The Grandmaster is firing on all cylinders. 15-6 overall, 14-7 NFL, 7-3 football this week. The sharp bets both originate here and major syndicates have very similar systems and metrics. That’s why we release many winners early in week for best closing line value. Monday, we released WVU UNDER 48.5 and Navy +14.5. 7-1 Wise Guy plays. Lock in long-term.

Get nine NFL winners including Wise Guy on arguably the best game of the day, Pittsburg-Baltimore. Sides and totals are all part of the early stages of one of JDP’s historic runs.  Get the picks now

SAN FRANCISCO +3 Seattle

• Then undefeated Seahawks blew 27-14 lead to Arizona
• Teams off first loss in which blew a lead of more than a touchdown and a go-against of 9-2
• Larger bubble burst angle is 67-39-4
• Road underdogs of three or more who have been much better on road are 129-89
• Jimmy Garoppolo 11-3 underdog
• Both teams banged up, but Seattle with nine guys who could miss
  • All Pro S Jamal Adams doubtful
  • Top 3 RBs are questionable
• Opened at 5, so not happy with line move

It may be an ugly game for non-bettors (if there is such a monster), but it’s a great opportunity for gamblers as the disappointing Atlanta Falcons take on the Carolina Panthers. Atlanta is 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, going over 4-3. Carolina is 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, splitting 3-3 on totals. Falcons WR Julio Jones has been on the injury report most of the season, but has been taken off,

Odds: Carolina is -2.5, though in some books at -115 or -120. The total is 48, though in a couple of shops barely juiced to the over as the under can be had for -105. Check out NFL live lines as the lines opened at -3 +100 and 51.5.

Public betting percentages: Bettors prefer Carolina with 63 percent of bets and 52 percent of cash on the home team. Sixty-six percent of bets and 69 percent of money are on the over.

Power ratings and computer simulations ATS and OU:: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found 55 percent of simulation favor Atlanta with 64 percent going over. Another has Atlanta covering 53.3 percent of the time with 60.3 going under. Power ratings say Carolina should be -.5 and 50.5 with a 24-23 final expected in favor of Carolina.

Against the spread trends: Atlanta 2-8 after playing Lions, 6-22 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, 6-1 road. Carolina 7-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, 3-8 favorites.

Over-under trends: Atlanta under 10-0 after playing Detroit but over 20-8 versus an opponent with a losing record. Series under 11-3.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. And here we go! 13-7 NFL. Never, ever jump off the bandwagon of the greatest capper in history. Why do you think I’ve been a full-time handicapper since 1988? Thursday, NFL total.  Get the picks now

Superstar Joe Duffy is off a great football betting weekend and has a ton more coming up at OffshoreInsiders.com Here is a free play.

FLORIDA STATE +5 Louisville

• The turbo-charged version of short road underdogs that you have heard about on satellite radio is 824-698-44
• Home teams off bad offensive games are a go-against of 262-169-14
  • Louisville scored seven points to ND
• Fading home teams off three straight road losses is 132-90-2
• Don’t like that they are a trendy dog with 69 percent of bets
• FSU OL showing progress and with Jordan Travis at QB, he buys time with his mobility
  • Banged up but probable
• Cards literally have alternated solid defensive games with horrible ones
  • Last week allowed 12 to ND after allowing 46 to GA Tech
  • Likely to come up with a thud

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills on Monday evening football in a start time made possible thanks to the disaster that is 2020. Each team is 4-1 SU and 3-2 in the back pocket. As the over-under is concerned, KC is 2-2-1 but Buffalo is 4-0-1 to the over. In fact, each team is off their first loss of the season. Teams off a loss in a game in which they were laying at least 9.5 bounce back to the tune of 101-72-5, though only 2-5 the last seven. This includes 63-40 on the road. This super system favors the Chiefs. Teams with at least three wins and off their first loss, when it is a blowout of 25 or more points, are 0-6 ats since 1992. That would say to fade Buffalo and bet on KC. Home underdogs with a winning percentage of .800 or better are 61-40-3. This would favor Buffalo.

Odds: The Chiefs opened up at -3.5 and 58, but are up to -5.5, though the total has dropped to 55.5.

Public betting percentages: As is almost always the case, the public is betting the road favorite with 64 percent of bets and 87 percent of cash on KC. A slight majority of 55 percent of tickets are on the over, with 52 percent of money on under.

Power ratings: The premier power ratings say Kansas City should be -6.5 and 50.5 with a projected final of the Chiefs winning 28-21.

Computer simulations ATS and OU: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found KC covering the -5.5 by 51 percent, with 62 percent going under the 55.5. Their projected final is 29-22 in favor of the road teams. The other elite simulator has KC covering 53.9 percent of the time with 56.6 percent exceeding the total. Their game projection has KC winning by an average of 32.8-26.3.

Against the spread trends: Kansas City is 8-1 versus an opponent with a winning record. Buffalo is 6-2 versus an opponent with a winning record. Buffalo 7-3 series.

Over-under trends: KC over 11-4 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Promised made, promises delivered does it again. The outlier start that could only happen in 2020 is behind us. Winning days Saturday and Sunday, including 7-1 Sunday, sweeping Wise Guys led by NFL Game of the Year Detroit in a beatdown. In fact, the only NFL winner we had to sweat was big underdog Bengals blowing a 21-point lead but holding on.

5 ET NFL side. We told you we are about to explode and here we are. Together!  Get the picks now

Literally finalizing picks, but big NFL Sunday, probably biggest of year and most likely the NFL Game of the Year is coming from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

Chicago-Carolina (-1)

• Fading quality teams off win as a home underdog is 121-70-4
• Bears pretty healthy, though S Deon Bush is out
• Teddy Bridgewater most underrated QB in NFL
• Robby Anderson, DJ Moore two excellent WRs
  • 4^th NFL in yards after catch
  • RBs 3^rd in NFL in yards after contact
• RB Mike Davis with 21 broken tackles
• Bears only 5.7 yards per pass teams normally allowing 7.1 and 5.1 yards per play to 5.8
• Chicago slightly above average defense, but well below offense
  • Allow 344 ypg and get only 323
• Panthers 399.6 yards per game allow 355.6

Pick: PANTHERS -1

Free winning pick from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

Ravens (-7.5)-Eagles

• Baltimore is 4-1 SU including 2-0 road, Philly 1-3-1 SU, 0-1-1 home
• Sets up anti-splits angle about fading road teams who have been better on road than home team has been at home is 142-108-11 (Eagles)
• Eagles 1-4 ats -5.8 but sets up a great regression to the mean angle about betting on bad teams 194-116-13
• Yes Jackson is one of the top road QBs, but you can’t bet retroactively and 7.5 points on the road is a ton
• Eagles allowed to have about 6,000 fans
• Admittedly our power ratings, two say the line is about right; another simulator likes Ravens and big road favorites have been good plays in recent years
• Probably short of premium play

FREE: EAGLES

Bet NFL live lines, latest odds

The bookies still believe Dallas can get it done with Andy Dalton. Or maybe they just don’t have faith in any of the other teams from the feeble NFC East.

The Cowboys were -150 favorites to capture the division going into Week 4, and their odds only slightly worsened as they move forward without Dak Prescott.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Cowboys still have relatively low Super Bowl odds, coming in at 25-1.

Despite their loss yesterday, the Chiefs remain Super Bowl LV favorites. The Ravens and Seahawks round out the top 3 on the board.

All odds are current from SportsBetting a licensed online sportsbook in Colorado.

Division odds –

AFC East
Bills -265
Patriots +230
Dolphins +2200
Jets +10000

AFC North
Ravens -175
Steelers +230
Browns +500
Bengals +10000

AFC South
Titans -110
Colts +120
Texans +800
Jaguars +5000

AFC West
Chiefs -1000
Raiders +600
Chargers +2500
Broncos +5000

NFC East
Cowboys -125
Eagles +120
Redskins +1200
Giants +3500

NFC North
Packers -330
Bears +340
Vikings +1500
Lions +2200

NFC South
Saints +100
Buccaneers +130
Panthers +500
Falcons +6600

NFC West
Seahawks -165
Rams +300
Cardinals +600
49ers +1000

Super Bowl odds –

Kansas City Chiefs 4-1
Baltimore Ravens 5-1
Seattle Seahawks 8-1
Green Bay Packers 10-1
New Orleans Saints 11-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 12-1
Buffalo Bills 14-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16-1
Los Angeles Rams 18-1
Dallas Cowboys 25-1
Indianapolis Colts 25-1
New England Patriots 25-1
Cleveland Browns 28-1
Tennessee Titans 28-1
San Francisco 49ers 33-1
Chicago Bears 40-1
Las Vegas Raiders 40-1
Philadelphia Eagles 50-1
Minnesota Vikings 60-1
Arizona Cardinals 60-1
Carolina Panthers 66-1
Los Angeles Chargers 80-1
Houston Texans 100-1
Detroit Lions 125-1
Miami Dolphins 150-1
Denver Broncos 150-1
Atlanta Falcons 250-1
Cincinnati Bengals 250-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 300-1
Washington 2500-1
New York Giants 3500-1
New York Jets 5000-1

AFC Odds
Kansas City Chiefs 2-1
Baltimore Ravens 5-2
New England Patriots 12-1
Houston Texans 60-1
Cleveland Browns 14-1
Los Angeles Chargers 45-1
Tennessee Titans 14-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 13-2
Buffalo Bills 8-1
Indianapolis Colts 12-1
Las Vegas Raiders 22-1
Denver Broncos 75-1
New York Jets 250-1
Cincinnati Bengals 125-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 150-1
Miami Dolphins 75-1

NFC Odds
New Orleans Saints 11-1
San Francisco 49ers 14-1
Philadelphia Eagles 22-1
Dallas Cowboys 10-1
Green Bay Packers 4-1
Seattle Seahawks 3-1
Los Angeles Rams 17-2
Chicago Bears 18-1
Minnesota Vikings 25-1
Arizona Cardinals 18-1
Atlanta Falcons 125-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-1
New York Giants 200-1
Detroit Lions 55-1
Carolina Panthers 28-1
Washington 125-1

OffshoreInsiders.com has all the winners on a daily basis! Follow the Twitter sports betting feed for breaking gambling, sports handicapping, and wagering intel including free sports picks and information.