Stanley Cup betting rages on and the Penguins are in trouble. After two games of bad bounces, screen shots, heckling and brawls, the Penguins left Detroit down 2-0 in the series. Wasn’t this supposed to be the epic rematch every puck betting fan wanted? Let’s break down Game 3 and see if the Pens have a chance for redemption tonight.

Penguins vs Red Wings odds: Game 3 tonight, 8:00 p.m. at Mellon Arena
NHL betting lines: Penguins -145, Red Wings +125

Looking at Games 1 and 2, the Penguins didn’t actually play horrible hockey; they outshot Detroit in both games and—excluding the last minute mini-brawl in Game 2 — the Pens took just one minor penalty in each game. The losses were thus more about what Detroit did well than what Pittsburgh did well. Can the Pens neutralize the Wings’ brilliant game plan?

After a fluky bankshot goal in game 1, the Wings seemed set to shoot from everywhere in Game 2; they terrorized Marc-Andre Fleury by (a) shooting from strange angles and (b) always having traffic in front of Fleury to set up screenshots. They even used the Penguin defensemen as screens when their own guys weren’t parked in front, as Justin Abdelkader did on his “knucklepuck” goal. While it’s hard to ask a defenseman to fully “get out of the way” and let his opponent take shots on his goalie, the Pens’ blueliners can at least help their cause tonight by clearing Wings forwards from the crease. Pittsburgh‘s D-men are pretty slow, but they’re also big, so they need to capitalize on their muscle more. The roar of a home crowd should help fire them up tonight, so the Pens should be much more physical. They’ll just have to hope that doesn’t get them in penalty trouble, as Detroit‘s mighty power play can kill many a sportsbook dream.

The Wings have also done an amazing job keeping Sidney Crosby (0 points) and Evgeni Malkin (2 points) off the scoresheet in the Stanley Cup Final odds so far. Henrik Zetterberg in particular has done a great job shadowing Sid the Kid and won’t let up. Crosby‘s only response must be to draw on his own talent and play harder. He’s too good not to show the Wings something in this series, so he should bounce back tonight. Don’t be surprised if he has a multi-point game.

So far in the series, the Red Wings are winning the goaltending battle; Conn Smythe candidate Chris Osgood has been rock-solid while Marc-Andre Fleury got spooked by fluky shots and may have let the Detroit crowd get to him. At home, he must take advantage of the supportive crowd and get his confidence back. He’s more resilient than he gets credit for and has a fantastic game for every dud he posts, so the NHL betting fans should expect him to show up much more focused. The Pens will prevail tonight.

NHL betting pick: Penguins -145