Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)
The pioneer in forensic handicapping, Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com, once described
the success of his futuristic branch of handicapping being based on the
premise, “The linesmakers know what the public is thinking and are two steps
ahead of them. The sharp player knows what the linesmakers are thinking and is
three steps ahead of them.”
That is a fair characterization of what Mike Godsey, chief
football handicapper at Joe Duffy’s GodsTips has been doing for years. When we deliberate
and finalize our football selections, the statistics for me that top the list
are yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on each side of the ball
relative to the cumulative averages of that team’s opponents to date.
Godsey, one of the first Internet handicappers, uses a few
others, but net yardage margin measured against schedule strength tops the
list. Actual straight up wins and losses have little bearing on handicapping, a
fact that so few gamblers realize. At least 9-of-10 pointspread bettors have
little conception of the difference between picking which team will win
straight up and which teams will cover. In short, that’s what separates the men
from the boys in sports betting.
Furthermore, to our original point, odds are based in
great deal do to perception and such conception is effected most by straight up
record. Godsey uses “net yardage records” and collates it against SU record to
divulge deceptive straight up records and consequently as we like to say:
overvalued and undervalued teams. He also applies the actual positive or
negative margin of net yardage much in the same way other handicappers use
point margin of victory or loss.
Wins and losses can often be affected by aberrational
events like defensive or special teams touchdowns. Godsey’s research shows “Such fortune is
tougher to duplicate game after game by the beneficiary or is much less likely
to be repeated against the victim of such fate.”
Of course as all good gamblers do, Godsey considers many
other factors. But while those who subsidize the books overassess wins, losses
and points margin, Godsey is using much more circumstantiated data. With net yardage topping his list of
statistical derivatives, it’s no wonder he’s topping the list of net winnings.
Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
which is offering a
premium version of the advanced news and notes, computer trends,
weather information and more for the entire bowl season. Much of the information is compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season
version of the OffshoreInsiders.com clipboard
is $69.