Sweet 16 market watch, plus NBA betting intel using the same criterion. Keep in mind, the adage “public dogs die” is true, though not as much in the postseason where JoeyBagOfDonuts is willing to bet on underdogs.
🏀Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Miami Florida, Providence (dog); Pistons
🏀Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Providence (dog); Pistons, Heat
🏀Biggest splits in terms of percent of tickets versus the percent of cash: St. Peter’s 53 percent of bets, but only 22 percent of cash; Houston Rockets 57 but a mere 23 percent of cash.
🏀Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Miami Hurricanes opened at -1, now -3 is the only one of note in NCAA Tournament today. In the NBA, the public is also loving Miami, as the Heat went from -5.5 to -7.5.
Top expert pick: Houston Cougars, my only Wise Guy, wins easily. I go 2-1 in Dance and am now 23-13 with postseason college basketball! Holy hell. The NCAA Tournament Game of the Year goes Friday among three NCAA Tournament winners. The winningest capper in world history with the GOY? You have an easy decision, Bubba.
The Grandmaster has added five NBA winners as well. Get the picks now
Most contrarian bettors love to fade the bets in the first category “percentage of bets.” The belief is that the public is almost always wrong (which is why bookmakers make a lot of money) by chasing square theories. Hence betting against them is a winning proposition. Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com is widely accepted as the top sports handicapper in the world. He prefers percent of tickets, which weighs $5 bettors the same as $500 and $5,000 a game wagerers saying, “If anything, the small bettor is the ultimate fade.”
While not completely disagreeing, Cy McCormick of the Masterlockline asserts that he prefers betting against the money. “Bookmakers always win long-term, so I want to be rooting for the same side they are,” while pointing out it is the money, not number of bets that will move the line.
Others like corroboration. If the same team is loved by both the handle and volume of bets, that’s “Truly a public play,” according to noted gambler Big Red. Finally, the splits are considered a sharp versus square metric. If majority of bets are on side A, but most of the money is on side B, some gamblers consider this equating to side B betting a sharp versus square bet.