NFL Picks and Predictions: Packers-Brown Pick and Preseason QB Rotations

The Cleveland Browns take on the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night. The pick on the game is to go over the total of 35.

Though we’ve written many articles documenting how “quarterback battles” are overrated from a standpoint of preseason NFL handicapping, it’s because gamblers use inductive not deductive reasoning.

Generally quarterback competitions are a result of a team having nobody step up and look like an NFL starter, but the Browns battle is among two guys: Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, who can play in this league.

Head coach Eric Mangini said there will be no rotating in the regular season, so a clear-cut No. 1 job is up for grabs.

Yes, we are concerned about the Browns lack of receiving depth, but Green Bay is unsettled on defense.

The Packers new 3-4 scheme under first-year defensive coordinator Dom Capers will debut and it is a raw work in progress. Only about “30 percent” of the scheme will be shown tonight.

Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews and Jeremy Thompson are doubtful. In fact, the Pack will be minus several first and second team defenders. Their linebacking corps is especially thin.

This is the perfect chance for Cleveland to open it up and with the low total, the over screams at us.

More notes for bettors Saturday:

·        Detroit super rookie QB Matt Stafford will enter at some point in the second quarter. Dante Culpepper will start and Drew Stanton will finish, will all three QBs getting about the same amount of playing time.

·        It looks like four Falcons quarterbacks will play about a quarter reach: Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, D.J. Shockley, and rookie John Parker Wilson. The battle for No. 2 QB behind Ryan is wide open.

·        Titans starters will play one more series than last week and and backup QB Vince Young will make his first appearance at home since his infamous meltdown last year that cost him his starting job. He will play about a half.

·        For Tampa, Luke McCown will start at QB, followed by Byron Leftwich. Each will play 12-15 snaps.

·        The Houston QB rotation will be starter Matt Schaub in the first quarter, Dan Orlovsky in the second and third and Rex Grossman in the fourth. In fact, that is the exact rotation of all the units. Starters first, second string second and third quarters, and the third string will play the final frame.

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