The World Series odds of big, powerful New York and Philadelphia meeting are looking mighty good right now. That’s fitting, as the odds of a good battle between big, tough heavyweights at UFC 104 are good too. In the second biggest fight of the night, heavyweight contender Cain Velasquez hopes to continue his rise up the ranks against Ben Rothwell. Let’s break down the fight and make a pick.

THE FAVORITE…

Cain Velasquez
Record: 6-0
Notable wins: Cheick Kongo
Online betting odds for UFC 104: -300

It seems no one can agree on Cain Velasquez’s future. Some feel he’s inexperienced and overhyped, the symbol of the UFC’s desperate attempt to build up the heavyweight division. Others see Velasquez as the real deal, a superb athlete and an eventual serious challenger to Brock Lesnar. I tend to view Velasquez as the latter. He’s a fantastic wrestler thanks to his background at Arizona State. As he showed against Cheick Kongo at UFC 99, Velasquez is a master of using body leverage to ragdoll men much bigger than him. His striking isn’t particularly powerful but it’s decent, as he has kickboxing experience. He’s a next-generation mixed martial artist, bringing the type of intensity to his fights usually seen in NFL betting.

THE UNDEROG…

Ben Rothwell
Record: 30-6
Notable wins: Krzysztof Soszynski, Roy Nelson
Online betting odds for UFC 104: +240

Big Ben Rothwell may be making his UFC debut, but he’s certainly not an inexperienced fighter. A grizzled vet desipte being just a year older than Velasquez, Rothwell has tangled with top heavyweights like Andrei Arlovski and Tim Sylvia—both former UFC champs. Rothwell is a well-rounded fighter. He has decent wrestling ability, especially because of his 6’5″, 265-pound-plus frame; he’s not a phenomenal boxer but he can drop guys with his big meat hooks; he also has solid submission ability on the ground, as he’s tapped out 11 opponents.

Pick: Velasquez -300. Rothwell is by no means an easy opponent because of his versatility and size. However, Cain Velasquez, as “overhyped” as he may be, is not the type of fighter to underestimate a Rothwell. He’s a tireless worker who prepares meticulously for opponents and is never satisfied with his performance. He’ll be ready for Rothwell and use his superior speed and athleticism to win—just like the Phillies will do against the Yankees in World Series betting.