Are the Commanders for real? Can anyone beat Minnesota? Will the Jags ever earn a W? The best NFL handicappers know this answer.
A lot of storylines emerged from Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, and again, there were a lot of upsets.
Below, we take a peek ahead into Week 5.
Every Friday, Betonline releases look-ahead lines for the following week. The look-ahead numbers are taken down on Sunday right before the games start, and then they are re-opened Sunday evening.
If there’s significant movement (1.5 points or more) from the look-ahead spread or total that are released prior to Week 4, that will be notated under the opening line below.
NFL Week 5 spread are subject to change at Betonline from these NFL opening lines.
NFL Week 5 Opening Odds
Thursday, October 3
Bucs @ Falcons (-2.5, 42.5)
Sunday, October 6
Jets vs. Vikings (-2.5, 41.5)
Panthers @ Bears (-4.5, 43.5)
Ravens @ Bengals (+1.5, 48.5)
(Look-ahead total was 47)
Dolphins @ Patriots (PK, 36)
(Look-ahead total was 42.5)
Browns @ Commanders (-3, 44)
Colts @ Jags (-2.5, 45.5)
Bills @ Texans (+2.5, 47)
(Look-ahead spread was Bills -1)
Raiders @ Broncos (-2, 36)
Cardinals @ 49ers (-7, 48.5)
Packers @ Rams (+3, 46.5)
Giants @ Seahawks (-6, 42)
Cowboys @ Steelers (-2, 41)
(Look-ahead spread was a pick ‘em)
Monday, October 7
Saints @ Chiefs (-5.5, 43)
(Look-ahead total was 45.5)
Get the winning bets at OffshoreInsiders.com We uses NFL opening lines, lookahead lines, with other power ratings, computer sims, betting models and more.
Free winning pick from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com
OKLAHOMA STATE +5 Kansas State at MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie
Bubble burst angle that has to do with fading teams off a heartbreaking loss. We have several versions of it with similar concept, but slightly different metrics, all with uncanny results. This one is 96-29-4. It has to do with teams off their first loss of the season and it being a blowout loss.
Frankly, because it has not been as automatic in recent years, it is not a premium bet at this moment, but our free picks are either premium bets or our top games that we are considering for premium.
Joe Duffy has💥 2 Friday bets, including an insane 62-14-1 super system
Saturday🔥 FSI Total of the Year !🎯 Another named play winner among 4 Wise Guys 🤯 and 11 Majors 🎲
🏆 11 Sunday NFL: AI super systems 🤖, outsourced bets (biggest picks from MasterLockLine), contrarian intel
Opening Line: Cowboys -4, Total 44.5 Current Line:Cowboys -6, Total 45.5 Betting Percentages:
Dallas: 83% of bets, 80% of money
Over: 66% of wagers, 60% of handle
Key Systems & NFL Betting Trends:
Thursday Night Road Teams in Close Games: Teams like Dallas, playing on the road on a Thursday night when the game is not expected to be a blowout, have historically thrived, going 35-9 ATS (Against The Spread).
Home Underdogs Off a Road Win: The Giants find themselves in a favorable spot here. Home underdogs coming off a win as a road underdog, in specific situational trends like this, are 164-117-13 ATS, pointing to a potential cover by New York.
Fumbles and Third Downs: Dallas also benefits from a key stat—teams that fumbled in their previous game but are now playing an opponent with fewer than 12 third-down conversions (as the Giants have) are 562-435-20 ATS. This stat edges in Dallas’ favor.
High Fumble Totals and the Over: Since 2015, if one team had at least one fumble in its last game and the current total is 45 or higher, the game tends to go over the total, hitting at 137-99-4. This points toward a potential over play in this matchup.
NFL Picks Organic Factors to Consider:
Motivation vs. Perception: Bettors should be cautious of wagering on the “team that needs it more.” Dallas may have shown fight in their previous game, but some argue the final score made it look closer than it was.
Series Dominance: The Cowboys completely dominated the Giants in last season’s matchups, winning both games by a combined 89-17. However, division games can be notoriously unpredictable, especially with erratic quarterbacks on both sides.
Sharp Insight on 1st Quarter: One sharp bettor loves Dallas to come out strong after last week’s humiliating performance. Their first-quarter bet on Dallas -0.5 is a strategy to watch for those seeking early game value.
NFL Handicapping Trends to Watch:
Giants’ Resilience: New York has shown a knack for bouncing back after being an underdog. They are 13-0 over the past three seasons in games where they were an underdog of 4.5 points or more and were tied no more than once during the game. This suggests they perform well under pressure.
Brian Daboll’s Magic: Giants head coach Brian Daboll is 15-2 ATS when his team is not winless and coming off a game in which they were not favored by at least 4.5 points.
Giants’ Home Under Trend: Since 2020, Giants home games have trended under the total, going 24-8 in games where they aren’t seeking revenge within the same season.
Computer Models & Power Ratings:
BetQL: Cowboys 27.5, Giants 19 (Slight lean to Dallas)
Sportsline: Cowboys 25, Giants 19
Action Network: Cowboys -4.7, Total 45.1
Massey Ratings: Cowboys 24, Giants 19
Oddstrader: Cowboys 26, Giants 17 (Lean to Dallas)
BettingPros: Cowboys -6, Total 42.5 (Slight lean to the under)
Despite some variance across models, the consensus leans toward a Dallas win by roughly 5-6 points.
Player Prop Bets to Watch:
Wan’Dale Robinson Over 33.5 Receiving Yards: The Cowboys’ zone defense is likely to leave Robinson as a safety valve. He could see a boost in targets, especially if the Giants are trailing.
Rico Dowdle Over 55.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards: The Cowboys’ two-headed running attack with Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott suggests the younger, fresher Dowdle could see significant work, especially if Dallas builds a lead. The Giants have been vulnerable against the run, making this a solid play.
CeeDee Lamb Over Props: Lamb should be motivated after owning up to mistakes from the previous week. With Andru Phillips out for the Giants, Lamb finds himself in a major mismatch against Deonte Banks, setting him up for a potential breakout performance.
Conclusion: Dallas looks poised to cover, especially with systems favoring Thursday night road teams and fumble-related trends working in their favor. However, the Giants’ impressive home underdog trends and Brian Daboll’s track record suggest they could keep it closer than expected. This game may also lean toward the over, given the historical trends surrounding higher totals with fumbles in play. Prop bettors should focus on Lamb, Robinson, and Dowdle for value plays.
Expect a competitive NFC East clash with plenty of betting angles to explore!
Spread: 83% of bets and 80% of the money are on the Cowboys.
Total Points: 66% of wagers and 60% of the handle are on the OVER.
Analysis
The betting splits for this Thursday Night Football game show a significant public lean towards the Dallas Cowboys. With 83% of bets and 80% of the money backing Dallas, this presents a classic opportunity for contrarian bettors to fade the public. Historically, betting against the public in such lopsided scenarios can be profitable, especially when the line has moved from its opening position of Cowboys -4 to -6 at sportsbooks.
The total points market also shows a majority of bets on the OVER, with 66% of wagers and 60% of the handle. This indicates that the public expects a high-scoring game, which might be another angle for contrarian bettors to consider.
Joe Duffy’s Insights
Joe Duffy, a renowned sports handicapper, is kicking off his third consecutive winning week with a strong lineup of bets. His picks for Thursday Night Football include both the side and total, along with a college football side, an NFL player prop, and an MLB side. Duffy’s track record this season is impressive, with a 6-0 record on named plays in football and an 11-5 record in the NFL. His latest success includes hitting the Bills OVER as the Monday Night Football Total of the Year.
For more detailed analysis and picks, visit OffshoreInsiders.com.
Every Thursday or Friday, Betonline opens up look-ahead lines for the following week. They are taken down on Sunday right before the games start. Here are the opening lines and lookahead lines for week 4.
Then they are re-opened once the games end. OffshoreInsiders.com exploits this intel.
Sometimes there can be a massive change based on injuries or poor play.
If there’s a big line movement from the look-ahead lines, that will be notated.
As you’ll see below, Week 4 has had by far the biggest changes from the look-ahead lines.
As we dive into the latest college football betting landscape, it’s essential to understand where the public money is going, which teams are seeing sharp action, and how line moves are reflecting market sentiment. This week’s college football betting activity is a fascinating mix of heavy public support, sharp bettor interest, and significant line movement. Let’s take a closer look at the trends that we bet at MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie:
Public Betting Trends: % of Bets
📊 Ohio State, Army, Iowa The Buckeyes of Ohio State are once again a public favorite, with a large percentage of bettors throwing their support behind the perennial powerhouse. Army and Iowa round out the teams receiving the majority of public backing. This trend indicates strong confidence in these teams’ ability to cover the spread, even as oddsmakers adjust lines to account for this wave of betting activity.
Where the Big Money is: % of Money
💵 Duke, UTSA, Toledo, Ohio State While Ohio State dominates in terms of the number of bets, larger amounts of money are also coming in on the Blue Devils of Duke, UTSA, and Toledo. When big money is flowing in a particular direction, it often suggests that more experienced or high-stakes bettors are confident in their picks. Keep an eye on these teams as they could be indicators of where the sharps are leaning.
Sharp Action
🔪 Troy, Boise State The sharp bettors—those considered to have inside information or advanced analytical skills—are targeting Troy and Boise State this week. When sharp action piles up on a team, it often means there’s hidden value in the lines that the general public hasn’t spotted yet. This sharp action could lead to further line movement as sportsbooks adjust to balance their risk.
Line Movements
📈 Line moves are an essential tool in any bettor’s arsenal, as they reflect how sportsbooks are reacting to incoming bets. This week, we’ve seen significant movement in several games:
Clemson opened at -14.5 and has been bet up to -18.5, indicating strong confidence in the Tigers to cover a big spread.
FAU opened at -2 but is now sitting at +1.5, a 3.5-point swing. This kind of movement suggests heavy action on their opponent.
SMSU has seen its line move from -13 to -16.5, reflecting increased belief in a dominant performance.
Memphis saw their line shrink from -12.5 to -9.5, which may indicate concerns about their ability to cover a double-digit spread.
North Texas opened at -10 but has moved to -7, a key move around a critical number in football betting.
Baylor flipped from a 1-point underdog to a 2-point favorite, a massive swing suggesting strong public and sharp confidence in the Bears.
Oregon State opened as a 6-point favorite but now sits at -3, reflecting significant action on their opponent.
What These Trends Mean for Bettors
Understanding the dynamics between public betting, sharp action, and line movement can give you a strategic edge. Public money can inflate lines, providing value on the opposite side. Sharp action often indicates hidden value, while line movements can reveal where sportsbooks are trying to balance their books.
As the week progresses, keeping an eye on line shifts and where the big money is going will help you make more informed bets. Whether you’re riding with the public on Ohio State or following sharp action on Boise State, understanding these trends can be the difference between cashing a ticket and coming up short.
Conclusion This week’s college football betting slate offers plenty of opportunities for bettors to capitalize on public trends, sharp action, and evolving lines. Stay updated, and use these insights to make smarter wagers as the season unfolds. Keep in mind that the most successful bettors are those who combine knowledge of these factors with discipline and strategy.
Happy betting, and good luck!
Joe Duffy is the strongest gambler in history and has three Wise Guy bets leading an incredible portfolio at OffshoreInsiders.com
By using data from the betting market, including public money, sharp action, and line movements, you can better position yourself to make informed decisions when wagering on college football. Stay sharp, and watch for late line shifts as kickoff approaches!
Betting Percentages: 51% of bets, but only 36% of the money is on the Patriots, signaling possible sharp money on the Jets.
Total Betting: 70% of bets and 52% of the handle are on the Over. out the review of MyBookie
The Jets and Patriots are set to face off in a divisional matchup, with both teams trying to establish dominance in the AFC East. The line has moved in favor of the Patriots since the opening, suggesting some market sentiment shifting toward New England, despite many bettors backing the Jets.
Sharp Money on Jets?
The discrepancy between bets and money is telling. While 51% of bets are on the Patriots, only 36% of the money follows suit, hinting that sharp bettors could be backing the Jets. This is often a key signal when analyzing line movements, especially when public money favors an underdog.
Patriots End Historic Streak as Underdogs
For the first time in 24 matchups, the Patriots enter this game as underdogs. New England has been the favorite in this series for a remarkable stretch, but the tide has turned. The market now seems to undervalue the Patriots, particularly with Jerod Mayo stepping in and injecting some fresh energy.
Patriots Undervalued with Better Head Coach Than Last Season
Jerod Mayo’s impact has given the Patriots a new spark, making them potentially undervalued in this matchup. Conversely, Bill Belichick’s record without Tom Brady is less impressive, winning just 45% of games. The “honeymoon period” under Mayo could give New England a surprise edge.
Key Computer Program Predictions:
BettingPros: Jets -6.8, 38
Massey: Patriots winning 20-17
Sportsline: Jets winning 22-13; under covering 61% of the time; Jets 56% win probability
BetQL: Jets winning 25-16
StatSharp: Patriots winning 16-15
These predictions are a mixed bag, with some simulations favoring the Jets and others siding with the Patriots. The total is another factor to watch, as the under seems to have strong support across various models.
Trends to Watch:
Patriots’ Dominance in Series: New England has owned this rivalry, going 15-1 straight up (SU) and 11-5 against the spread (ATS) over the last 16 matchups. They have won 8 straight on the road against the Jets and are 5-1 ATS in the NY metro area.
Robert Saleh’s September Struggles: Saleh is 1-10 versus the first-half line in September games, being outscored 14.3-5.4 in that period. His teams have dropped 6 straight ATS in the first half in September.
Under Trends: Both teams have leaned heavily toward the under in recent games:
Patriots: 5 straight unders and 0-5 ATS following non-conference games.
Jets: Saleh’s teams are 5-0 to the under in September road games, and the Jets are 11-6 to the under in their last 17.
Fourth Quarter Unders: Both teams have been under teams in fourth-quarter scoring, with the Patriots going under in 12 of their last 17 games and the Jets in 11 of 17.
Jets Moneyline and Betting ROI
The Jets are 10-10 straight up (SU) but have been profitable, up 3.1 units with a 14% return on investment (ROI). However, they are just 1-6 ATS as favorites recently and 3-4 SU in such games.
Betting Systems Favor the Patriots
Several betting systems support taking the Patriots as underdogs:
Short-term system: Dogs of 6 or more points are 8-0 ATS this season.
Divisional System: Betting against divisional home favorites with a -4 or worse point margin from the previous season has hit at 46-18, favoring the Patriots.
Player Prop Bets to Target:
Jacoby Brissett (NE) OVER 17 completions:
Some simulators predict Brissett with up to 30 completions. He is likely to rely on short, safe passes, boosting his completion numbers. Another simulation has him at 18.9 completions, still favoring the over.
Antonio Gibson (NE) UNDER 1.5 receptions:
This is a best bet from one of the top simulators, with the expectation that Gibson won’t see many targets in the passing game.
Breece Hall (NYJ) OVER 30.5 receiving yards:
The Patriots have a strong run defense but are more vulnerable against the pass, making Hall a key safety valve for the Jets. Expect him to play a big role in the passing game.
Will McDonald (NYJ) OVER 0.5 sacks:
The Patriots are dealing with injuries on their offensive line, giving McDonald a prime opportunity to make an impact.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) OVER 64.5 receiving yards:
Aaron Rodgers has a history of favoring his top targets, and Wilson is expected to see plenty of attention. Rodgers’ comfort level with his star receiver should result in Wilson racking up yardage.
Injury Report:
Jets LB C.J. Mosley: Questionable. If Mosley can’t play, the Patriots will likely lean on their running game even more.
Patriots LB Ja’Whaun Bentley: Out for the season, which is a significant blow to New England’s defense.
This matchup between the Patriots and Jets has plenty of interesting angles. The Patriots have historically dominated this series, but the betting market and sharps seem to favor the Jets. With several betting systems supporting the underdog Patriots, this could be a game where the Pats cover the spread, even if the Jets manage to win outright. Player props offer additional value, especially on short completions and receiving yards for both teams.
Here is the Sunday NFL Tailgate Party: everything gamblers need to know to make a bloody fortune in week 2 NFL betting!
Free:
CLEVELAND +3 Jacksonville we bet at MYBookie is one of the best sportsbooks in the world! Check out the review of MyBookie
So many super sharp systems apply here. Combo of going with a team with the much worse delta points allowed and a road underdog that has not overachieved is a sensational 36-6 ATS for about a 60 percent ROI. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total.
The master angle about dogs that have not overachieved based on wins compared to how often they have been a favorite is a stunning 1229-1027-63 for +99.30 units. It hits 63.3 percent in first three weeks, so again overestimating short-term results is massive early season.
Week 2 is all about square bettors panicking and oddsmakers knowing it. A big bounce back angle about going with teams that loss as a favorite in opening week, under specific situations that apply in this game are 53-29-2 for 23.4 ROI.
Of our models, simulators, power ratings, BetQL, which tends to shade towards chalk, has this as only a one-point game and a solid bet on the Browns.
#1 rated sportsbook for live betting. 1K signup bonus
Sports betting blog with sports handicapping picks from the best sports handicappers, pregame betting information, sports handicapping articles, links to live odds, free picks, sportsbook information and more. All pro gamblers go to this betting blog before placing a bet.
