This is what you get every day. Every day on Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com Baseball is just around the corner, so lock in long-term now. I’m not promising we go 9-2 every day. But I will say this is the what the best intel in the business looks like and why I have so many clients who have been with me for decades, several going back to 1988.
Wise Guy
HOUSTON -6 Syracuse
KenPom has this an eight-point win. Houston is stronger on both sides of the ball. They are great at getting second chance points and even if Orange zone causes some bad shots, Houston will clean up the boards. But they also move the ball very well and will get nice looks. Kelvin Sampson has a week to made adjustments and beat that zone. Buddy Boeheim will have a lot of athletes in his face and will likely have the worst game of the tournament for him.
Both of our contrarian indexes, one worldwide sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has Houston as an excellent contrarian bet.
Major
ORAL ROBERTS +11 Arkansas
Accuscore has Oral covering 57.3 percent of the time. NumberFire has Bobs cashing the ticket 60.2. Oral stayed with Arkansas for most of the game when they previously met. The Backs pulled away at the end, but Oral is a much better team and clearly with confidence and knowledge they can hang for 40 minutes.
BAYLOR -7.5 Villanova
NumberFire has Baylor covering a stunning 64.2 percent. This is a huge stepup in class for Wildcats. They had great defensive numbers but Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, and MaCio Teague is a much better group of guards. Without injured point guard Collin Gillespie, Baylor will win by double-digits. Nova does not have a lot of steals and need to do that to have a chance.
Villanova-Baylor OVER 141.5
Sportsline model has this game going over 79 percent of the time. NumberFire has 60.5 percent going over. KenPom has 150 points scored.
NBA
Wise Guy
Philadelphia-LA Clippers OVER 223.5
Total compared to recent posted totals goes over 2292-1909-81 including 472-297-26 since 2015 and 43-13-1 this season.
Milwaukee-New York UNDER 222.5
Total based on recent form and current total goes under 1722-1153-76. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The turbo under version goes under at a rate of 879-587-40. When both apply, it goes under 532-313-18. Going back further, it goes under 738-469-26.
Sacramento-Cleveland UNDER 221.5
Total based on recent form and current total goes under 1722-1153-76. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The turbo under version goes under at a rate of 879-587-40. When both apply, it goes under 532-313-18. Going back further, it goes under 738-469-26.
Major
Minnesota-Houston OVER 227.5
Math total based on offensive numbers of each team is 409-279-25. The percentage is slightly higher if the total is not obnoxiously high, such as here.
San Antonio-Chicago OVER 223.5
Two cumulative under teams tend to go over at 811-589-27.
Boston-Oklahoma City UNDER 219.5
Total based on recent form and current total goes under 1722-1153-76.
BOSTON -9 Oklahoma City
Scorephone clients will recall that angle that has to do with teams off a loss under certain situations that we have won with literally since our debut in 1988. It works regular and postseason and applies here. Many other angles, some that would overlap, apply here.