OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a Friday night pick on the New York Knicks (+3) against the LA Lakers.
Reasoning: Obviously Kobe and the Lakers are better than the Knicks but New York has shown some signs of life this season and they are catching Phil Jackson’s boys in a tough, tough spot.
Los Angeles just tangled with the aggressive Celtics last night and are on a really tough back-to-back. Mike D’Antoni’s style has always been to push the pace and that could wreak a little bit of havoc on the potentially fatigued visitors from the left coast. The size of LA with Gasol, Odom and Bynum is never easy to defend but if the Knicks can get out on the break that advantage can be somewhat nullified. Ray Felton has had a breakthrough season running up and down the court feeding Stoudemire and guys like Wilson Chandler, Landry Fields and Danillo Gallinari have been pretty solid as well.
Both Amare Stoudemire and D’Antoni know a ton about the Lakers thanks to the days in Phoenix so nothing should really come as a surprise today. The Garden crowd will be rocking and in this litmus test type of a scenario, ala the win against the Heat a few weeks ago, I can see the New Yorkers rise to the occasion and get this thing done as the Lakers run out of gas a little in the end.
Top expert pick on this game: New York from Matt Rivers
For more information: It’s going to be a monster weekend and it all begins tonight with an Ivy League lock for the ages. One 7:00 game that is going to prove to be half a dozen points off, yes half a dozen! That last line pretty much about sums it up. Get Rivers picks
Here is a Margin of Cover (MOC) breakdown. Renamed “sweat barometer” in Chad Millman of ESPN’s column, MOC is similar to scoring margin, but it is measured by how much a team covers or fails to cover the point spread.
Many sports handicappers believe MOC is invaluable in isolating under and overvalued teams.
Duquesne and Texas remain at the top while the bottom feeders are Central Florida, Michigan State, and Texas Tech.
The following teams have “sweat barometers” of at least (+4.5):
Team ATS Record Margin of Cover
Duquesne 12-3-1 6.5
Texas 15-4 6.3
George Mason 18-5 4.8
San Francisco 14-5-1 4.7
Now to the best teams to fade, at least according to the sweater.
Team ATS Record Margin of Cover
Central Florida 5-11 -5.5
Michigan State 7-15 -5.4
Texas Tech 6-13 -5.1
Ohio 6-13-1 -4.8
South Alabama 7-12 -4.5
In the NBA, just three teams have MOC of 1.9 or better: Philadelphia (2.9), Chicago (2.6), and Memphis (1.9).
Two teams are head and shoulders above the rest in the fade area: Cleveland (-4.0) and Utah (-2.4).