OffshoreInsiders.com CEO Joe Duffy breaks down key intel for week 15 NFL betting.
- Road teams on grass off a game in which they were held to single-digit points and less than 125 rushing yards are 75-24-3 on grass. This favors New England over Miami
- Teams averaging less than 1.7 turnovers per game are 37-5-1 when off a game as home underdogs, facing a team averaging at least 12.75 first downs per game. This favors Detroit over Tennessee
- Atlanta Falcons all-world WR Julio Jones is questionable missing practice Thursday
- Cowboys star RB Zeke Elliot questionable-to-probable after missing practice ThursdayTea leaves say mostly a precaution, so we think he’ll play
- Panthers superstar RB Christian McCaffrey doubtfulPanthers play Saturday night
- Giants QB Daniel Jones is questionableSources say a slight lean in the probable direction
- Redskins RB Antonio Smith and QB Alex Smith are both questionable
- Bengals RB Joe Mixon remains out
Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. 16-8 NFL. Three college football winners Friday led by two Wise Guys, including Friday Night Game of the Year. Saturday, it is five college football led by three Wise Guys. Sunday, seven NFL Wise Guy bets as we build on our run. Get the picks now
Top sportsbook consensus, percentage of:
✅Bets: Cleveland (73), Houston (71)
✅Money: San Francisco (95), Tampa (89), LA Rams (86)
Biggest line moves at top books such as MyBookie NFL live lines, latest odds (lookahead opener followed by current): Tampa -1.5 to -6, Rams -13.5 to -17.5, Minnesota -6 down to -3, Seattle -3 to -5.5
Best teams to bet on based on margin of cover
| Team | ATS Record | ATS margin |
| Miami | 10-3 | +7.5 |
| Washington | 8-5 | +5 |
| Pittsburgh | 8-5 | +3.5 |
Best teams to bet against based on margin of cover
| Team | ATS Record | ATS margin |
| NY Jets | 4-9 | -16.2 |
| Dallas | 3-10 | -6 |
| LA Chargers | 6-7 | -5.2 |
| Detroit | 6-7 | -4 |
Biggest over teams
| Team | OU Record | OU margin |
| Cleveland | 8-5 | +6.7 |
| Tennessee | 9-3-1 | +6.3 |
| Las Vegas | 9-3-1 | +6.1 |
Biggest under teams
| Team | OU Record | OU margin |
| NY Giants | 3-10 | -5.3 |
| LA Rams | 4-9 | -3.8 |
| Miami | 5-8 | -3.2 |
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.