Iconic NFL handicapping expert and CEO of http://offshoreinsiders.com Joe Duffy tells us that the yard per point stat is very important. But there is a twist that will shock many. He reveals what is it and with proof.
Monthly Archives: May 2020
How to Exploit Yards Per Point Stat In Mastering Football Betting
Every season all sports are an enriching experience in sports betting. I constantly reflect and critique myself, evaluate what modifications have been implemented by the oddsmakers and how the alterations in the sports landscape affect handicapping.
High on the register of strategy refinements many football seasons ago was the understanding that I stumbled upon a football handicapping Holy Grail about a quarter of a century ago yet let it slide through my fingertips.
In the pre-Internet days, one of my top sources for data was the Sports and Gaming Newswire, one of Jim Feist’s enterprises. I believe that was the first time I encountered the yards per point statistic.
On offense it is calculated by yards gained divided by points scored. On defense, its yards allowed divided by points given up. The supposition is it measures efficiency on both sides of the ball.
A low number on offense is good, meaning a team does not waste yardage or leave points on the field so to speak.
A high number on defense is good, meaning a lot of successful defensive stands. However, conventional thinking (handicapping’s ultimate oxymoron) would say bet on the efficient teams and against the inefficient.
The stat proved not only worthless, but if anything one would be better off fading the stat. That is, one should bet on the least efficient team. Here is that magic phrase yet again: regression to the mean.
In fact, based on net yards per play (offensive yards per play-offense yards per play allowed) favorites with a net edge of at least two yards per play are a go-against of 248-208-7. We have a subsystem in our database that is even better.
That being said, such teams that are underdogs despite an efficiency edge 43-32-1. Perhaps this 57.3 angle, albeit with a low sample size, suggests a team is what the stats say they are. That is, when the statistically better team is getting points, take the dog.
I’ve typed countless articles and recorded sports betting podcasts on how we measure the accuracy and validity of a team’s performance. In summation, I exploit net yardage record (a team that gets more yards wins) where others use straight up won-loss record. We use net yards per game comparisons where the squares employ points per game.
Others rank teams by total yards per game in passing, rushing and overall both offensively and defensively. In lieu of that, we use the more reliable yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play relative to the cumulative average of their opponents to date. Foxsheets is quite good for that.
For elaboration, visit the archived sports betting strategy articles at OffshoreInsiders.com, but our supposition is that these stats demonstrate which teams outplay or underplay their stats and hence, which teams have the biggest upside and which have the biggest downside. Insert the terms overvalued and undervalued.
Remember, a team’s Vegas/offshore value is most affected by their performance. But the teams that have the best, yes we said best yards per point stats are teams that are going to be overvalued and teams with the worst undervalued.
Why? The most efficient teams can only improve by maintaining the high bar they have set for themselves while increasing actual production.
The squads that, for example, waste offensive yardage by not converting them into points (bad yards per point rating) have demonstrated they are capable of more than their bottom-line production has shown.
There is little debate that poor efficiency is more correctable than poor production. Remember, it’s not like one can retroactively bet stats. The more efficient teams will have the best spread records to date for the most part. As gamblers, we want to know beforehand which teams will have a reversal of fortune–literally.
Many years ago, I beta tested (tracked but did not bet) the theory. Voila. Yes, the teams that were wasting yards did have the biggest upside and the least wasteful teams did have the bigger downside. Essentially, it proved to be a great a great way to buy low and sell high and apply it to handicapping.
Best of all, the more the previously referenced stats: net yardage, yards per rush/pass/play and yards per point theories corroborated each other, not surprisingly, the stronger the play. If the data contradicted, of course it meant there was no statistical angle to exploit.
The sharpest bettor thanks to facts-based proven systems and theories is Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com
UFC 249 Odds Updated Morning Line
UFC 249 odds are posted and updated for tonight. The first column is the over-under on how many rounds the fight will go. Column two is the moneyline on the winners. We recommend MyBookie and Bovada for betting these bouts. The horrible coronavirus has given Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com some time to update podcasts and videos with sports betting secrets with tips on sports gambling strategy.
Saturday, 9th May 2020 | TOTAL | ML | |
UFC 249 | |||
6:10 PM | |||
24653 | Sam Alvey | 1½ (-130) | 350 |
24654 | Ryan Spann | 1½ (+110) | -440 |
UFC 249 | |||
6:40 PM | |||
24649 | Charles Rosa | 2½ (-220) | 145 |
24650 | Bryce Mitchell | 2½ (+180) | -165 |
UFC 249 | |||
7:10 PM | |||
24645 | Niko Price | 1½ (EV) | 230 |
24646 | Vicente Luque | 1½ (-120) | -270 |
UFC 249 | |||
8:10 PM | |||
24637 | Michelle Waterson | 2½ (-515) | 125 |
24638 | Carla Esparza | 2½ (+410) | -145 |
UFC 249 | |||
8:40 PM | |||
24633 | Alexey Oleinik | 1½ (-115) | 260 |
24634 | Fabricio Werdum | 1½ (-105) | -320 |
UFC 249 | |||
9:10 PM | |||
24625 | Donald Cerrone | 2½ (+135) | 130 |
24626 | Anthony Pettis | 2½ (-155) | -150 |
UFC 249 | |||
10:05 PM | |||
24629 | Yorgan De Castro | 1½ (-130) | 175 |
24630 | Greg Hardy | 1½ (+110) | -210 |
UFC 249 | |||
10:30 PM | |||
24621 | Jeremy Stephens | 2½ (-155) | 220 |
24622 | Calvin Kattar | 2½ (+135) | -260 |
UFC 249 | |||
10:55 PM | |||
24617 | Jair Rozenstruik | 1½ (+120) | 225 |
24618 | Francis Ngannou | 1½ (-140) | -265 |
UFC 249 | |||
11:20 PM | |||
24609 | Dominick Cruz | 4½ (-210) | 180 |
24610 | Henry Cejudo | 4½ (+175) | -220 |
UFC 249 | |||
11:45 PM | |||
24613 | Justin Gaethje | 2½ (+140) | 170 |
24614 | Tony Ferguson | 2½ (-160) | -200 |
Wednesday, 13th May 2020 | TOTAL | ML | |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24001 | Anthony Smith | – | -155 |
24002 | Glover Teixeira | – | 135 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24005 | Ben Rothwell | – | 130 |
24006 | Ovince Saint Preux | – | -150 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24009 | Alexander Hernandez | – | 115 |
24010 | Drew Dober | – | -135 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24013 | Ray Borg | – | 145 |
24014 | Ricky Simon | – | -165 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24017 | Karl Roberson | – | 140 |
24018 | Marvin Vettori | – | -160 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24021 | Andrei Arlovski | – | 135 |
24022 | Philipe Lins | – | -155 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24025 | Michael Johnson | – | -115 |
24026 | Thiago Moises | – | -105 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24029 | Sijara Eubanks | – | -365 |
24030 | Sarah Moras | – | 305 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24033 | Hunter Azure | – | -165 |
24034 | Brian Kelleher | – | 145 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24037 | Ike Villanueva | – | 115 |
24038 | Chase Sherman | – | -135 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24041 | Gabriel Benitez | – | 125 |
24042 | Omar Morales | – | -155 |
Saturday, 16th May 2020 | TOTAL | ML | |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24051 | Alistair Overeem | – | 140 |
24052 | Walt Harris | – | -160 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24055 | Claudia Gadelha | – | -185 |
24056 | Angela Hill | – | 160 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24059 | Edson Barboza | – | -125 |
24060 | Dan Ige | – | 105 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24063 | Eryk Anders | – | 115 |
24064 | Krzysztof Jotko | – | -135 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24067 | Song Yadong | – | -175 |
24068 | Marlon Vera | – | 155 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24071 | Anthony Hernandez | – | -105 |
24072 | Kevin Holland | – | -115 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24075 | Mike Davis | – | -225 |
24076 | Giga Chikadze | – | 185 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24079 | Cortney Casey | – | -150 |
24080 | Mara Romero Borella | – | 130 |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24083 | Darren Elkins | – | -120 |
24084 | Nate Landwehr | – | EV |
UFC on ESPN+ | |||
2:00 PM | |||
24087 | Rodrigo Nascimento | – | 105 |
24088 | Don Tale Mayes | – | -125 |
Ultimate Guide to Sports Betting By 32-Year Sports Betting Veteran
Superstar handicapper Joe Duffy updates a powerful sports handicapping essay penned many years ago. Technology changes and Duffy evolves with that. But some basic premises win year and and year out. Knowing how to adjust, while sticking to sports betting truths is why the CEO http://offshoreinsiders.com remains the best in the world.
Ultimate Guide to Sports Betting By 32-Year Sports Betting Veteran
Superstar handicapper Joe Duffy updates a powerful sports handicapping essay penned many years ago. Technology changes and Duffy evolves with that. But some basic premises win year and and year out. Knowing how to adjust, while sticking to sports betting truths is why the CEO http://offshoreinsiders.com remains the best in the world.
Super Bowl 2021 Odds: Chiefs vs. Saints Most Likely Combatants
According to the oddsmakers, we’re going to see the Chiefs and Saints square off in Super Bowl LV.
SportsBetting created odds for the exact Super Bowl matchup (hopefully) next February. A Chiefs-Saints Super Bowl has 25/1 odds while the 49ers-Chiefs rematch and a Bucs-Chiefs marquee match are both listed at 28/1.
Meanwhile, tied for the worst odds to meet in Super Bowl LV are teams with the top two picks in the draft, Cincinnati and Washington.
Top 10 Super Bowl Matchup Odds
Saints vs. Chiefs +2500
49ers vs. Chiefs +2800
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs +2800
Saints vs. Ravens +3000
49ers vs. Ravens +3000
Buccaneers vs. Ravens +3000
Cowboys vs. Chiefs +3300
Cowboys vs. Ravens +4000
Eagles vs. Chiefs +4000
Seahawks vs. Chiefs +4000
Bottom 10 Super Bowl Matchup Odds
Panthers vs. Dolphins +200000
Panthers vs. Jets +200000
Lions vs. Bengals +200000
Lions vs. Jaguars +200000
Giants vs. Bengals +200000
Giants vs. Jaguars +200000
Redskins vs. Jets +200000
Panthers vs. Bengals +300000
Panthers vs. Jaguars +300000
Redskins vs. Jaguars +500000
Redskins vs. Bengals +500000
There isn’t enough room in this email to list all of the 250+ matchups and odds, but you can find your team here:
Additionally, the sportsbook rolled out odds for the 2020 Comeback Player of the Year. Big Ben sits atop the board while JJ Watt, A.J. Green, Nick Foles, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford round out the top 5 best odds. Comeback Player of the Year Odds
Ben Roethlisberger +250
JJ Watt +500
AJ Green +600
Nick Foles +600
Cam Newton +800
Matthew Stafford +800
Myles Garrett +1200
Antonio Brown +2000
Andy Dalton +3300
CJ Mosley +3300
DeSean Jackson +3300
Joe Flacco +3300
Derwin James +4000
Jordan Reed +5000
Akiem Hicks +6600
Alex Smith +6600
Alshon Jeffrey +6600
Bradley Chubb +6600
Keanu Neal +6600
Kwon Alexander +6600
Malcolm Butler +6600
Stephen Gostowksi +6600
Lamar Miller +8000
Trent Williams +8000
TY Hilton +8000
Xavien Howard +8000
Eli Manning +10000
Josh Rosen +10000
Visit OffshoreInsiders.com for the best gambling picks in the world.
UFC 249 Odds
American sports fans will finally get some live shots Saturday night as UFC 249 is set to go down in Florida.
Gamblers are eager for the action as well, and outside of the main fight odds, SportsBetting has rolled out a Super Bowl-size set of prop bets for the event.
Will Bruce Buffer wear a mask, which fighter will bleed first, the quickest fight and who the victors will call out afterward are just some of the props available to bet on.
You can see a select set of the props below and the full list here:
First to bleed
Justin Gaethje -120
Tony Ferguson -120
First to bleed
Anthony Pettis +140
Donald Cerrone -180
Will Gaethje/Ferguson winner say “Khabib” in post-fight octagon interview?
Yes -200
No +150
Will Gaethje/Ferguson winner say “corona” or “COVID” in post-fight octagon interview?
Yes +200
No -300
Will Pettis/Cerrone winner say “Conor” or “McGregor” in post-fight octagon interview?
Yes +160
No -220
Will Bruce Buffer wear a mask in the octagon during main card?
Yes +500
No -1000
Will any ref wear a mask in the octagon during main card?
Yes +200
No -300
Quickest fight to finish
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Francis Ngannou +110
Justin Gaethje vs Tony Ferguson +150
Aleksei Oleinik vs Fabricio Werdum +170
Yorgan De Castro vs Greg Hardy +185
Sam Alvey vs Ryan Spann +225
Niko Price vs Vicente Luque +450
Uriah Hall vs Ronaldo Souza +900
Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis +1000
Charles Rosa vs Bryce Mitchell +1500
Dominick Cruz vs Henry Cejudo +2000
Jeremy Stephens vs Calvin Kattar +2000
Michelle Waterson vs Carla Esparza +3000
Total event decisions by points
Over 5.5
Under 5.5
Total event knockouts and TKOs
Over 5.5
Under 5.5
Total event submissions
Over 1.5
Under 1.5
Props for every main card fight:
Will fight end in a draw, end in Round 1, go the distance
Will fight be won by decision, submission, TKO/KO
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Updated Version of The Ultimate Guide to Being a Wise Guy for Not-so-Dummies
This is a modernized edition of a story scribed a decade or so ago, “The Ultimate Guide to Being a Wise Guy for Not-so-Dummies.” But as technology and resources for intelligence evolve, it warrants refreshing and modernizing. And here we are.
One of the most customary questions that I get is where do Wise Guys and sharp players get so much intel? Just as the only way to Carnegie Hall is practice, practice, practice, the only way to win in sports handicapping is “information, information, information.”
All you need to get that data is to merely live, sleep, and breathe sports handicapping. Perhaps neglect the slumber advice. Siestas are not much of an option in sports soothsaying. An interminable supply of coffee is essential apparatus as well.
Are you still with me? If so, you are ready to be a Wise Guy.
Do handicappers and high rollers really hold inside information? In reality it depends on how strict your definition of “inside information” is. Didn’t Bill Clinton utter that same line or something to that effect?
Wise Guys and the few authentic handicappers out there do have the time, wherewithal and knowledge of where and how to bring to light useful information. To put it mildly, to win consistently which few do, takes a lot of time. We are the one-percenters.
The Internet is bar none the largest apparatus on the planet for obtaining peerless particulars. Funny, in first edition of this thesis, it was the early days of the information superhighway. Now that decloration qualifies are beyond obvious.
Hometown newspapers and in college so often the teams own SID sites are unbeatable for not-so-inside, but certainly little known to the public facts.
Sites that are catered toward the gambler as well as those accommodating just to the general sports fan can be of infinite value as well. In fact, as we will specify, fantasy sports sites are among the best sites for the speculator as injury facts are indispensable to both.
What is a person to do though for reports on the more obscure colleges? It started with Google News, now infused into the main search engine, almost every newspaper is online and a bonanza of locally generated info. If Fairfield is playing Iona, a sports bettor need just go to news.google.com and enter “Fairfield Iona” and Google can find any news stories from that day searching even the small-town scandal sheets.
Furthermore, this is true with high profile colleges and professional sports. Of course one need experiment when it comes to more generic terms like “Arizona” or “Cincinnati” but by adding one of the teams nicknames or a term like basketball can narrow the information to exactly what one wants.
Between news.google.com and ESPN Insider, it can be a Godsend when it comes to info. Since the article was first written, just simply going to Google is at times just as effective. Action Network is decent, but truthfully, I’ve been disappointed in real meat and potatoes daily betting info. It’s mostly as lead generation for the computer database BetLabs and their odds service, which is good, but still inferior to SportsDatabase. SDQL truly if for next generation handicappers.
Oh my word, those who believe the poppycock that preseason football games are a mere crapshoot are truly missing out on the mother lode. Reading the teams stomping ground ledgers are goldmines for learning which teams are taking the exhibitions most seriously at least from a standpoint of a final score.
It is very commonplace for coaches to flat out state that they want to instill a winning habit in the preseason. This is of course truer with fledgling coaches and young and/or traditionally losing franchises. Quarterback and key player rotations can be found with educated research.
In other cases, a little reading will manifest that there are several teams just concerned with looking at certain young players. It is not uncommon for one team to play its starters much longer than the other squad. Best of all, coaches announce it before the game.
Those with limited time can get decent Cliff Notes just by reading the Associated Press stories found on about oh about a million sports sites. The AP stories are at their best in the NFL preseason, though quality information can be had in other sports as well particularly college football. Fantasy football sites continue to escalate the quality of NFLX coverage.
Every now and then I have even uncovered a treasure from the online student newspapers. While there is a select group of beat writers who I feel comfortable accepting what they say at face value, any potential gem that I get from the student papers must be verified, but one would be surprised at the information that can come from the college media itself.
Considering there is a lot of overlapping information with handicapping and fantasy sports, the fantasy sites are also great foundations of sports gambling information. To put it mildly, the fantasy sites like RotoWire, RotoWorld, etc. are no-brainer for the gambler in the NFL. Nobody comes close to not only giving football injuries but also giving a fantastic analysis of how such will affect teams who the replacements are for key injured players, key match-ups and the like.
Don Best’s expensive Premium Service does the best job of real-time late-breaking information.
Orginally the problem with all of the above sites is that all the reader got was a player name and a status. But unless one knows the accurate scoop on every player on every team and their backups, often those injury sites are at best starting points. What good is Squid State, guard Pika Winner; questionable knee when that is the sole information provided?
Is Pika Winner the conference’s best player on a team that has no depth or is he a part-time starter playing for a team whose strength is at his position? Rotowire does a very good job, originally in MLB, but now all pro sports at analyzing how that injury will specifically affect a team. In college sports, they are very imperfect.
But Wise Guys must research, research, and research. More times than not, the teams SID site will give very good information on the particulars of the player: games started, important stats and ditto on his replacement. The home ground fish wraps must be cross-referenced as well.
What are the particulars that I seek out? I cherish when I hear a player or a coach or better yet players (plural) admitting that they suffered a disheartening loss and have to follow it up with another tough game. Such teams make great go-against plays.
This is most true with college basketball and NBA teams that are not true top shelf teams. For the latter this is especially true if a team is playing back-to-back and/or in the midst of a five-games-in-four-nights trip. Fortunately, since those words were initially penned about two decades ago, the aforesaid software programs enable me to store proven situations and tell me when they apply.
Few situations leap at me more than is hoops when a team is on the wrong side of an 11-2 run to lose outright of course) by a point or two then has to play either the next night or the night after. This is most frequent in the NBA but also occur in the Ivy Leagues and West Coast Conference, which play back to back. Generally the remaining conferences on the left coast including the Pac-10 play Thursday and Saturday; so distressing losses are very important factors to track. Keep an eye on teams that play Saturday and Monday as well.
Luckily out software in some sports includes biggest lead or others margin at the end of a quarter. So yes, we can monitor teams that blew 17-points leads in the NFL.
For the NBA keep in mind that NBA.com in conjunction with CBS Sports will give one a play-by-play rundown of the entire pro hoop game. There are some glitches in their system to be honest, but one can for the most part get a 100% accurate breakdown of how a game ended. Of course, since this article was first written, almost all major sites have such, in fact for all sports.
This also applies but with different criterion in baseball–how much the bullpen was used etc, but that is for a future article. Many sites give pitch-by-pitch breakdowns as provided by Stats Inc.
In the NBA especially and this occurs more often than one thinks, I just get giddy when I read that a few players thought their upcoming opponent ran the score up or was shown up by a gratuitous windmill slam dunk or something to that effect. This is especially true if the team that feels they were shown up was on the road in the referenced game and is playing home in the upcoming game. Yes, software can measure revenge situations.
Also certain beat writers especially in the NFL and college football can be outstanding giving accurate unit versus unit breakdowns. But Wise Guys have the experience to distinguish as to who the heck knows what they are talking about and who is blowing smoke
I regret that Sportingnews.com for several years was a must-visit for college football as they broke down literally every Division I game. However they have reduced that feature. Sadly I guess the budget limited the quantity down to the marquee games and quite frankly the quality seemed to go with it.
As mentioned in previous articles, one of the big keys to handicapping games is spotting deceptive final scores in handicapping or how and why teams really lost. That is why any true handicapper must own a satellite dish or a great cable TV sports package. I won’t leave home without it. Well I guess that’s why I don’t leave home. It is also invaluable as far as scouting mismatches in personnel match-ups.
Sophisticated software now enables me to see how a team does after winning a game in which they had 100 fewer total yards. Sports gaming posting boards are good vehicles for gamblers to share information, if one can sift through the garbage. Some of the top SDQL systems I use came from such.
In a perfect world the best sites would be not be moderated but in places like the sports gambling newsgroup and other sites flaming takes precedence over content and forces valuable contributors to go to the refereed sites.
Much like distinguishing from amongst the good beat writers and the unqualified scribes, one must differentiate between the posting board participants who provide quality and accurate insight and those who cannot.
Utilizing the best databases is essential to triumphant prognostication. There are many out there, both free and pay sites.
Covers.com has tremendous databases for all sports. With 10-16 game schedules for college football and the NFL one must as we have stated have the ability to look beyond the mere data. Not ignore it mind you, but an aberrational game here and there can dilute the statistical significance of football raw numbers.
There, you now know the trade secrets. All you need to do is invest 35 hours a day, 10 days a week, 60 weeks a year. Americas greatest sports service, Joe Duffy’s Picks, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com has done it successfully for years and so can you. Check out his famed sports betting podcast.
Korean Baseball Odds Set: KBO Opening Day and League Championship
American baseball fans won’t see their beloved MLB in action for at least another month, but those looking for any hardball semblance will start seeing live action this week.
ESPN has announced a deal to broadcast six KBO League games each week as the South Korean’s baseball season gets underway tomorrow. And of course, where there is live sports there will be odds to bet on.
According to the latest odds from SportsBetting, the Doosan Bears are favored to win the KBO League. The Kiwoon Heroes and SK Wyverns are second and third on the odds board, respectively.
2020 KBO League Odds
Doosan Bears +350
Kiwoom Heroes +450
SK Wyverns +450
NC Dinos +600
KIA Tigers +750
LG Twins +750
Samsung Lions +1000
Lotte Giants +2000
Hanwha Eagles +2000
KT Wiz +2200
KBO teams are limited to three foreign-born players on their rosters, but there are plenty of former MLB players in the league including Dan Straily, Adrian Sampson, Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Preston Tucker and Aaron Altherr.
Here are the odds for Opening Day:
(ESPN)
NC Dinos -130
Samsung Lions +110
Over/Under 8
Kiwoom Heroes -125
KIA Tigers +105
Over/Under 7.5
Lotte Giants +115
KT Wiz Suwon -135
Over/Under 9
Doosan Bears -145
LG Twins +125
Over/Under 8.5
Hanwha Eagles +120
SK Wyverns -140
Over/Under 8.5
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