A college football matchup like Ohio and Troy in the New Orleans Bowl isn’t exactly a dream come true but this is the beauty of NCAA football betting. It can turn a game like this one into tons of fun. Let’s break down the relevant info.
Ohio Bobcats (8-4) vs Troy Trojans (7-5)
Saturday, December 18, 9:00 p.m. ET
Favorite: Troy -1.5
Over/Under: 58
Ohio was a fairly safe and easy team for betting sharps to track this year. It beat the spread in seven of its eight victories and failed to cover in three of its four losses, meaning its ATS record of 8-4 matched its straight-up record. In other words, when the Bobcats won, they won decisively.
Ohio enters the New Orleans Bowl as an underdog but that won’t necessarily scare bettors away. The Bobcats are 7-1 ATS over their last eight games as a dog, 5-1 ATS over their last six against teams with winning records and 7-2 ATS over their last nine games overall. Ohio’s betting trends overwhelming favor the OVER. Seven of its last eight games as an underdog have gone over the total, as have five of its last six non-conference games.
Troy is favored to win the New Orleans Bowl at pretty much every sportsbook but it hasn’t fared too well against the spread this season, going just 4-8. The Trojans are 2-7 ATS over their last nine games as a favorite and 1-4-1 ATS over their last six non-conference games. Troy averaged 32.9 points per game this season so it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that trends also point toward the OVER. Its last four bowl games have gone over the total; the over is also 21-7 in Troy’s last 28 non-conference games.
This matchup is about defense versus offense. Ohio is offensively challenged; it ranked 94th in the country with just 329.3 total yards per game and fields the nation’s 105th-ranked passing attack, though it ran the ball pretty well (170.9 yards per game). Defense is much more Ohio’s forte. It fielded the country’s 21st-best overall unit and its 98.9 rushing yards allowed per game is the nation’s sixth-lowest mark in 2010.
On the flipside, Troy’s 12th-ranked aerial attack, led by Corey Robinson and his 24 touchdown passes, boosted them up to the 24th overall offensive rank. So how does a team that scores just less than 33 points per game only go 7-5? Well, the Trojans allow 31 points per contest this season and have the nation’s 94th-best defense at 419.2 total yards allowed per game.
For more information: There are Golden Rules of bowl betting to follow to ensure that the best bowl picks against the spread are yours this football postseason.