Senior Writer Vegas Matty previews San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat from a betting standpoint.
After suffering through a season-high five-game losing streak, the Miami Heat (45-21) appear to be back on track in hopes of finishing the season strong and securing one of the top seeds in the Eastern Conference playoff race. A rematch with the San Antonio Spurs (54-12) on Monday though will give them another measuring stick to find out how good they really are.
The Heat (-4) were crushed 125-95 at San Antonio in the midst of their skid, one of seven consecutive games in which they failed to cover the spread. They have since rebounded by winning two in a row both straight-up and against the spread, including an impressive home win against the Lakers last Thursday followed by a 33-point victory against Memphis on Saturday. Despite that win, Miami remains 15-18 against teams with a winning record this season.
New addition Mike Bibby finally came alive for the Heat in the rout of the Grizzlies, connecting on all five of his 3-point attempts en route to 17 points in 25 minutes off the bench. Bibby’s previous high with Miami was six points after he asked to be bought out from his contract with Washington. He played nearly 29 minutes in the last meeting with the Spurs on March 4, scoring four points on 2 of 6 shooting (0 for 3 on 3-pointers) to go along with five assists.
San Antonio hit a franchise-record 17 of 28 attempts from 3-point range in that game, including six from Matt Bonner. Eight Spurs scored in double figures in the blowout and six different players made a 3-pointer. Manu Ginobili scored a team-high 20 points and dished out seven assists while Tony Parker had 15 and eight in a surprise return from a calf injury. Parker was supposed to miss two to four weeks of action but came back after missing just two games.
The lone loss for San Antonio in the last six games came against the Lakers, which is also the only time the team was held under 108 points over that span. The Spurs fell at home to LA 99-83 on March 6 but have since averaged over 111 points during a three-game winning streak. However, they have covered just one of their last four games along with eight of their past 11.
The OVER has cashed in nine of San Antonio’s last 11 games, including three straight. The OVER is also 10-2 in the Heat’s last 12 games against Western Conference opponents, although the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with the Spurs, who have won the last four both SU and ATS.
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