OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a winning pick on Penn State (+10) to Ohio State.

Why not back the Nittany Lions today? Of course they are outmanned in a major way but Talor Battle is a star and Penn State has been playing some great defense of late. Ed DeChellis knows that his team can’t go up and down with big bad Ohio State if they are to have a chance but that was the case against both Wisconsin and Michigan State and they passed those tests with flying colors.

Jared Sullinger is an amazing freshman and the Buckeyes are ridiculously loaded with Lighty, Diebler, Lauderdale, Craft and others forming what probably is the best team in the nation. In this spot Thad Matta’s team is certainly Goliath but it’s not like the Bucks have been all that of late at all.

Yesterday State let Michigan back in it late for the backdoor cover and the day before they were outplayed by Northwestern in a game that they probably deserved to lose before getting bailed out in overtime in the end. If OSU comes to play all guns ablaze then they are clearly the far superior team and could win going away. But Penn State’s defense has been extremely stifling of late as they allowed only 33 points against Bo Ryan’s Badgers and yesterday gave up a meager 48 to Tom Izzo’s Spartans. The Nittany’s have now won four straight games and five of their last six and let’s not forget how they only lost by three in the middle of the season on the road at Ohio State.

It’s asking a lot for Penn State to compete but they are peaking at the exact right time and are a legitimate good ballclub right now. If that’s not good enough to stay within single digits then so be it but my money’s on the surging Nittany Lions plus the handsome number.

The pick: Penn State

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Free pick for Saturday comes from OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers. It is on the Denver Nuggets (-9) to Detroit.

Is this post Carmelo Anthony Denver team really almost double digits better talent-wise than Detroit? No they’re not but we have seen it over and over and over again where a team is on a back-to-back and on that second night has to go into the rarified air of the Pepsi Center and things just unravel. It was this exact spot a few weeks back with the Hawks and I will give Atlanta credit as they competed for the first three quarters of the game but then the legs became extremely heavy and in the end it turned out to be an easy Nuggets cover.

The Pistons are a team that I don’t mind backing when getting a lot of points because they do have some experienced players with an upside in Stuckey, Villaneuva, Gordon, Hamilton and Prince. There are certain situations where they are a far better team than the poor 23-43 record would indicate. But this is most definitely not one of those spots.

The Pistons just fell in Oklahoma City last night and will come limping into the Mile High City. Carmelo may be gone but amazingly George Karl has not only kept the ship afloat but once can even make a case that the team has overall been better without the newest Knickerbocker. Denver has won four of their last five games and seven of nine. They have played literally one game in the past week and that was on Wednesday night when they smacked around the surging Suns on the road in Phoenix.

I expect Denver to be the far fresher team on the floor and in the end they will take care of business once again.

Top expert pick on this game: Denver Nuggets from Matt Rivers.

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OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a Friday NBA lock is on the Boston Celtics (-2) at Philadelphia.

Things have been a ton better of late for the 76ers as Doug Collins has done a great job after the terrible 3-13 start to the season but if I can get the Celtics at such a cheap price like this than I’m all for it. Yes that last loss to the Clippers on Wednesday night was shocking and yes Glen Davis is banged up which doesn’t help the lack of bigs now on this Boston team after trading away Kendrick Perkins but come on with this price.

When push comes to shove whether in Philadelphia, in Boston or on the moon the C’s are just the flat out better team. If anything, I like the fact that Doc Rivers’ squad was just embarrassed as home by the Clippers because that could fuel their fire tonight and provide some motivation. Plus it’s not like the Celtics didn’t win their previous five and eight of 9 so this team is just fine. The big four is still around and playing pretty well with Pierce, Rondo, Garnett and Allen and no matter how improved Andre Iguodala and the gang from the City of Brotherly Love is they are still not as good as the men in green.

Philly is pretty good right now, I admit that, but their stock is also fairly overvalued unlike Boston who despite the far better record at 46-16 seems to be undervalued due to that one bad last game and possibly because they are somewhat lacking in height.

Nobody is more impressed with Iguodala, Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young, Elton Brand and the 6ers than I am but this is too good of a value on the Celtics to pass up, period.

Top expert pick on this game: Matt Rivers with Boston.

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Things have really started to heat up after another solid winning Thursday. It’s now a 6-2 overall run and 1.5 million* of profit over the past five days. I’m not going to say that either Arkansas or Syracuse covered by a ton but in the end they both cashed and without a doubt more winning today. A trio of fire hot locks including the 500,000* between Miami and North Carolina. A pair of bonus 200,000* with Colorado-Kansas and St. Joseph’s-Duquesne. I feel great and you will as well shortly! Rivers historic winner up

Senior Writer Vegas Matty previews Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers.

The Philadelphia 76ers (33-31) have been playing as well as any team in the Eastern Conference over the last couple months, but the Boston Celtics (46-16) have still owned them since Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce have been playing together.  The 76ers will try to beat that trio at home for the first time in eight meetings when they square off against the Celtics (-2) in an Atlantic Division clash on Friday.

Despite the team’s hot play recently, Philadelphia still sits 14 games behind Boston in the Atlantic.  If the playoffs started today, the 76ers would be matched up with Chicago, the only team with a better record than them in the last seven weeks.  They are 16-6 over that span and 14-8 against the spread after losing at home to Oklahoma City on Tuesday in overtime, 110-105.

The Celtics are also coming off a home loss on Tuesday against the Los Angeles Clippers, who built a 60-42 halftime lead and then held on for a 108-103 victory.  Allen led Boston with a team-high 23 points while new addition Nenad Krstic scored a season-high 20 points and grabbed nine rebounds.  Krstic was dealt to the team along with Jeff Green for starting center Kendrick Perkins.

With the loss, the Celtics saw their lead for the top seed in the East drop to 1.5 games over the Bulls and 3.5 over Miami after the Heat beat the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday, ending their five-game losing streak.  They are 12-2 vs. Philly since Garnett and Allen joined Pierce in Beantown, although the Sixers have gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

The two games between the teams this season were decided by a combined five points, including a 102-101 road win for Boston back on December 9.  Allen scored a game-high 23 points, making 7 of his 10 shots from the field and all seven of his free-throw attempts.  Philadelphia had seven players score in double figures and was led by Jodie Meeks with 19 points while Thaddeus Young and Louis Williams each added 16.

The rematch a couple weeks later was a much different game as the Celtics won a defensive battle at home, 84-80.  The 76ers actually led 44-38 at halftime but saw Allen again step up with a game-high 22 points for Boston.  The OVER is 8-2 in Philly’s last 10 games overall and 5-1 in the past six for the Celtics.  The OVER is also 5-3-1 in the last nine games between the teams.

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Things have really started to heat up after another solid winning Thursday. It’s now a 6-2 overall run and 1.5 million* of profit over the past five days. I’m not going to say that either Arkansas or Syracuse covered by a ton but in the end they both cashed and without a doubt more winning today. A trio of fire hot locks including the 500,000* between Miami and North Carolina. A pair of bonus 200,000* with Colorado-Kansas and St. Joseph’s-Duquesne. I feel great and you will as well shortly. Rivers lock is up

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has an NBA odds pick on the Los Angeles Lakers (-2) at Miami.

Reasoning: I’m sure everybody and their brother is going to be on the red hot Lakers against the ice cold Heat but I just don’t see that being the losing side and I’ll therefore play the role of what I expect to be the square side here.

The game may be down in South Beach but the way things have gone recently so what? This Miami team has obviously been horrific over the past few weeks and that has included the recent four game home losing streak. I do believe that Erik Spoelstra will turn this thing around as there is just too much talent for that to not happen with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade but I’m not so sure that this is the night for it to happen.

We all know how Miami doesn’t have an inside game and Los Angeles may be the worst matchup for them with their bigs. Gasol, Odom and Bynum are a huge frontcourt and an absolute mismatch for whomever the Heat throw out there. Yes Miami did win the first meeting a few months back at Staples and I really have no definitive answer as to how they did that but I can say that they were clearly a better team back then compared to what they have become right now.

The Heat are lacking a ton of confidence and cannot make any shots late. Now they face a team that hasn’t lost since the All-Star break, literally, led by the superstar of all superstars in Kobe Bryant.

Lebron and company will right the ship at some point. They just have to as the talent level is too high. But with Chris Bosh becoming more lost by the day I will clearly give the edge to the champions who are playing much much better right now.

Tonight could potentially be rock bottom for the Heat if they haven’t hit that already as LeBron has said.

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OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Writer Vegas Matty previews Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat.

The Miami Heat (43-21) made a serious statement the last time they faced the Los Angeles Lakers (46-19) on Christmas Day.  On Thursday before another national television audience, the struggling Heat will simply be trying to end their own five-game losing streak along with an eight-game winning streak for the defending NBA champion Lakers (-2).

Miami dominated Los Angeles 96-80 at the Staples Center in the last meeting behind a triple double from LeBron James, who totaled 27 points, 11 rebound and 10 assists.  Chris Bosh also had an impressive game against LA’s big men with 24 points and a game-high 13 rebounds while Dwyane Wade chipped in with 18 points and six assists.

The Heat were just starting to jell at that point in the midst of winning 21 times in 22 games, and they should be making their push for the top seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race right now.  Instead, chemistry issues have plagued the supposed dream team of James, Wade and Bosh lately and led to their longest skid of the season.  They have failed to cover the spread in their last seven games.

Questions regarding who should take the last shot of the game have made it clear that James and Wade are more the same type of player than they are complimentary pieces to a championship puzzle while Bosh is just trying to fit into the offense somehow.  Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra has quite the challenge ahead of him as his team tries to finish strong, starting with this key game against the Lakers.

Los Angeles head coach Phil Jackson is enjoying his final ride on the bench and see his team peaking at the perfect time.  The Lakers have played with a vengeance since they dropped three games in a row prior to the All-Star break, including bad losses at Charlotte and Cleveland by a combined 25 points.

Kobe Bryant has scored 20 points or more in seven of the eight games during the winning streak, with LA going 7-1 against the spread in those games.  Bryant tweaked his ankle in a 101-87 win at Atlanta on Tuesday but still scored 26 points as his team failed to give up more than 87 points for the fifth straight games.  In fact, the Lakers have allowed just one opponent to total more than 95 points since the All-Star break, limiting the rest to an average of 85 points.  The UNDER has cashed in four of their last five games.

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With the Big Ten playing a more prominent role in college basketball betting this season than in other recent years, it feels like this football-crazy conference has turned over a new leaf. All eyes will be on No. 1 Ohio State. Can it avenge defeats to Wisconsin and Purdue? Let’s handicap the Big Ten Tournament.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (29-2)

Sportsbook odds: -150

The Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in all of college basketball, so it’s no surprise to see them listed as the betting favorite to win the Big Ten tourney. Some people will dispute the rank and call for Kansas to get the top spot. After all, two other contenders in this tourney, Purdue and Wisconsin, beat Ohio State. But the Buckeyes look like the real deal. They responded well after their second defeat, winning four straight times by 19 or more points. They’re also a national top-20 team in both scoring offense and defense.

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (25-6)

Sportsbook odds: +300

Remember Robbie Hummel? Apparently Purdue doesn’t. It’s not often that a team overcomes a season-ending injury to one of its starters only to play mostly dominant basketball but Purdue has done just that this season. The Boilermakers enter the tourney having won seven of eight. JaJuan Johnson is having a dream season, averaging 20.6 points per game. Purdue is a legitimate threat to the Buckeyes, having beaten them by 13 points on February 20.

WISCONSIN BADGERS (23-7)

Sportsbook odds: +350

As “that other team that beat Ohio State,” Wisconsin falls right behind Purdue. The Badgers are an intriguing sleeper. Not only do they have a one-two punch as good as any Big Ten team’s in Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor, they’re also one of the country’s most outstanding defensive teams. Keep a close eye on the Badgers.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (19-12)

Sportsbook odds: +800

Michigan is the quintessential mid-range contender in this tournament. The Wolverines are kinda, sorta good everywhere. They don’t score a ton but they play pretty good defense, they have some pretty good scorers in Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway Jr., they enter the tournament pretty hot with six wins in eight games…you get the picture. Michigan could reach, say, the semifinals but this is a low-upside pick.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (17-13)

Sportsbook odds: +800

Picking Michigan State to win the Big Ten Tournament is like picking Tiger Woods to win a golf tournament: don’t let the name fool you. I know Tom Izzo is still the coach and I know Kalin Lucas is good but this team just doesn’t have what it was supposed to have this year. The Spartans haven’t reached the Big Ten title game since 2000.

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (19-2)

Sportsbook odds: +1000

Fun fact: Illinois has the best all-time record of any team in the Big Ten Tournament at 23-11. But don’t let that fool you into picking the Fighting Illini to win it this year. These guys are solid and a good shooting team at .469 for the season but their 9-9 record in conference play this season tells you all you need to know.

THE PICK

I’m so tempted to pick Wisconsin. Love the defense, love their scoring tandem, a win over Ohio State already…but I can’t veer off the path. Ohio State made a statement when it crushed Wisconsin 93-65 in the rematch a few days ago. The Buckeyes are ready to win their fourth Big Ten tourney.

Today’s free pick: Ohio State-150

Senior Writer Vegas Matty previews Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets from the standpoint of the sports gambler.

One of the best scores and odds games has the Chicago Bulls (44-18) bring a three-game winning streak to Charlotte on Wednesday in hopes of evening the season series with the Bobcats (26-37) at two games apiece.  Charlotte won the first two meetings with Chicago by a combined six points before the Bulls pulled off a 106-94 victory in the last game between the teams on February 15.

The Bobcats have since traded Gerald Wallace to Portland and lost leading scorer Stephen Jackson to a hamstring injury, winning just once in six games.  They are currently riding a five-game losing streak, going 1-4 against the spread after falling at home 92-87 to the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday.  A lack of scoring has obviously been the major concern, as the team is averaging only 81.2 points per game during the skid with the UNDER cashing each time.

That pattern is not likely to change here against a Chicago team that has tightened the screws defensively since losing 118-113 at Toronto in the first game after the All-Star break.  The Bulls have not allowed an opponent to score 90 points in the last seven games, giving up an average of 81.1 points during that stretch en route to a 6-1 record with the UNDER going 7-0.

While Chicago has risen to the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race thanks in part to the struggles of the Miami Heat, the team still needs to prove itself by consistently winning on the road.  The Bulls were finally able to get over the .500 mark away from home on their most recent road trip, going 4-1 both straight-up and ATS.  They need just one more road victory to surpass last year’s total.

Chicago point guard Derrick Rose continues to play at an MVP level despite a hiccup here or there, scoring 21 points or more in four of the last five games.  However, Rose struggled in an 83-80 loss at Atlanta on March 2, which was the lone setback during the road trip.  He made just 5 of 21 shots from the field against the Hawks, totaling 12 points, 12 assists and six turnovers.  Rose owns career averages of 19.9 points and 6.6 assists in 10 career games against Charlotte.

The Bobcats are 2-4 ATS in the last six meetings with the Bulls even though they won three of those games.  The UNDER was 3-1 in the previous four games between them before Chicago’s most recent win in the series.

Top expert pick on today’s card: March is about new parameters in handicapping that don’t apply during the regular season. The Canadian Crew knows the unique factors that apply. There is a such a mismatch tonight on national TV that the Crew has to make it the NCAAB Best Bet of the Week.

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OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a free pick for Wednesday on Oklahoma City (+1) at Philadelphia.

Reasoning: Let me first start by saying that you should play this game early because the only line movement you will see will be on the Thunder and against you. Why? Because the line that I am seeing is soft with Philadelphia on the back-to-back with travel.

Doug Collins has done a great job with the 76ers reviving the team and the franchise as a whole after some rough last few years. I’m not saying this Philly team has gotten over the hump at all but after the terrible 3-13 start they have turned things around and are playing some great ball of late. For them to currently be 33-30 shows me a team that is making great strides. But with that said they are in an extremely difficult spot tonight playing for the never easy second straight night after the victory in Indiana yesterday and are also hitting the court for a third game in four nights. To ask the 76ers to keep pace in this spot just does not seem all that probable against what is the superior team in Oklahoma City and the fresher team in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder are rapidly growing into an elite squad. Getting Kendrick Perkins was a nice little piece in the middle to go along with a pair of superstars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. These guys almost knocked off the Lakers last season in the playoffs and are 39-23 this season.

The 6ers are at home which is never a bad thing but they also are not going to have enough legs to be able to slow down Westbrook and Durant. Andre Iguodala has played a ton better of late and things have been going Philadelphia’s way but tonight is just too tall of a task and one that they are not going to succeed in.

The City of Brotherly Love will be friendly to the visiting Thunder as they take care of business going away.

Top expert pick on this game: Oklahoma City

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