It may be an ugly game for non-bettors (if there is such a monster), but it’s a great opportunity for gamblers as the disappointing Atlanta Falcons take on the Carolina Panthers. Atlanta is 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, going over 4-3. Carolina is 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, splitting 3-3 on totals. Falcons WR Julio Jones has been on the injury report most of the season, but has been taken off,

Odds: Carolina is -2.5, though in some books at -115 or -120. The total is 48, though in a couple of shops barely juiced to the over as the under can be had for -105. Check out NFL live lines as the lines opened at -3 +100 and 51.5.

Public betting percentages: Bettors prefer Carolina with 63 percent of bets and 52 percent of cash on the home team. Sixty-six percent of bets and 69 percent of money are on the over.

Power ratings and computer simulations ATS and OU:: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found 55 percent of simulation favor Atlanta with 64 percent going over. Another has Atlanta covering 53.3 percent of the time with 60.3 going under. Power ratings say Carolina should be -.5 and 50.5 with a 24-23 final expected in favor of Carolina.

Against the spread trends: Atlanta 2-8 after playing Lions, 6-22 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, 6-1 road. Carolina 7-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, 3-8 favorites.

Over-under trends: Atlanta under 10-0 after playing Detroit but over 20-8 versus an opponent with a losing record. Series under 11-3.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. And here we go! 13-7 NFL. Never, ever jump off the bandwagon of the greatest capper in history. Why do you think I’ve been a full-time handicapper since 1988? Thursday, NFL total.  Get the picks now