at No. 10 Notre Dame on Sept. 28. Virginia (4-1) led 17-14 going into the half, but was outscored by 21-3 in the second. Bryce Perkins threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns in the first half for UVA. Wide receivers Hasise Dubois and Joe Reed each had over 100 yards receiving and scored a touchdown for the Cavaliers. Dubois became the 41st Cavalier to reach 1,000th career receiving yards.
Virginia had 338 total yards on offense, passing for 334 of those yards, but had five turnovers. The Irish forced the Cavaliers into a total of 4 rushing yards on the day, the fourth-lowest total by a Notre Dame opponent since 1996. The Irish also had eight sacks.

More below

The most popular way to win bets is picking games against the spread. There are some standout picks.

Michigan State saw their modest two-game winning streak come to an abrupt halt in their humbling 34-10, Week 6 loss against Ohio State. The Spartans are averaging a decent 27.8 points per game (75th) while limiting the opposition to 18.2 points per contest defensively (21st).
Wisconsin moved to 5-0 on the season by routing overmatched Kent State 48-0 this past weekend. The Badgers are putting 43.4 points per game (11th) while limiting the opposition to a mind-boggling 5.8 points per game to lead the nation in fewest points allowed. Wisconsin has also won two of the last three meetings in this rivalry including an emphatic 30-6 blowout road win a year ago. With the way the Badgers are playing on both sides of the ball, I see almost no way that Michigan State gets the upset road win in this Big Ten battle.

Full betting tips linked below

Some love office pools and many bet the winners straight up. You don’t want to miss this preview

Can the Illinois Fighting Illini’ pull off the big upset in their Big Ten battle against a Michigan Wolverines team that hasn’t looked overly powerful this season? Are the Georgia Bulldogs locks to avoid a home upset in College Football Week 7 against visiting South Carolina? Last but not least, could the Texas Longhorns make it two regular season wins in a row when they host the explosive Oklahoma Sooners in the latest edition of their annual Red River Showdown?
If you’re a betting aficionado that loves making simple straight-up, moneyline wagers, then look no further. I’ve got a trio of College Football Week 7 SU picks that looks simply salivating!

Article in full below

Now to over-under action. Joe Duffy is 39-24 NFL since preseason. Heating up big time in college football with 7-2 Saturday. Football’s first drop is up Thursday through Saturday, I have 15 college football winners. This includes Friday Night Game of the Year and Big 10 Total of the Year. NFL Thursday Night total plus first three Sunday NFL! Get the picks now

Texas Tech recorded an impressive, 45-35 upset win over Oklahoma State on Saturday and the Red Raiders are averaging 31.6 points per game (58th) while allowing 26.2 points per contest defensively (63rd). Baylor remained unbeaten by downing K-State 31-12 this past weekend and the Bears are putting up a healthy 38.8 points per game (19th) while limiting the opposition to just 15.4 points per contest defensively (15th).
While Baylor has not allowed more than 21 points in any game this season, Texas Tech gave up a whopping 55 points to Oklahoma two weeks ago and 28 points to Arizona in another loss the week prior, not to mention the 35 points they allowed Oklahoma State to put on the board on Saturday.

More winning tips below
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Washing State vs. Arizona State Gambling Preview with @JeffNadu

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Urgent update: Joe Duffy is killing it in every sport. I am 10-4 in college football in addition to 40-24 in NFL since preseason. I had my Friday Night GOY on Miami +1. Word spread and they closed -3. No problem. I had the under. The total dropped three points. No problem.

Saturday it’s the Big 10 Total of the Year among two Wise Guys and 11 college football winners. Four sides included and a lot of national TV winners.  The intel just keeps paying off time and time again.

So far Sunday, six NFL led by Wise Guy side. Get the picks now 

The Big Man on Campus, Jeff Nadu and guest Joe Duffy preview the Washington State vs. Arizona State contest from a gambling standpoint. ASU is laying -1 with a total of 58.5 at Bovada. Shop around on the total because both 58 and 59 can be had. The Sun Devils opened -2 and 57.5. Though 57 percent of bets are on Arizona State, 53 percent of the cash is on WSU.

The experts break it down!