Free NBA pick from the top basketball capper in history, Joe Duffy.
MEMPHIS +3.5 New Orleans
Going with teams off a spread loss versus an opponent off a spread win is 629-474-19 under specific situations that apply in this game. Overreaction is a big part of betting and applies here. Our official outlaw line is just +1. The outlaw line is what the line would be without square moves. Especially so close to a pick ‘em, 2.5-point difference is big.
Top NBA teams to bet on based on sweat barometer.
Team | ATS Record | ATS margin |
Portland | 11-2 | +6.9 |
Utah | 10-5 | +6.5 |
Oklahoma City | 9-5 | +5.9 |
Cleveland | 8-5 | +5.4 |
Notes: The Bucks have the fourth best ATS record in terms of winning percentage at 9-4 but by they have a negative ATS margin at -.5. The Kings are second in said category, but by +2.2 points per game, which puts them seventh.
Top NBA teams to bet against based on sweat barometer.
Team | ATS Record | ATS margin |
Minnesota | 5-9 | -6.4 |
LA Clippers | 6-8 | -5.4 |
Golden State | 5-9 | -4.9 |
Notes: Miami has the worst record ATS at 3-11 but only -2.9 cover margin. Lakers are the second worst at 3-10 ATS, but -2.9. Some bettors interpret this as both teams being undervalued.
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often-deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
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