Sports betting notes for October 1 college football picks
🔥Revenge for Iowa as Michigan slaughtered them in Big Ten Championship 42-3
🔥Kansas State tries to avoid letdown after shocking Oklahoma
🔥Purdue fighting numerous injuries
🔥Teams off byes versus opponent that played last week: Oklahoma State, Fresno, Gardner Webb, Nebraska, UAB
🔥Kansas is 4-0 SU and ATS yet outgained in two of those wins
🔥South Alabama, Kansas both 4-0 ATS, covering by 18.3 and 17.5 points per game respectively
🔥0-4 ATS teams and how much they are failing to cover by Colorado State -20.5, Nebraska -18.4, Utah State -16.9
🔥Teams over 4-0 Bowling Green by 21.4 points per game, Ohio by 17.4
🔥Teams under all four Texas A&M -18.1 points per game, Virginia -17.9
🔥Texas A&M without star WR Ainias Smith
🔥WKU has scored at last 30 points in 18 straight games
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CFB
South Carolina State-South Carolina UNDER 57
Team statistics relative to the cumulative average off all of college football and current total goes under a stunning 585-337-19. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 883-534-30.
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Free College Football Picks
ARMY -7.5 Georgia State
Army crushed Villanova 49-10, while Georgia State lost for the fourth straight time. Momentum angle is 550-413-29 and yes very much applies in tune-up games where the team was a large favorite and won in a blowout.
WESTERN KENTUCKY -6 Troy
WKU just crushed Florida International 73-0, Momentum angle is 550-413-29 and yes very much applies in tune-up games where the team was a large favorite and won in a blowout. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found WKU covering at a rate 59 percent.
Here are the best teams to bet on and against based on spread margin.
Best spread teams this season:
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
James Madison
3-0
19
South Alabama
4-0
18.3
Kansas
4-0
17.5
MTSU
3-1
14.8
Worst spread teams or best to bet against:
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Florida International
0-3
-22.3
Colorado State
0-4
-20.5
Nebraska
0-4
-18.4
Utah State
0-4
-16.9
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
Best over teams:
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
North Carolina
3-1
28.1
Bowling Green
4-0
21.4
Ohio
4-0
17.4
West Virginia
3-1
15.9
Best under teams:
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
Texas A&M
0-4
-18.1
Virginia
0-4
-17.9
Iowa
1-3
-15.8
Louisville
1-3
-14
GA Tech
0-4
-13.8
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I do not know the personnel as well as others. I’ve been gambling for about 40 years and a pro gambler and handicapper since 1988. It’s about advanced analytics. It’s why those of us who rely on artificial intelligence are better than everyone else. Do you have this kind of NextGen info when you bet? If not, your choice has consequences. Thanks for keeping the books in biz for us pros. Or begin the rest of your life at OffshoreInsiders.com with Joe Duffy’s Picks.
NFL
Wise Guy
HOUSTON +2.5 Chicago
Road dogs in non-divisional games based on completion percentage and rushing yards per attempt are 59-16-1. Admittedly a coin flip in recent years, but as corroborating evidence, road teams off road loss are a good bet 346-296-18. Going against favorites who are almost always underdogs is 160-98-12. Houston is a weird 1-0-1 SU, losing on the road. Chicago is 1-1 SU, winning to San Francisco at home, implying Bears are the better team. But I have told you for decades straight up record is the most deceiving stat in sports. Home field is worth three points, yet Chicago, with the better record is laying less than that. When the overall and splits records both strongly imply the road team should be a much bigger dog, but are not, we weaponize that against them with a 106-67 record.
ATLANTA +2 Seattle
Road dogs in non-divisional games based on completion percentage and rushing yards per attempt are 59-16-1. Admittedly a coin flip in recent years, but as corroborating evidence, road teams off road loss are a good bet 346-296-18. Going against favorites who are almost always underdogs is 160-98-12. When the overall and splits records both strongly imply the road team should be a much bigger dog, but are not, we weaponize that against them with a 106-67 record. Yes this is a pick. We cut and pasted the Houston example by accident, but the same system applies.
GREEN BAY +2 Tampa
Betting on the more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 348-239-15. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total. Road teams winless on the road are 191-132 under specific situations that apply in this game. Fading teams in home opener in week 3 is 60-37.
Major
PHILADELPHIA -6.5 Washington
If the home team has been better home than in the road, regression to the mean angle favors the road team 157-113-1.
DETROIT +6 Minnesota
If the home team has been better home than in the road, regression to the mean angle favors the road team 157-113-1. Betting on the more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 348-239-15. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total.
Washington-Philadelphia UNDER 47
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1550-1217-61. It is okay in playoffs, but much better in regular season.
Carolina-New Orleans UNDER 40.5
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1550-1217-61. It is okay in playoffs, but much better in regular season.
LA Rams-Arizona UNDER 49
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1550-1217-61. It is okay in playoffs, but much better in regular season.
Atlanta-Seattle UNDER 42
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1550-1217-61. It is okay in playoffs, but much better in regular season.
🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Cincinnati, Baltimore, San Francisco. The normal away favorites infatuation. Buffalo OVER
🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Atlanta, Cincinnati; Detroit OVER, LA Chargers UNDER
🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Denver -2.5 to +1, Cincinnati -4 to -6, NY Giants -3 to -1
🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Jacksonville, Carolina, Houston; Washington UNDER
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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale.
The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets.
🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Utah, ODU, Michigan; Vanderbilt OVER
🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Eastern Michigan, TCU, GA Southern, WKU; MTSU OVER, FIU OVER, Purdue UNDER
🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Minnesota +2 to -3, WKU -27.5 to -31.5, SMU -1 to +2.5, UNC +1 to -2.5
🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Rice; BYU UNDER, Oregon State UNDER, Oklahoma UNDER
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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale.
The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets.
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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale.
The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets.
NFL
🔥Browns edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney and Chase Winovich are out. Myles Garrett has been upgraded to probable
🔥Steelers without TJ Watt
🔥Steelers 3-8-1 ATS after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
🔥Cleveland 21-48-1 off loss
🔥Pittsburgh under 44-18 road
🔥Cleveland under 6-1 Thursdays
NCAAF
🔥VA Tech 1-11 off win
🔥WVU under 53-26 after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game
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Over the previous three years, 27 NFL teams started the season 0-2. None of them made the playoffs.
Three teams who made the playoffs last year, including the conference’s top seed and the AFC champion, are not favored to make the tournament after 0-2 starts.
SportsBetting updates its NFL Playoffs odds and victory totals for all 32 teams every week of the season, which you can find via the links below.
If you are able to use this information, please consider citing the source.
Here are the numbers, current and preseason, for the aforementioned winless clubs.
Bengals Make Playoffs?
Yes +145
No -175
(Odds imply a 40.8% probability Cincinnati will not make the playoffs. Bengals were -130 to make playoffs during the preseason.)
Titans Make Playoffs?
Yes +130
No -160
(Odds imply a 43.5% probability Tennessee will not make the playoffs. Titans were -125 to make playoffs during the preseason.)
Raiders Make Playoffs?
Yes +230
No -260
(Odds imply a 30.3% probability Las Vegas will not make the playoffs. Raiders were +170 to make playoffs during the preseason.)
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