Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com built up a great reputation in the 1980s on the national score phones as the greatest underdog and small favorites baseball handicapper in history. He’s added a new weapon to his baseball betting picks arsenal. Believe it or not, it’s betting big favorites. He hates it, but it is mostly on the runline. A fact based sports gambling podcast as to why.
Monthly Archives: April 2020
Facts Over Agenda In MLB Betting: Big Chalks Are Good Bets
I recently conducted a video explaining just a handful of the motives why computer software is so significant in thrashing the bookmakers. High atop the list of reasons is that it helps eliminate biases.
To this day, I get the shakes just thinking about laying heavy lumber in MLB. Bearing in mind home field advantage, I defined big favorites as more than -255 at home or -211 on the road. But I did eliminate the outlier of bigger than -308. Disclaimer, one could argue there was some back-fitting to maximize units won. Still, it does not nullify the truth that goes against my DNA: large favorites are +88.85 percent on the moneyline and much better +105.91 on runline for 7.9 ROI.
I suppose it’s always easy to back fit theories. The reality that the runline is even more advantageous gets back to another fundamental of betting: the best way to maximize profits is to minimize losses. I’ve underscored when line-shopping, it’s not just about getting the hook, but also and more so about getting the best juice. Excluding key numbers, a half-point is generally worth about .04 to .06 juice at most. For example, I’d rather get +4 -102 than +4.5 and -110.
You must acknowledge that you will lose 40something percent of the time. Reduced juice is imperative to acquiring the biggest payouts. When wagering the runline on large favorites, you save an enormous amount of money with each loss or winning a lot more with each win (depending on if your bet amount is based on “to win” or “to risk.”)
The drawback is you do get banged if the garganuan favorite wins by exactly one-run. But the scientific results demonstrate the tradeoff says to lay -1.5 runs.
I don’t exercise contrarian information when it comes to baseball moneylines or even runlines because they also incorporate juice. Hence, I’m not the expert that I am in other sports in studying betting tendencies. However, it does stand to reason that even the chalk-lovers among us get sticker shock with numbers above -200.
In fact, I have noted, certified by data, that in NBA with totals, there are limits to how much is too much. Once totals get in the 240 range, the public backs off overs. Hence the posted price on favorites well above 200 is such a deterrent even to Joey Bagofdonuts that their value manifests.
Regardless of hypothesis, facts are facts, and I have to bite the bullet often, but luckily more with runlines. Still even at -1.5 in the -170 range pays off, despite my apprehension on risking so much vigorish.
It is less of a surprise that big favorites execute even better on Opening Day, be it home or road. Just as one example, road favorites of -125 or more have a whopping 18.2 ROI on the moneyline and 15.9 on runline in the first game of the season.
Perhaps one would theorize home underdogs would do well. That’s about the only “intangible” one could argue, but 35-plus years of experience decrees that intangibles are overplayed. Additionally, there are clearly no letdown or lookahead situations (they are playing the same team in their next game anyway), so it makes perfect sense that there is nothing to counterbalance the straightforward superior team winning.
I’ve built my reputation as “undisputed king of the underdog and small favorites,” but isolated some notable exceptions. I never thought I’d say this, but the newest weaponry in my betting arsenal is laying the lumber—though by and large on the runline.
The author Joe Duffy is one of the most quoted sports bettors of all-time. CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com the place for both approved sportsbooks and winning sports handicapping advice. Check out this video on bad beats
UFC 250 Odds Posted
With the full fight card for UFC 250 confirmed, oddsmakers wasted little time setting lines for each of the bouts.
According to SportsBetting Tony Ferguson is a -175 favorite for the interim lightweight title fight against Justin Gaethje.
In the other two title bouts, Henry Cejudo is a -225 favorite over Dominick Cruz and Amanda Nunes is a -430 favorite versus Felicia Spencer.
The complete list of UFC 250 odds is below and you can access real-time odds (subject to change) here:
Of course, the bookies are skeptic that this event will occur in less than a month as planned, not even giving it a 50-50 shot.
Will UFC 250 take place on May 9, 2020?
Yes +150
No -200
(Odds equate to a 40% implied probability that it will happen on schedule)
UFC 250 Odds
Tony Ferguson -175
Justin Gaethje +150
Henry Cejudo -225
Dominick Cruz +190
Amanda Nunes -430
Felicia Spencer +330
Francis Ngannou -275
Jairzinho Rozenstruik +235
Jeremy Stephens +205
Calvin Kattar -240
Donald Cerrone +130
Anthony Pettis -150
Greg Hardy -180
Yorgan de Castro +155
Alexey Oleynik +260
Fabricio Werdum -310
Carla Esparza -135
Michelle Waterson +115
Ronaldo Souza -145
Uriah Hall +125
Vicente Luque -250
Niko Price +210
Charles Rosa +165
Bryce Mitchell -190
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Never Bet With Your Broken Heart
In my handicapping infancy in the late 80s, the Dutchman (recall that bloke scorephone junkies?) was doling out copies of some advice column along the lines of Golden Rules of Handicapping. I can’t even recollect most of the provisions, but do recall they ranged from the obvious like, “Bet with your head, not your heart,” to the total bullshit, “Only wager on an underdog to cover if you think they will win outright.”
All the other theorems were fairly unmemorable. I can’t “credit” the author, because I’m not sure who it was. But yeah, stuff did go viral back then, but before high tech took over the world, it was a 15th generation photocopied note.
Lost in the prudent, yet blatantly evident “not betting with your heart” is a more significant reality: don’t gamble with your broken heart. I’m shocked at how often I hear something along the lines of, “I refuse to bet on any game involving the Detroit Lions. Each time I bet on them whether for or against, I get it wrong.
Though I haven’t done a scientific inquisition, the ensuing soliloquy generally reveals a very small sample size. Further conversations reveals a common pattern is that they bet on them to repeat the performance of the last time they wagered for or against them.
“They lost outright as a 10-point favorite. Next time, I bet against them as an underdog and they won by 20 points,” is a familiar sounding shrieking of annoyance. The fact that sharps bet on capricious teams to be unpredictable notwithstanding, it’s a knee-jerk reflex to eliminate possibilities based on short-term heartache.
It’s as preposterous as swearing off unders because a few tormenting setbacks. Most of us have been there, but only squares abandon the ship.
Perhaps the is a legitimate reason someone has a bad read on a team. If so, assess and determine why. Make alterations accordingly. But if you are basing your next bet on how a certain team performed the last time you place a bet on them—the only bad read you have is on how handicapping works.
The author Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. He’s been dominating handicapping publicly since the 1980s scorephone days. With all the time off during coronavirus, he both added to his systems arsenal and started the dad jokes YouTube channel Hey Abby D with his daughter. The first video is below.
Spread For Every NFC East Game 2020
Below you will find spreads for every game NFC North teams will play in 2020.
The odds are broken down by team, and they come courtesy of SportsBetting
Additionally, the bookie recently posted odds for passing, receiving and rushing statistical leaders. Unsurprisingly, two Saints sit atop the board in two categories.
There are more than 35 names on each leader list, but I’ve only listed the top 10 below. Here are the links to find current odds:
North division spreads:
Stats leaders:
Chicago Bears
Bears at Falcons -1
Bears at Panthers +2.5
Bears at Jaguars +6.5
Bears at Rams -3.5
Bears at Titans -3
Bears at Lions PK
Bears at Packers -4.5
Bears at Vikings -4
Lions at Bears -5
Packers at Bears PK
Vikings at Bears PK
Saints at Bears +2.5
Buccaneers at Bears -1
Texans at Bears -3.5
Colts at Bears -1.5
Giants at Bears -6
Detroit Lions
Lions at Cardinals -3
Lions at Falcons -4.5
Lions at Panthers -1
Lions at Jaguars +1
Lions at Titans -6
Lions at Bears -5
Lions at Packers -7
Lions at Vikings -7
Packers at Lions +2
Vikings at Lions +2
Bears at Lions PK
Saints at Lions +5.5
Buccaneers at Lions +2.5
Texans at Lions -1
Colts at Lions +1.5
Redskins at Lions -5.5
Green Bay Packers
Packers at Texans PK
Packers at Colts -1.5
Packers at Saints -5.5
Packers at 49ers -5.5
Packers at Buccaneers -2.5
Packers at Bears PK
Packers at Lions +2
Packers at Vikings -3
Vikings at Packers -3
Lions at Packers -7
Bears at Packers -4.5
Falcons at Packers -6
Panthers at Packers -9.5
Jaguars at Packers -11
Titans at Packers -4
Eagles at Packers -2.5
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings at Texans PK
Vikings at Colts -2
Vikings at Saints -6
Vikings at Seahawks -3
Vikings at Buccaneers -3
Vikings at Bears PK
Vikings at Lions +2
Vikings at Packers -3
Packers at Vikings -3
Lions at Vikings -7
Bears at Vikings -4
Falcons at Vikings -5.5
Panthers at Vikings -9
Jaguars at Vikings -11
Titans at Vikings -3.5
Cowboys at Vikings -2.5
Most Passing Yards
Drew Brees 5/1
Patrick Mahomes 6/1
Aaron Rodgers 8/1
Matt Ryan 8/1
Tom Brady 8/1
Dak Prescott 10/1
Lamar Jackson 10/1
Jared Goff 12/1
Kyler Murray 12/1
Russell Wilson 16/1
Most Receiving Yards
Michael Thomas 6/1
Julio Jones 8/1
DeAndre Hopkins 9/1
Chris Godwin 10/1
Mike Evans 10/1
Odell Beckham Jr. 12/1
Tyreek Hill 12/1
Davante Adams 14/1
Adam Thielen 16/1
Amari Cooper 16/1
DeVante Parker 16/1
DK Metcalf 16/1
Most Rushing Yards
Derrick Hendry 6/1
Christian McCaffrey 7/1
Nick Chubb 8/1
Dalvin Cook 10/1
Ezekiel Elliott 10/1
Saquon Barkley 14/1
Chris Carson 16/1
Joe Mixon 16/1
Josh Jacobs 16/1
Leonard Fournette 16/1
Worst Ever Dad Jokes: Debut of Hey Abby D
I wouldn’t recommend your kids watch my handicapping videos until they are 18. Mind you, I always say I’m a handicapping degenerate, not a gambling degenerate and my obsession with picking games ATS begin as a pre-teen.
Nevertheless, with a lot more time on our hands that we wanted, my daughter and I started a nice clean, family friendly dad jokes channel. Follow us on Twitter. The magic of dad jokes are that bad=good. So I hope you hate/love our first episode.
AFC North Preview 2020
Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com previews AFC North 2020 with Scott Reichel and Scott Steehn.
NFL AFC North Division
Thu 9/10 8:25PM odds from 5 Dimes
Baltimore Ravens, -175
Lamar Jackson off career year
Unless they have track record of Russell Wilson, Aaron Rogers, or Tom Brady, will definitely bet on regression
Not the passer of Mahomes
Several pending free agents on defense
Matthew Judon
Michael Pierce
Jimmy Smith
Brandon Carr
Patrick Onwuasor
Need to improve pass rush
OL weak
Need another WR to compliment Marquise “Hollywood” Brown
Draft is deep at WR
Deep at RB
Pittsburgh Steelers, +310
Tomlin great job without Triplets
Added TE Eric Ebron
Roethlisberger works well with TE
Pittsburgh will lose DT Javon Hargrave, who had four sacks in 2019
Ageing OL protecting ageing QB
Likely to grab WR to maximize Benji’s final year or two
JuJu Smith-Shuster
Several close losses last year
Cleveland Browns, +550
Browns were everyone’s chic breakout team with Baker Mayfield
Many sportsbooks admitted if Browns won SB they’d take a bath
With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, among best 1-2 punches in NFL
TE Austin Hooper a massive addition
With David Njoku great 1-2 TE punch
Hope Myles Garrett plays whole season on defense
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
New HC Kevin Stefanski
Cincinnati Bengals, +3400
A.J. Green is back
Likely draft Joe Burrow, definitely upgrade from Andy Dalton
Joe Mixon at RB
Physical
Defense, despite spending so much time on field, got stronger
Zac Taylor with year under his belt
2019 first-rounder OLT Johan Williams returns to health
Still OL is a weakness they will likely address in draft
NFL live lines, latest odds once NFL resumes from MYBookie
$1 Million Bovada Poker Tournament Starts This Month
A massive announcement Bovada poker about a four-day tournament, 20 events and $1 million guaranteed to be given away. The tournament begins Friday, April 17th. From their website:
The Million Dollar Weekend is coming, and it’s loaded with one of the biggest prize pools we’ve ever had for a weekend series.
Qualifiers start Thursday, April 2nd and the tournament series runs from Friday, April 17th to Monday, April 20th.
The Main Event features a guaranteed $150,000 prize pool ($250 + $20). Players who want some early action will like the Early Bird Main Event ($5,000 GTD, $75 + $7), and there’s a Mini Main Event ($75,000 GTD, $100 + $9) too.
In all, we’ve got 20 events for every kind of player packed into 4 days.
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Need even more than the Million Dollar Weekend? There’s also a huge Jackpot Sit & Gohappening from April 2nd to 21st, with a prize pool that includes a $1,000,000 jackpot. Buy-in is $100, so grab a seat at the table and play your hot hand anytime.
Check out the paytable below to see how you can walk away with your share of $1,000,000.
| Prize Pool Multiplier | Frequency/ 1,000,000 | 1st-Place Prize | 2nd & 3rd Prizes | Total Jackpot |
| 2 | 615,978 | $200.00 | – | $200.00 |
| 4 | 384,011 | $400.00 | – | $400.00 |
| 1,200 | 10 | $100,000.00 | $10,000.00 | $120,000.00 |
| 10,000 | 1 | $833,333.34 | $83,333.00 | $1,000,000.00 |
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