All posts by JoeDuffy.net Administrator

Sportsdata As Featured in the Playbook Annual Football Preseason Magazine

Quite a few people have asked me if my systems and angles used at GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com comes from the SportsData.  Apparently the two-page ad in Mark Lawrence’s Playbook football annual has sparked some interest. Regular clients have successfully bet my angles going back to the scorephone days.

Yes, we did very much see the article—which came across as an advertorial in ESPN the Magazine via ESPN Insider.

A few of the reasons my interest was piqued, then once I scratched the surface became disinterested:

So how do the “owners” of this alleged powerful database perform?

According to Power of 620 sports services behind every selection, the MasterLockLine, Tom Stryker, Right Angle Sports, and Al McMordie each have one Top 25 finish in any sport for a full season since 2006. Only RAS has a Top 10: 2008 in college football and 2009 in college basketball.

Dr. Bob Stohl was a major force in the early part of the century and in the 1990s, but his following among sportsbook whales has all but disappeared. A consistent top performer for a decade, his star is no longer shining.

In addition, most of that statistics quoted fall well short of uniformly most powerful unbiased (UMPU), statistical significance: tools used by statisticians to measure the reliability of data. They also fall short of the simple test we apply: return on investment (ROI).

If at one unit per bet, minus 10 percent juice, the angle falls below 80 units, it must have a z-score of 4.5 or above for us to consider worthwhile.  Those who utilize the so-called Buckeye Database rarely, if ever, quote angles of that magnitude.

Conversely public databases such as SportsDataBases (not to be confused with the aforesaid SportsData), do have systems that meet the criterion of effect-size statistics.

They don’t cost $15,000 to get in and certainly don’t take days to learn. They are quite user friendly and we’ve unearthed angles much better than any I’ve seen quoted. Still if and when it goes public, we will make final judgment.

So far, it sounds like anyone who would pay 15 dimes for such a database may also believe they have a Nigerian aunt who just left them $1 million USD.

For sports picks that utilize statistically significant angles coupled with other factors including the revolutionary Performance Gap Analysis, check out the world class handicappers at OffshoreInsiders.com

2011 NFL Preseason Point Spreads and Week 1 NFLX Odds

It what professional gamblers are agreeing with be the best NFLX betting picks season ever for sharp players, the NFL preseason odds are up for the 2011 exhibition football.

The odds are from Bet Online

ET Rot. Teams Spread Total Points
07:30 PM 251 Baltimore Ravens +3½ -110 35 -110
252 Philadelphia Eagles -3½ -110 35 -110
07:30 PM 253 Jacksonville Jaguars +4 -110 36½ -110
254 New England Patriots -4 -110 36½ -110
08:00 PM 255 Seattle Seahawks +4½ -110 37 -110
256 San Diego Chargers -4½ -110 37 -110
08:30 PM 257 Denver Broncos +3 +100 37 -110
258 Dallas Cowboys -3 -120 37 -110
10:00 PM 259 Arizona Cardinals +3½ -110 34½ -110
260 Oakland Raiders -3½ -110 34½ -110
07:30 PM 261 Cincinnati Bengals +5 -110 36½ -110
262 Detroit Lions -5 -110 36½ -110
07:30 PM 263 Miami Dolphins +3 -115 33½ -110
264 Atlanta Falcons -3 -105 33½ -110
07:30 PM 265 Pittsburgh Steelers -1½ -110 33 -110
266 Washington Redskins +1½ -110 33 -110
08:00 PM 267 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 -110 34 -110
268 Kansas City Chiefs -2 -110 34 -110
08:00 PM 269 San Francisco 49ers +3 -105 37 -110
270 New Orleans Saints -3 -115 37 -110
07:30 PM 271 Green Bay Packers pk -110 36½ -110
272 Cleveland Browns pk -110 36½ -110
08:00 PM 273 New York Giants +1½ -110 33 -110
274 Carolina Panthers -1½ -110 33 -110
08:00 PM 275 Buffalo Bills +3 +100 34½ -110
276 Chicago Bears -3 -120 34½ -110
08:00 PM 277 Indianapolis Colts +6½ -110 35 -110
278 St. Louis Rams -6½ -110 35 -110
08:00 PM 279 Minnesota Vikings +3 -110 34 -110
280 Tennessee Titans -3 -110 34 -110
08:00 PM 281 New York Jets +2½ -110 35 -110
282 Houston Texans -2½ -110 35 -110

2011 NCAA Football Lines Week 1

The 2011 College football opening week lines have been posted at Bet Online. It all begins September 1 and continues through Labor Day weekend. The top college football betting services have already begun the research.  Here are the current odds.

07:00 PM 139 North Texas +12 -110
140 FIU -12 -110
08:00 PM 131 UNLV +31½ -110
132 Wisconsin -31½ -110
08:00 PM 133 Mississipi State -24½ -110
134 Memphis +24½ -110
08:00 PM 135 Wake Forest +6½ -110
136 Syracuse -6½ -110
09:00 PM 137 Bowling Green +8½ -110
138 Idaho -8½ -110
09:15 PM 141 Kentucky -18 -110
142 Western Kentucky +18 -110
08:00 PM 145 TCU -9 -110
146 Baylor +9 -110
12:00 PM 147 Northwestern +6½ -110
148 Boston College -6½ -110
12:00 PM 149 Utah State +27½ -110
150 Auburn -27½ -110
12:00 PM 151 Akron +34 -110
152 Ohio State -34 -110
12:00 PM 153 Miami Ohio +17½ -110
154 Missouri -17½ -110
12:00 PM 157 UCLA +4 -110
158 Houston -4 -110
12:00 PM 195 Middle Tennessee +15 -110
196 Purdue -15 -110
12:20 PM 155 Kent State +33 -110
156 Alabama -33 -110
03:30 PM 161 Minnesota +18 -110
162 USC -18 -110
03:30 PM 163 South Florida +8½ -110
164 Notre Dame -8½ -110
03:30 PM 197 Arkansas State +14½ -110
198 Illinois -14½ -110
03:30 PM 199 Louisiana Monroe +28 -110
200 Florida State -28 -110
03:30 PM 201 Troy +12½ -110
202 Clemson -12½ -110
04:45 PM 165 Brigham Young -1 -110
166 Mississippi +1 -110
05:00 PM 167 San Jose State +28 -110
168 Stanford -28 -110
06:00 PM 169 Colorado State -3½ -110
170 New Mexico +3½ -110
06:00 PM 171 Buffalo +26 -110
172 Pittsburgh -26 -110
07:00 PM 173 South Carolina -15 -110
174 East Carolina +15 -110
07:00 PM 175 Fresno State +6 -110
176 California -6 -110
07:00 PM 177 Army +13½ -110
178 Northen Illinois -13½ -110
07:00 PM 179 Rice +22 -110
180 Texas -22 -110
07:00 PM 181 Indiana -6 -110
182 Ball State +6 -110
07:00 PM 203 Florida Atlantic +30½ -110
204 Florida -30½ -110
07:00 PM 205 Louisiana Lafayette +34 -110
206 Oklahoma State -34 -110
08:00 PM 183 Tulsa +23 -110
184 Oklahoma -23 -110
08:00 PM 185 Ohio -10½ -110
186 New Mexico State +10½ -110
08:00 PM 187 Boise State -2½ -110
188 Georgia +2½ -110
08:00 PM 189 Oregon +3 -110
190 LSU -3 -110
10:00 PM 191 Louisiana Tech +11 -110
192 Southern Miss -11 -110
10:15 PM 193 Colorado +7½ -110
194 Hawaii -7½ -110
03:30 PM 207 Marshall +19 -110
208 West Virginia -19 -110
07:30 PM 209 Southern Methodist +14 -110
210 Texas A&M -14 -110
08:00 PM 211 Miami Florida -4 -110
212 Maryland +4 -110

The OffshoreInsiders.com Network includes Texas Holdem tips, the biggest sports service plays.

NFL Preseason QB Rotations, Famed NFLX Primer Has New Home

The 2011 NFL preseason odds (NFLX) kick off Thursday, August 11 with opening games through Monday, August 15.

The OffshoreInsiders.com Network has announced that the popular NFL “preseason primer” will be available exclusively on the recently added portion of ScoresOddsPicks.com: their sports handicapping news section.

The primer consists of key player and quarterback rotations, injuries, football weather reports, and various motivation and intangible news and notes. In addition, any Vegas line moves of significance are cited.

An example of the quality information from previous years can be found at JoeDuffy.net among many other sites.

The primer has been syndicated on many websites throughout the decade including SportsNetwork.com, Examiner.com, BleacherReport.com, among many other high traffic websites.

However, the roots trace back to the pre-Internet days of the telephone scorephones. “Based on client feedback and monitoring traffic statistics, I can definitively say that going back to our scorephone days, the NFL preseason primer is one of the most important features that is loyally followed by professional gamblers,” boasts Joe Duffy, CEO of the OffshoreInsiders.com Network.

ScoresOddsPicks.com is a sports handicapping website with free Vegas sports odds, betting databases, Las Vegas trend reports among the features. This summer, the news section was added with free picks from OffshoreInsiders.com handicappers, game previews, and sports wagering news.

Sportsbooks Post Odds on Regular Season Win Totals

Sportsbooks have posted the over/under for NFL regular season wins odds. According to the The Canadian Crew betting syndicate, “Arizona over 6.5 wins is the best future’s bet,” having improved themselves dramatically including at the most important position QB. The Cardinals added Kevin Kolb from the Philadelphia Eagles.

GREEN BAY PACKERS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2023 Over 11.5 Wins  +105
2024 Under 11.5 Wins  -123
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2039 Over 10 Wins  -101
2040 Under 10 Wins  -115
ARIZONA CARDINALS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2001 Over 6.5 Wins  -126
2002 Under 6.5 Wins  +108
ATLANTA FALCONS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2003 Over 10.5 Wins  +127
2004 Under 10.5 Wins  -149
BALTIMORE RAVENS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2005 Over 11 Wins  +132
2006 Under 11 Wins  -155
BUFFALO BILLS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2007 Over 5 Wins  -143
2008 Under 5 Wins  +122
CAROLINA PANTHERS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2009 Over 4.5 Wins  -111
2010 Under 4.5 Wins  -105
CHICAGO BEARS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2011 Over 9 Wins  +149
2012 Under 9 Wins  -175
CINCINNATI BENGALS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2013 Over 6.5 Wins  +167
2014 Under 6.5 Wins  -198
CLEVELAND BROWNS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2015 Over 6.5 Wins  -109
2016 Under 6.5 Wins  -107
DALLAS COWBOYS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2017 Over 9 Wins  +105
2018 Under 9 Wins  -123
DENVER BRONCOS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2019 Over 6 Wins  +137
2020 Under 6 Wins  -161
DETROIT LIONS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2021 Over 7.5 Wins  -114
2022 Under 7.5 Wins  -102
HOUSTON TEXANS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2025 Over 8 Wins  -136
2026 Under 8 Wins  +116
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2027 Over 10 Wins  +122
2028 Under 10 Wins  -143
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2029 Over 6 Wins  -121
2030 Under 6 Wins  +104
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2031 Over 8 Wins  +123
2032 Under 8 Wins  -144
MIAMI DOLPHINS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2033 Over 8 Wins  +137
2034 Under 8 Wins  -161
MINNESOTA VIKINGS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2035 Over 7 Wins  -118
2036 Under 7 Wins  +101
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2037 Over 11.5 Wins  -107
2038 Under 11.5 Wins  -109
NEW YORK GIANTS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2041 Over 9.5 Wins  +121
2042 Under 9.5 Wins  -142
NEW YORK JETS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2043 Over 10 Wins  -111
2044 Under 10 Wins  -105
OAKLAND RAIDERS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2045 Over 7 Wins  +107
2046 Under 7 Wins  -125
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES REGULAR SEASON WINS
2047 Over 10.5 Wins  -121
2048 Under 10.5 Wins  +104
PITTSBURGH STEELERS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2049 Over 11 Wins  +128
2050 Under 11 Wins  -150
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2051 Over 10 Wins  +105
2052 Under 10 Wins  -123
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2053 Over 8 Wins  +121
2054 Under 8 Wins  -142
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2055 Over 6.5 Wins  +145
2056 Under 6.5 Wins  -170
ST. LOUIS RAMS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2057 Over 7.5 Wins  +124
2058 Under 7.5 Wins  -145
TAMPA BAY BUCANEERS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2059 Over 8.5 Wins  +140
2060 Under 8.5 Wins  -165
TENNESSEE TITANS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2061 Over 6.5 Wins  -135
2062 Under 6.5 Wins  +116
WASHINGTON REDSKINS REGULAR SEASON WINS
2063 Over 6.5 Wins  +154
2064 Under 6.5 Wins  -182

NFL Pointspreads Week 1 2011 Posted: Saints-Packers Open It Up

The top NFL betting services have the Week 1 NFL line for 2011. The lockout is over and the top sports handicappers have commenced the research. Here are the sportsbooks betting odds for regular season Week 1 NFL spreads. The New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers open it up.

NFL FOOTBALL – THU 9/8
GAME HANDICAP TOTAL POINTS
Thu 9/8 451 New Orleans Saints +4.5 -105 OVER 46 -104
05:30 PM 452 Green Bay Packers -4.5 -105 UNDER 46 -106
NFL FOOTBALL – SUN 9/11
GAME HANDICAP TOTAL POINTS
Sun 9/11 453 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 -103 OVER 36.5 -105
10:00 AM 454 Baltimore Ravens -2.5 -107 UNDER 36.5 -105
Sun 9/11 455 Detroit Lions +3 +107 OVER 40 +100
10:00 AM 456 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 -118 UNDER 40 -110
Sun 9/11 457 Atlanta Falcons -1 -111 OVER 40.5 -105
10:00 AM 458 Chicago Bears +1 +101 UNDER 40.5 -105
Sun 9/11 459 Buffalo Bills +6.5 -105 OVER 41 -110
10:00 AM 460 Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 -105 UNDER 41 +100
Sun 9/11 461 Indianapolis Colts +2.5 -104 OVER 46.5 -101
10:00 AM 462 Houston Texans -2.5 -106 UNDER 46.5 -109
Sun 9/11 463 Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 -108 OVER 44 +100
10:00 AM 464 St. Louis Rams +4.5 -102 UNDER 44 -110
Sun 9/11 465 Cincinnati Bengals +4 -103 OVER 36 -110
10:00 AM 466 Cleveland Browns -4 -107 UNDER 36 +100
Sun 9/11 467 Tennessee Titans +3 -115 OVER 39 -102
10:00 AM 468 Jacksonville Jaguars -3 +104 UNDER 39 -108
Sun 9/11 469 New York Giants -3 -114 OVER 37.5 -110
01:15 PM 470 Washington Redskins +3 +103 UNDER 37.5 +100
Sun 9/11 471 Carolina Panthers +4.5 -102 OVER 37 +100
01:15 PM 472 Arizona Cardinals -4.5 -108 UNDER 37 -110
Sun 9/11 473 Seattle Seahawks +5.5 -105 OVER 39.5 -104
01:15 PM 474 San Francisco 49ers -5.5 -105 UNDER 39.5 -106
Sun 9/11 475 Minnesota Vikings +9 -113 OVER 41 +101
01:15 PM 476 San Diego Chargers -9 +102 UNDER 41 -111
Sun 9/11 477 Dallas Cowboys +4 -104 OVER 41 -104
05:25 PM 478 New York Jets -4 -106 UNDER 41 -106
NFL FOOTBALL – MON 9/12
GAME HANDICAP TOTAL POINTS
Mon 9/12 479 New England Patriots -4 -111 OVER 45 -102
04:00 PM 480 Miami Dolphins +4 +101 UNDER 45 -108
Mon 9/12 481 Oakland Raiders +1 -111 OVER 41 +101
07:15 PM 482 Denver Broncos -1 +101 UNDER 41 -111

2011 NFL Preseason Lines Provide Unprecedented Opportunity for Pro Gamblers

The 2011-12 NFL betting season, starting with the preseason, will have the largest gap ever between sharp and square player. The NFL lockout provides once-in-a-lifetime opportunities for the pro bettor.

In our videos, podcasts, articles, and most importantly premium sports picks analysis, we’ve quoted several Golden Rules of gambling.  If the day ever comes to ranking them, probably at the top of the list is that oddsmakers and square players despise uncertainty.

Pro bettors and handicappers monetize capriciousness. Simply put, whatever is bad for the oddsmaker is good for the erudite investor.

The equivocation that will be caused by as the media has said, “five months of offseason condensed into a few weeks” is tormenting the oddsmaker.

In the interval between when sportsbooks first post odds and the time wagers must be placed, the intel will be more fluid than ever. This will be infinitely truer in the preseason, but will certainly continue well into the regular season.

For the most part the same angles whales search for in a normal preseason will still apply: quarterback and key player rotations, motivational variances such as which coaches will work on more creative schemes and which will be more vanilla—just to name the most common key indicators.

But the lockout means 2011 will be those intangibles on steroids.  Rosters will fluctuate more than in any other preseason. Some teams will play their frontline players much longer than traditional exhibition games past.

There will certainly be squads that have play calling in regular season mode, while others will stick to the mundane schemes.

For sure, there will be a lot more “box of chocolate” type performances: teams looking spectacular one week, then horrific the next and visa versa.

It would be very surprising if teams off preseason lackluster performances don’t have a larger sense of urgency in their next game than in a “normal” season.

Though it’s an educated belief the teams with the largest turnover in key personnel and coaching staffs are most likely to be pressing into the regular season mode, such instincts must be substantiated by factual evidence in our scouring of teams own press notes, hometown newspaper citations, or other esteemed sources.

There are few urban legends as outlandish as the dunderheads who spew the folklore that preseason football is a guessing game. The NFL lockout dynamics create ancillary prospects.

NFL Early Bird Betting Package Up on Heels of Lockout Ending

The NFL lockout has finally ended.  To celebrate,  OffshoreInsiders.com has released an Early Bird special by their anchor sports service, Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.

Duffy believes the NFL lockout provides a rare once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for bettors. “One of our Golden Rules of handicapping is that the oddsmakers despise uncertainty.”

He continues, “whatever is bad for the oddsmaker is great for the sharp player.”  He and all the OffshoreInsiders.com sports services will be scouring the online newspapers and respected websites for player rotations, motivational factors, and more.

Duffy says the more established teams such as the New England Patriots will likely not be able to match the sense of urgency as teams rebuilding such as the Seattle Seahawks.  Regardless, “the key metrics will be very fluid on a game-by-game basis making the 2011 NFL preseason the biggest gap in history between the sharp and square player.”

The prosperity will continue into the regular season because, according to Duffy, “the public will overreact to early season anomalies more than ever” forcing the sportsbooks to inflate NFL betting lines.

Sports bettors get every GodsTips football pick in the Early Bird Special: NFL and NCAA football, preseason, regular, and postseason through BCS Championship and Super Bowl. This is an Early Bird price limited time offer for just $1,499 covering the full season.

The package includes all football picks. An “all sports” package will be available at the beginning of NFLX.

Duffy is a long-time veteran in sports betting picks. Duffy got his start in the industry as a scorephone announcer for Dial Sports, where he learned the industry under Mickey Charles, a pioneer handicapping writer and broadcaster.

He then moved to the free scorephones, then known as Sportsline, where he studied under NFL legends turned handicappers Hank Stram and Roy Scott. Stram is an NFL Hall-of-Fame coach and Scott was inducted into the Green Bay Packers Hall-of-Fame.

Duffy established himself has a scorephone handicapping legend on the Cadillac Club 900-number back in the late 1980s.

His picks are now available exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com, where he is known as the “NFL Specialist.”

The package is up right now available for purchase at OffshoreInsiders.com

2011 Week 1 Premier League Odds

As American sports bettors hope for an end to the NFL lockout and the posting of NFL preseason point spreads, many of the top sportsbooks around the world have posted Week 1 Premier League odds:

Here is the completed list:

Sat 8/13 2001 Blackburn Rovers -0.5 +101 +101 OVER 2.5 -105
06:59 AM 2002 Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.5 -109 +306 UNDER 2.5 -105
2003 Draw +256
Sat 8/13 2004 Fulham pk and -0.5 -107 +126 OVER 2 and 2.5 -104
06:59 AM 2005 Aston Villa pk and +0.5 -101 +258 UNDER 2 and 2.5 -106
2006 Draw +234
Sat 8/13 2007 Liverpool -1 and -1.5 -102 -235 OVER 2.5 -102
06:59 AM 2008 Sunderland +1 and +1.5 -106 +818 UNDER 2.5 -108
2009 Draw +378
Sat 8/13 2010 Manchester City -1.5 -128 -355 OVER 2.5 and 3 -103
06:59 AM 2011 Swansea City +1.5 +118 +1238 UNDER 2.5 and 3 -107
2012 Draw +488
Sat 8/13 2013 Newcastle United +0.5 +102 +358 OVER 2.5 and 3 +103
06:59 AM 2014 Arsenal -0.5 -110 -110 UNDER 2.5 and 3 -114
2015 Draw +258
Sat 8/13 2016 Queens Park Rangers pk and -0.5 +112 +149 OVER 2 and 2.5 -114
06:59 AM 2017 Bolton Wanderers pk and +0.5 -121 +211 UNDER 2 and 2.5 +103
2018 Draw +236
Sat 8/13 2019 Stoke City +0.5 and +1 +104 +482 OVER 2.5 +112
06:59 AM 2020 Chelsea -0.5 and -1 -113 -144 UNDER 2.5 -124
2021 Draw +287
Sat 8/13 2022 Tottenham Hotspur -0.5 -117 -117 OVER 2.5 +109
06:59 AM 2023 Everton +0.5 +108 +385 UNDER 2.5 -120
2024 Draw +264
Sat 8/13 2025 West Bromwich +1 -106 +559 OVER 2.5 and 3 +103
06:59 AM 2026 Manchester United -1 -102 -173 UNDER 2.5 and 3 -114
2027 Draw +326
Sat 8/13 2028 Wigan Athletic -0.5 +105 +105 OVER 2.5 -105
06:59 AM 2029 Norwich City +0.5 -114 +320 UNDER 2.5 -105
2030 Draw +243