It’s time, baby! March Madness betting picks begin this week. Who will make the Final Four? Here’s a region-by-region projection of how I think things will shake out.
EAST REGION
Favorite: Ohio State (+135)
Contenders: North Carolina, Syracuse, Kentucky
Cinderella: Washington
While the East looks like perhaps the toughest quarter in the bracket, I think picking Ohio State to get upset is overthinking things. The Buckeyes had a couple of surprising losses in the regular season, yeah, but they really found their groove down the stretch. Jared Sullinger is on fire and this team can shoot like crazy.
North Carolina is too inconsistent despite Harrison Barnes’ brilliance; Syracuse arguably lacks a true gamebreaker player to give the ball in the dying seconds; I do like Kentucky but its freshman-laden team seems like a better bet for next year. Washington might pull an upset or two.
In the end, I still think the seasoned Buckeyes take the East.
Free pick: Ohio State
SOUTHEAST REGION
Favorite: Pittsburgh +155
Contenders: Florida, Kansas State, BYU, Wisconsin, St. John’s
Cinderella: Belmont
Is the Southeast the most wide-open bracket? I’m not totally convinced. I know Pittsburgh lost two of its final four games but the Panthers came from the vicious Big East and have two outstanding players in Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker.
Florida’s spotty record against tougher competition makes me pessimistic. I prefer BYU over the second-tier contender group. Jimmer Fredette can carry that team on his own. Wisconsin’s “D” is impressive but it stumbled down the stretch and could be upset by streaking Belmont.
I like Pittsburgh’s combination of experience from a tough conference and elite players.
Free pick: Pittsburgh
SOUTHWEST REGION
Favorite: Kansas +125
Contenders: Notre Dame, Purdue, Louisville
Cinderella: USC
It’s tough to imagine anyone toppling Kansas. The Jayhawks shoot the ball with unbelievable accuracy and have a dominant one-two punch in the Morrises, Marcus and Markieff. Ben Hansbrough-led Notre Dame is viewed as a potential challenger, as is Purdue. The Boilermakers are a sneaky play because they struggled down the stretch but have two seniors built to succeed in the NCAA tournament: JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore.
USC could play Cinderella thanks to an easy opening matchup and a potential upset setup in the round of 32 against Georgetown. But this is still Kansas’ bracket to lose. The Jayhawks are possibly the safest bet to reach the Final Four of any team in the nation, largely because their region isn’t too tough.
Free pick: Kansas
WEST REGION
Favorite: Duke +135
Contenders: San Diego State +385, Texas +465, Connecticut +485
Cinderella: Bucknell
It’s tough to go wrong with picking Duke here. The Blue Devils are the defending national champs and are in peak form having just won the ACC tournament. But they arguably face a tougher road than they did last year.
San Diego State hopes it can push the Blue Devils hard but the Aztecs have never won an NCAA tournament game. That spooks me. I worry they’ll choke under the pressure of being “expected” to make a deep run for the first time ever. Kemba Walker’s dominance could make UConn a popular pick but the Huskies still lack depth after him and could be tired entering the tourney after grinding out five wins in five days in the ACC tournament.
It’s boring to pick yet another No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four, but the seedings are accurate this year. What can I tell ya? No point picking an upset just for the sake of it. Only do it if you believe in it!
Free pick: Duke
For more information: There is no question where professional gamblers will get their 2011 March Madness picks. It’s from the top sports handicappers on the OffshoreInsiders.com Network.