Free NBA pick from Joe Duffy’s picks of OffshoreInsiders.com and it comes from the NBA. Duffy is the top sports handicapper on earth and has been since 1988 on the scorephones.
San Antonio-Memphis OVER 238
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The over version goes over at a rate of 1615-1233-124. Another based on offensive numbers of each team goes over 565-427.
Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy’s Picks. Big day fellow gamblers. Wise Guy bets (sides) in both college and NBA. Five college, two NBA in all. Simply put, I have been winning for more than 34 years publicly. If you want the best, you will hop on board at OffshoreInsiders.com
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First the best teams to bet on based on margin of cover.
| Team | ATS Record | ATS margin |
| Oklahoma City | 25-16 | 3.4 |
| New Orleans | 21-20 | 2.6 |
| Indiana | 26-16 | 2.4 |
Notes: OKC and Indiana tied for best spread record based on winning percentage.
Now the best teams to fade based on ATS margin.
| Team | ATS Record | ATS margin |
| Golden State | 18-22-1 | -3.6 |
| Milwaukee | 21-17 | -2.6 |
| Dallas | 14-26-2 | -2.5 |
| Atlanta | 16-23-2 | -2.5 |
| Miami | 16-24-2 | -2 |
Notes: that is not a typo. Milwaukee is four games above .500 ATS but has the second worst sweat barometer in the NBA. Dallas has the worst spread record based on winning percentage followed by Atlanta, Miami, and Houston.
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often-deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
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