OffshoreInsiders.com CEO Joe Duffy breaks down key intel for week 15 NFL betting. 

• Road teams on grass off a game in which they were held to single-digit points and less than 125 rushing yards are 75-24-3 on grass. This favors New England over Miami
• Teams averaging less than 1.7 turnovers per game are 37-5-1 when off a game as home underdogs, facing a team averaging at least 12.75 first downs per game. This favors Detroit over Tennessee
• Atlanta Falcons all-world WR Julio Jones is questionable missing practice Thursday
• Cowboys star RB Zeke Elliot questionable-to-probable after missing practice ThursdayTea leaves say mostly a precaution, so we think he’ll play
• Panthers superstar RB Christian McCaffrey doubtfulPanthers play Saturday night
• Giants QB Daniel Jones is questionableSources say a slight lean in the probable direction
• Redskins RB Antonio Smith and QB Alex Smith are both questionable
• Bengals RB Joe Mixon remains out

Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. 16-8 NFL. Three college football winners Friday led by two Wise Guys, including Friday Night Game of the Year. Saturday, it is five college football led by three Wise Guys. Sunday, seven NFL Wise Guy bets as we build on our run. Get the picks now 

Top sportsbook consensus, percentage of:

✅Bets: Cleveland (73), Houston (71)

✅Money: San Francisco (95), Tampa (89), LA Rams (86)

Biggest line moves at top books such as MyBookie NFL live lines, latest odds (lookahead opener followed by current): Tampa -1.5 to -6, Rams -13.5 to -17.5, Minnesota -6 down to -3, Seattle -3 to -5.5

Best teams to bet on based on margin of cover

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
Miami	10-3	+7.5
Washington	8-5	+5
Pittsburgh	8-5	+3.5

Best teams to bet against based on margin of cover

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
NY Jets	4-9	-16.2
Dallas	3-10	-6
LA Chargers	6-7	-5.2
Detroit	6-7	-4

Biggest over teams

Team	OU Record	OU margin
Cleveland	8-5	+6.7
Tennessee	9-3-1	+6.3
Las Vegas	9-3-1	+6.1

Biggest under teams

Team	OU Record	OU margin
NY Giants	3-10	-5.3
LA Rams	4-9	-3.8
Miami	5-8	-3.2

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

Joe Duffy has three college football winners Friday led by two Wise Guys, including Friday Night Game of the Year. Saturday, it is five college football led by three Wise Guys. Sunday, seven NFL Wise Guy bets as we build on our run. Get it at OffshoreInsiders.com    

Free college basketball winner from Joe Duffy for Wednesday.

OHIO STATE +5 Purdue

Oddsmakers overreact to E.J. Liddell probably being out. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 64 percent, with O-H winning by a point. Another top model has our side covering 59.8 percent. KenPom has Purdue winning by just a point. Of course I am concerned about the injury, but look for Buckeyes to make zone adjustments and stay within number at Bet Now

Kyle Trask was the overwhelming favorite to take home Heisman honors just a few weeks ago. Now, Trask trails the quarterback he’ll oppose next week in the SEC Championship. 

Mac Jones is the Heisman favorite with -200 (or 1-2) odds at SportsBetting  

Trask is second on the board at 3-1 while Alabama wideout Devonta Smith is ahead of the other QBs from the nation’s top teams at 10-1.

The preseason favorite, Trevor Lawrence, has seen his odds fall to 14-1.

Florida’s loss to LSU no doubt hurt Trask’s Heisman chances, and the Gators saw their national championship odds take a hit as well. Their odds went from 12-1 last week to 80-1, currently. 

If Florida can somehow beat Alabama as a 16.5-point underdog this weekend, Trask and the Gators could be back in the Heisman and CFP hunt. 

Below are odds for the CFP Championship, Heisman Trophy and conference championship games.

CFP Championship 
Alabama 5-7 
Clemson 5-2 
Ohio State 5-1 
Notre Dame 8-1 
Texas A&M 40-1 
Iowa State 50-1 
Oklahoma 66-1 
Cincinnati 80-1 
Florida 80-1 
Northwestern 80-1 
Coastal Carolina 200-1

Heisman Trophy
Mac Jones 1-2 
Kyle Trask 3-1 
Devonta Smith 10-1 
Ian Book 12-1 
Trevor Lawrence 14-1 
Justin Fields 30-1

SEC
Florida vs. Alabama -16.5
(Early spread last week was -13.5)

ACC
Notre Dame vs. Clemson -11.5
(Early spread last week was -10.5)

Big Ten
Northwestern vs. Ohio State -18.5
(Early spread last week was -20.5)

Big 12
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma -4.5
(Early spread last week was -5)

AAC
Tulsa vs. Cincinnati -15.5

Sun Belt
UL Lafayette vs. Coastal Carolina -4.5

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Joe Duffy has a free winning pick for tonight. Duffy exploits same systems Billy Walters betting syndicate does. Saturday, CBS Total of the Year, ESPN Big Ten Total of the Year among eight Wise Guys. We are 10-5 NFL and so much more winning ahead. Six NFL winners for this Sunday at OffshoreInsiders.com    

Free college basketball pick is:

IOWA -13 Iowa State

Iowa State is a bad team and has nobody to match up with Luka Garza, the top player in the country and Iowa big man. Jalen Coleman-Lands is the only decent athlete on ISU, but he’s 6-4 and can’t keep up with the speed of Iowa. Iowa State was losing by three at halftime to Arkansas Pine-Bluff, one of the worst teams in the country. They were beaten at home by a middling South Dakota State team. Now they take on an Iowa team outscoring foes by 27.8 ppg including beating North Carolina by 13, tonight’s spread. 

Iowa State has no true point guard since lost Tyrese Haliburton. They didn’t replace his scoring either. Iowa will crush them with speed, then beat them down low with gross mismatch with Garza. 

One of the dumbest myths is sports is the adage to take the double-digits in big rivalries. Pure balderdash. It means Iowa will be very focused against inferior team and have no compunction to run up the score against a recruiting rival. What’s more effective in recruiting than saying don’t consider that program, we crushed them by 30? We bet at GTBets

As of Saturday morning all nine football and basketball games are available, CBS Total of the Year, ESPN Big Ten Total of the Year among seven Wise Guys. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are the single strongest bet in gambling. Named plays are the bane of every bookie. Two college basketball winners Get the picks now 

Free pick:

ALABAMA -32 Arkansas at MyBookie

Momentum angle that says go with a team off a blowout win versus a defense that got lit up last game is 135-65-5. Fading poor first half teams that are playing at home if they are off a high-scoring game is 622-462-21. When both apply, it is 16-5-1. Big conference away favorites have been a nice play since 2009 at 145-89-6 including 61-34-2 at home. One of our simulators has the Tide covering 58.5 percent of the, just 38.8 for Hogs, with a few pushes mixed in. 

Great night winning picks. Wise Guy among three winners at 7 ET or later. We have a Wise Guy in which our top model has them covering nearly 70 percent and another power ratings has this underdog winning outright and covering by 7.5. Get Joe Duffy’s portfolio at OffshoreInsiders.com  

Free pick from Joe Duffy

RICHMOND -8 Northern Iowa at Bovada

Richmond covers an impressive 66 percent of simulations on our top model, winning 83-69. Yes, I have said many times I’ll take talent over experience. However, in 2020 where teams have limited practice time, the fact the Spiders are a veteran time is huge. They run a modified Princeton offense, which requires patience, experience, faith in teammates. They have been running it with precision as a unit for some time. They have five guys averaging double figures. This is even more important this year because it shows they can play well as cohesive unit. 

It takes similar qualities to defense, but Northern Iowa has had their share of guys in and out of lineup. A.J Green is their best player and is doubtful. They are also without Antwan Kimmons and Tytan Anderson. Yes, they got Trae Barlow back, but just his second game back and first against a quality foe. He came back against a D2 foe. He missed time because of Covid. 

Jacob Gilyard is lightning quick for Spiders and poor defense of Northern Iowa. They have nobody to guard him. Austin Phyfe likely to guard Grant Golden and he’s horrible. 

The Washington Football Team pulled off a massive upset against the undefeated Steelers on Monday, and some of their personnel are reaping benefits in the arena of projected accolades.

Alex Smith solidified his frontrunner position as the Comeback Player of the Year over Ben Roethlisberger, and Ron Rivera gained ground on Mike Tomlin in the Coach of the Year race.

SportsBetting has updated its odds for the primary NFL awards categories (MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year and Coach of the Year) which you can find below. 

Going into Week 13, Rivera had 30-1 odds to be named the league’s best coach. But his chances dropped to 20-1 after a gutty performance at Pittsburgh. 

Smith has been the odds-on favorite for Comeback Player of the Year for a few weeks, and his odds jumped to -1500 after Monday’s comeback victory.

T.J. Watt and Aaron Donald are neck-and-neck for the DPOY honor, but Myles Garrett is gaining ground. 

Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert remain the favorites for MVP and ROY, respectively. Get daily winners at OffshoreInsiders.com and get paid on time at SportsBetting 

MVP 
Patrick Mahomes 1-4
Aaron Rodgers 3-1
Russell Wilson 10-1
Ben Roethlisberger 25-1
Josh Allen 50-1
Derrick Henry 100-1
Kyler Murray 100-1
Dalvin Cook 100-1
Alvin Kamara 100-1

Defensive Player of the Year 
TJ Watt 7-4
Aaron Donald 7-4
Myles Garrett 7-2
Xavien Howard 15-1
Jalen Ramsey 20-1
Cameron Heyward 20-1
Khalil Mack 25-1
Devin White 30-1
Fred Warner 30-1
Stephon Tuitt 40-1
Joey Bosa 40-1
Trey Hendrickson 50-1
Za`Darius Smith 50-1

Offensive Rookie of the Year 
Justin Herbert 1-7
Justin Jefferson 5-1
Tua Tagovailoa 20-1
Chase Claypool 25-1
James Robinson 25-1
Antonio Gibson 25-1

Comeback Player of the Year 
Alex Smith 1-15
Ben Roethlisberger 8-1

Coach of the Year 
Mike Tomlin 1-1
Brian Flores 5-2
Kevin Stefanski 6-1
Sean Payton 10-1
Frank Reich 15-1
Andy Reid 15-1
Matt LaFleur 20-1
Ron Rivera 20-1
Mike Vrabel 30-1
Sean McDermott 30-1
Joe Judge 40-1
Jon Gruden 50-1
Kyle Shanahan 50-1

Despite a 1-3 record, Kentucky is still one of the National Championship favorites, according to the odds. 

With nearly two weeks of play in the books, SportsBetting has opened adjusted odds for the NCAA Men’s college basketball title. 

Gonzaga is now a clear-cut favorite at the top of the odds board at 3-1. The Zags and Baylor (6-1) are the only two teams with single-digit odds.

Kentucky has fallen to 16-1 after opening the season with 10-1 odds to win it all.

Duke and Virginia, both handed home upsets already this year, have seen their odds drop from 32-1 and 26-1, respectively.

Iowa squares off with North Carolina tomorrow, and despite the disparity in the teams’ rankings, the Tar Heels have the same championship odds as the Hawkeyes. 

Here are the biggest risers and fallers in terms of the odds, and complete title odds for the 2020-21 season are below. 

Odds are courtesy of Colorado-based sportsbook SportsBetting
Notable Risers
Gonzaga 9-1 to 3-1
Baylor 12-1 to 6-1
Marquette 100-1 to 47-1
NC State 150-1 to 47-1

Notable Fallers
Villanova 8-1 to 13-1
Kentucky 10-1 to 16-1
Duke 15-1 to 32-1
Virginia 15-1 to 26-1
Florida State 28-1 to 80-1
Oregon 28-1 to 70-1
Michigan 33-1 to 110-1
Arizona State 40-1 to 80-1
Florida 40-1 to 80-1
Arizona 50-1 to 125-1
UConn 50-1 to 150-1
UCLA 50-1 to 150-1

National Championship Odds
Gonzaga 3-1
Baylor 6-1
Villanova 13-1
Kentucky 16-1
Michigan State 16-1
Iowa 21-1
Kansas 21-1
North Carolina 21-1
West Virginia 21-1
Illinois 24-1
Virginia 26-1
Texas Tech 26-1
Tennessee 26-1
Texas 26-1
Duke 32-1
Wisconsin 32-1
Indiana 32-1
Creighton 40-1
Louisville 40-1
Houston 47-1
Ohio State 47-1
Marquette 47-1
NC State 47-1
Purdue 65-1
Arkansas 65-1
LSU 65-1
Richmond 65-1
Rutgers 65-1
Oregon 70-1
Florida 70-1
Maryland 70-1
Florida State 80-1
Arizona State 80-1
Alabama 80-1
Oklahoma 90-1
Michigan 110-1
Stanford 110-1
Colorado 110-1
Memphis 110-1
Miami 110-1
SMU 110-1
St. Louis 110-1
Xavier 110-1
Virginia Tech 110-1
Arizona 125-1
Connecticut 150-1
UCLA 150-1
San Diego State 150-1
Seton Hall 150-1
USC 150-1
Syracuse 150-1
Utah 150-1
Davidson 150-1
Notre Dame 175-1
Penn State 175-1
Butler 200-1
BYU 200-1
Dayton 200-1
Ole Miss 200-1
Western Kentucky 200-1
Cincinnati 200-1
South Carolina 200-1
St. Mary’s CA 200-1
Texas A&M 200-1
Minnesota 200-1
VCU 200-1
Georgia 200-1
Providence 200-1

Joe Duffy with a massive weekend of football up at OffshoreInsiders.com The Grandmaster is 3-0 in football this week. 

Free pick:

TOLEDO -2 Eastern Michigan at Bovada

One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 69 percent. Toledo balanced with four guys averaging double-figures. Fifth game for Toledo, just second for Eastern Michigan and teams with at least least four games under their belt playing teams with a max of one game cover about 56 percent of the time.