Week 12 NFL betting market report. 

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Miami, LA Chargers 

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: New Orleans; Las Vegas OVER, Jacksonville UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Miami -11 to -14, NY Jets -4.5 to -6.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: New Orleans; San Francisco UNDER

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

Ohio State suffered a mauling at the claws of Michigan yesterday, and the loss pushed the Buckeyes out of the Top 4 in terms of CFP Championship chances for the first time all year. 

Additionally, Caleb Williams has put the Heisman Trophy race to bed, at least according to the odds. CJ Stroud and Max Duggan are now 25-1 longshots with Williams the overwhelming, odds-on favorite. 

Below are the latest CFP and Heisman numbers from SportsBetting   

CFP Championship

Georgia                        -165

Michigan                      +300

TCU                              +1200

USC                              +1200

Ohio State                    +1400

Alabama                       +2800

Heisman Trophy                       

Caleb Williams              -3000

CJ Stroud                      +2500

Max Duggan                 +2500

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Turkey day college and NFL market report. My word, OffshoreInsiders.com has the strongest industry bets in every football game, plus Duffy with massive college basketball portfolio. 

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: NY Giants, 

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Ole Miss

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Dallas -7 to -10; Ole Miss -5.5 to -1.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets.

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

[Table id=1 /] 

Below you will find a cornucopia of Thanksgiving Day props for the trio of NFL games, courtesy of at Betonline, the home of the opening line .

Also, speaking of being thankful…have you ever wondered which NFL fanbase complains the most about officiating?

Well, a semi-scientific Twitter study was recently conducted to find out which team’s fans whine about the refs the most, and the results are a bit surprising. 

BetOnline conducted the study using geo-tagged Twitter data via an API trends software. From Week 1 to Week 11, the sampling compiled and analyzed tweets, hashtags and keyword phrases tracking negative fan tweets about NFL officiating for each team. 

To find out who complains the most, the team looked at the total number of fan tweets (in general) and then determined what percentage of those tweets were complaints about refs.

For example, we looked at all tweets with the fan hashtag #ChiefsKingdom, that also included phrases like, “bad call,” “horrible call,” “bad officiating,” “horrible officiating,” “missed call,” “horrible refs,” “refs beat us,” “refs screwed us,” etc. Then repeated this for all the other teams and their hashtags. 

More than 400,000 tweets were tracked. Here is an informap to accompany the findings

As you can see from the graphic, the Chiefs, Bears and Cowboys fans have the most gripes, while Colts fans complain the least.

The top 10 fan bases that complain most about NFL officiating are as follows: (percentage of total tweets that are ref complaints)

Chiefs – 12.78%

Bears – 11.88%

Cowboys – 10.55%

Dolphins – 10.20%

Titans – 9.09%

Commanders – 8.96%

Lions – 8.00%

Eagles – 5.93%

Vikings – 5.85%

Patriots – 5.34%

Thanksgiving Records Broken                

Most Receiving Yards – A.Johnson 188                +500

Most Passing Yards – T.Aikman 455                    +700

Most Sacks – C.Jordan 4                                     +1600

Most Receiving TDs – S.Sharpe 4                        +2000

Most Passing TDs – P.Manning 6                         +2500

Most Rushing Yards – OJ.Simpson 273                +3300

Thanksgiving Passing Yards Leader                    

J.Allen                          +250

K.Cousins                      +300

D.Prescott                    +400

J.Goff                           +425

M.Jones                        +625

D.Jones                         +1000

Thanksgiving Receiving Yards Leader                

J.Jefferson                    +200

S.Diggs                         +350

A.St.Brown                   +500

C.Lamb                         +600

G.Davis                         +1000

J.Meyers                       +1400

A.Thielen                      +2000

D.Slayton                      +2000

M.Gallup                      +2000

TJ Hockenson                +2500

Thanksgiving Rushing Yards Leader                   

S.Barkley                      +350

D.Cook                         +375

T.Pollard                       +500

R.Stevenson                  +650

D.Singletary                  +750

J.Williams                     +750

Josh Allen                     +1200

E.Elliott                         +1400

Daniel Jones                 +2000

Damien Harris               +2500

Will there be a special teams/defensive TD on Thanksgiving?                

Yes                   -200

No                    +150

Will any Thanksgiving game go to overtime?                 

No                    -900

Yes                   +500

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Basketball market report for Monday. 

First to the NBA:

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Cleveland, Oklahoma City; Atlanta OVER

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Minnesota; Indiana UNDER, Boston OVER

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Chicago, Cleveland UNDER, Indiana UNDER

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: New Orleans -5.5 to -10.5, LA Clippers -4.5 to -1

Onward to college hoops:

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Arizona 

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Florida Gulf Coast

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Miss State, South Florida 

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Abilene Christian +3 to -2.5, Cal Riverside +1 to -3.5, Kansas State -8.5 to -11.5

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Thanksgiving week is one of the biggest in football betting. In between beating World Cup odds, here is the early steam report in NFL and college football betting from sportsbooks all over the world such as vetted LUX Sports. 

Early NFL steam:

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: LA Chargers, Tennessee, Miami; Minnesota UNDER

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington; Minnesota UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: No significant line moves yet

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: LA Rams, NY Jets; San Francisco UNDER

Early college football steam:

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: LSU, Auburn, UNC

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Illinois, Kansas State, Michigan

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Eastern Michigan -1.5 to +1.5, Utah State -14.5 to -16.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Boston College, USC

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

College football top over and under teams at top sportsbooks for college football and NFL odds based on margin of cover.

Top over teams:

Team	OU Record (overs-under)	OU margin
Houston	9-2	+12.6
South Florida	7-3-1	+8.7
Toledo	6-5	+8.2

In terms of percentage, Rice, Northern Illinois, Ohio State, UCLA, Memphis, Colorado, Penn State, USC, Arkansas are all 8-3 to the over, tied for second to Houston. Rice has the highest cover margin of said teams, going over by an average of 6.0 points per game. 

Top under teams in college football:

Team	OU Record (overs-under)	OU margin
Iowa State	2-9	-12
Marshall	2-9	-11.5
Virginia	2-7-1	-11.4
Troy	4-7	-10.1
Kentucky	1-10	-9.1

 Colorado State is second in terms of under percentage at 1-9-1 but only by an average of -6.8 points per game. 

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

Today’s college football market report, Saturday, November 19 from Joe Duffy. 

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Charlotte, Oklahoma St; TCU OVER

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Colorado St, Charlotte, Navy; MTSU UNDER, GA Southern UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Oregon -2 to +2.5, Utah State +3 to pick, Wisconsin -12.5 to -9.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: UAB, Arizona State; Florida State UNDER

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

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This is the intel you get every damn day. Of course the ONLY loser is when a 28.5 dog explodes for the final eight points of the game for a horrific bad beat so we settle for 5-1. Did you read the intel? Joe Duffy, OffshoreInsiders.com

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet. 

NFL 

Wise Guy

TENNESSEE +3 Green Bay

Interconference Prime Time Game of the Year 

Fade teams in a short week off an overtime game is 21-2. In fact, underdogs are 8-4 SU. Fade home teams that had good fortune based on penalties resulting in first downs last game is 554-432-35. Fading offenses as favorites with at least 90 more snaps is 223-173-10.

CBB

Major

CHARLESTON -3.5 Davidson

This is an outsourced pick from the short-list of very entrusted experts. Previously called a competitor consensus, the name was changed to reflect it does not always come from the few quality professionals who sell picks, but also can come from any sharp source. As long as I am not leaning the other way, I will bet a trusted outscource. Both of our contrarian indexes, one worldwide sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has this as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide.

CREIGHTON -18.5 UC Riverside

Highly ranked teams in non-conference home games make big statements. In fact, generally the bigger the favorite the better to the tune of 271-198. Our tremendous data-engineering model has our pick covering 62 percent of time by 22 points per game. 

ARIZONA -28.5 Utah State

Highly ranked teams in non-conference home games make big statements. In fact, generally the bigger the favorite the better to the tune of 271-198. Our best advanced computer model has Zona covering 64 percent of simulations by an average of 32 points.

NBA

Wise Guy

San Antonio-Sacramento OVER 236

Western Conference Total of the Month 

When the total is much higher than that of the total of each teams last game, listen to what the oddsmakers are telling us because it goes over 595-413-52. Our top-rated simulator program has them going over 74 percent of time with an average of 250 points scored.

Major 

Detroit-LA Clippers UNDER 216

Total relative to last two games goes under 393-237-21. Total relative to recent numbers goes under 2069-1410-148.

This is a basic theory that crosses over all sports and makes you and me a fortune in totals betting and each sports involves samples sizes of several thousand games. 

NFL winner for Sunday, November 20 from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy. 

Edit: revised line and location, the bet still applies with a strong angle.

CLEVELAND +7.5 Buffalo

Underdogs versus a great and red-hot offense is 165-101-8.  

Best teams in NFL this year based on margin of cover:

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
NY Jets	6-3	+7.1
Dallas	6-3	+5.1

The Titans and the Giants have the best spread winning percentages at 7-2 but only covering by an average of 1.8 points per game and 3.6 respectively. The Chargers are 6-3 but have a -4.9 margin of cover.

Best teams to bet against based on said criterion.

Team	ATS Record	ATS margin
LA Rams	2-6-1	-8.7
Green Bay	4-6	-5.8
LA Chargers	6-3	-4.9
Colts	4-6	-4.6

Yes the Chargers have an impressive spread record but a horrible spread margin. Conversely, Jacksonville is 3-7 to the number, but has a +3.3 margin of cover. Many believe this means the Jags are undervalued, while LA Chargers would be overvalued. New Orleans is tied for the second worst spread record at 3-7 but by only a -2.3 margin. 

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Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

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Free winning bet from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy is to go with:

MILWAUKEE -4 Cleveland 

An angle that says to go with the more disappointing offense season to date is 449-342-16. Based on delta points scored. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread. 

Our top power ratings have Milwaukee as -7.9 point favorite, giving the Bucks at very good 10 percent edge. Milwaukee covers an impressive 67 percent of simulations on our top computer model, winning by an average of 117-107. This is a very strong game insofar as our top two models matching up.  If you are searching for the best game, you can opt for satta king 786.

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Top NBA over teams based on margin of cover. 

Team	OU Record (overs-under)	OU margin
Oklahoma City	9-5	+10.5
Boston	9-4-1	+10.4
Sacramento	6-6-1	+6.4

Many who compare records to margin of cover believe the Kings as an OVER team are good value. The Pistons, Hawks and are tied for second top over team with aforesaid Thunder based on percentage. Detroit goes 9-5-1 but by only 2.7 points per game, Atlanta 9-5 but by only 1.1. 

Top NBA under teams based on said criterion. 

Team	OU Record (overs-under)	OU margin
LA Clippers	3-12	-8.2
Portland	4-8-2	-5.1
Milwaukee	5-8	-4.9

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

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