It’s tempting to say that Chris Carpenter’s sample size is too small and Johan Santana is the pre-eminent ace in baseball today, but the times are a’ changin‘. Santana’s velocity is down, his walk rate is climbing, and he continues to allow homers at an alarming rate. Anyone making baseball betting picks has to wonder if his surgically repaired knee is barking at him. Meanwhile, Chris Carpenter continues to dominate this season. While his road ERA isn’t as tiny as his home ERA—it’s “only” 2.15 — he clearly flourishes no matter where he pitches these days. Let’s see—guy with a 0.40 day-game ERA, pitching a matinee, against a team minus three of its top four hitters, against which Joel Pineiro tossed a complete-game shutout on Tuesday? Seems like a no-brainer to pick the Cards.

Daily sports pick: Cardinals -110

Thursday June 25, 7:08 p.m. ET
Phillies @ Rays
Antonio Bastardo (2-2, 5.21) vs Andy Sonnanstine (5-7, 6.60)
MLB betting lines: Phillies +120, Rays -140

All the Andy Sonnanstine detractors—myself included—feel vindicated this season seeing him exposed for the mediocre pitcher he really is. He simply can’t keep the ball in the park, allowing one or more long balls in eight straight starts for a total of 14 during that time. I can’t see how the NL’s best power-hitting team will remedy his problem. Meanwhile, Phillies starter Antonio Bastardo has crashed back to Earth after a hot start, but good sportsbook software will tell you he’s still spotless on the road (2-0, 2.45 ERA). I think he’ll handle the Rays—and you know he’ll have the run support he needs.