Expanding on the New Year’s and BCS Bowls podcast, it’s the Capitol One Bowl preview from the Citrus Bowl in Orlando between Michigan State vs. Alabama.

Michigan State is an impressive 11-1 straight up, 7-5 against the spread, while Alabama is 9-3 in the newspapers, but 7-5 in the sportsbooks.

The Spartans get 4.9 yards per rush to foes that are permitting an average of 4.4, 8.3 yards per pass to 7.5 and 6.4 yards per play to 5.8.

They allow just 3.6 yards per rush to teams that usually get 4.3, 6.5 passing yards per attempt to 7.3 and 5.0 yards per play to 5.6.

Alabama gets 5.0 yards per rush to teams that normally allow 4.3, 9.2 passing yards per attempt to 7.4 and 6.9 yards per play to 5.7.

The Crimson Tide defense allows 3.6 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4.3, 6.1 passing yards per attempt to 7.5 and 4.8 yards per play to 5.7.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Alabama is 3-8 as an underdog. The Crimson Tide is 5-0 outside the conference, but 2-9 off straight up loss.

Over/under trends: The Spartans have gone over 48-19 as underdogs. Alabama has gone over 6-1 outside conference.

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It’s Penn State vs. Florida in the Raymond James Bowl. The Gators are a seven-point favorite with a total of 48. Here is the official betting preview.

Penn State is 7-5 straight up and 5-7 to the number. Florida is 7-5 straight up and 6-6 against the spread.

The Nittany Lions get 4.2 yards per rush to foes that are permitting an average of 4.0 and 7.2 passing yards per attempt to teams that normally allow 6.9, and 5.6 yards per play to 5.4.

The allow 4.5 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.3, 7.0 yards per pass to 7.7, and 5.6 yards per play to 5.8.

Gators get 4.3 yards per rush to defenses that permit 4.1, but a rotten 6.5 yards per pass to squads usually permitting 7.1 and just 5.3 yards per play to 5.5.

Florida has been about defense this year allowing 3.5 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.2, just 6.3 yards per pass to 7.4, and 4.7 yards per play to 5.6.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): The Nittany Lions are 1-5 as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Gators are 6-1 neutral sites as favorites, 22-10 overall as chalks, and 20-7 outside the conference. However, they are 0-5 to teams with a winning record.

Over/under trends: Penn State has gone under seven straight outside conference. Florida has gone over 7-2 following a SU loss of more than 20 points.

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Northwestern vs. Texas Tech kick off the 2011 football betting season in the Dallas Football Classic played at the Cotton Bowl. Texas Tech is laying nine points with a total of 60.5. In addition to the 2011 bowl betting podcast, OffshoreInsiders.com has the official betting preview.

Northwestern is 7-5 straight up, but just 3-9 against the spread, going over 7-of-11 this season. Texas Tech is 7-5 outright, but 5-6 where it really counts.

The Wildcats are much more successful passing than running. They get just 3.5 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.1, 8.2 passing yards per attempt to defenses that allow an average of 7.5 and 5.5 yards per play to 5.6.

Northwestern allows 5.1 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.2, but they are better at stopping the pass allowing 6.7 yards per pass to teams that usually get 7.0. Overall they permit 5.9 yards per play to 5.5.

Texas Tech gets 4.1 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.3, but just 6.7 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.6 yards per play to 5.6.

Defensively, they are permitting 4.1 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4,1, 7.5 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.9 yards per play to 5.6.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Northwestern has dropped 7-of-8 overall. But they are 21-6 as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 17-5 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. On the other hand, they are 1-8 following a SU loss of more than 20 points and 0-6 after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Texas Tech is 1-6 off spread win.

Over/under trends: Wildcats have gone over 6-1 as an underdog, but under 10-2 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

Texas Tech has gone under 6-0 off spread win.

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One more stop on the bowl betting circuit before we start talking BCS. Next up, it’s the Cotton Bowl, which features the very solid LSU versus Texas A&M.

(11) LSU Tigers (10-2) vs (18) Texas A&M Aggies (9-3)

Friday, January 7, 2011

Latest odds: LSU -1

Over/Under: 49

The Louisiana State Tigers were national title contenders earlier this season, opening the year 7-0, but most sports betting sharps saw the cracks. The Tigers scraped by too many so-so opponents, going only 3-4 against the spread during their undefeated start, and their absolutely atrocious passing game had to catch up to them sooner or later.

Though LSU is 2-5 ATS over its last seven against teams with winning records and 1-4 ATS over its last five games as a favorite, the Tigers have fared well at the sportsbook in their recent bowl games. They’re 4-1 ATS over their last five bowl affairs.

Not surprisingly for an elite defensive school like LSU, eight of the Tigers’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total.

Texas A&M closed the 2010 season with a phenomenal run both straight-up and against the NCAA football betting spread, going 6-0 over their final six games in both regards and winning tough matchups against Oklahoma and Nebraska along the way.

Strangely enough, while their recent trends are red-hot, their bowl game trends are absolutely ice cold. They’re 0-4 ATS over their last four bowl games, 0-5-1 ATS over their last six against the SEC and 0-7 ATS over their last seven neutral-site games. Four of Texas A&M’s last five bowl games have fallen UNDER the over/under.

LSU has the No. 9 defense in the nation and the ninth-ranked pass defense, allowing just 165.9 yards per game. That’s a highly impressive stat for an SEC team; it largely reflects the outstanding play of cornerback Patrick Peterson, who projects as a high first-round NFL pick.

Offensively, the Tigers did just enough to get by this year. Their running game was solid but their passing game was a mess, ranking 107^th in the country with a paltry 155.4 yards per game.

Texas A&M’s strength is its passing game, which is 18^th in the nation. Jerrod Johnson started the year as the Aggies’ go-to quarterback but the job belongs to Ryan Tannehill now. The two signal callers have combined for 25 touchdown passes this season.

Defensively, the Aggies are 22^nd against the run and surrender only 20.3 points per game but they struggle mightily against the pass, ranking 95^th with 240.5 yards allowed per contest.

It’s Kansas State vs. Syracuse in the Pinstripes Bowl. The game is a pick at most sportsbooks with a total of 48, though it’s 47.5 in some shops. Kansas State is 7-5 straight up and 6-6 against the spread, going over 8-3. Syracuse is 7-5 straight up and against the spread, going under 7-3 their last 10.

Kansas State averages 4.8 yards per rush teams that normally allow 4.3 and 7.7 yards per pass to 7.1, 5.8 yards per play to 5.6. Defensively, the Wildcats allow 5.9 yards per rush to teams that usually get 4.5, but 6.7 yards per pass to 6.9, 6.3 yards per play to 5.5.

Syracuse gets 3.9 yards per rush to defenses that allow an average of 4.1, 6.2 passing yards per attempt to 7.1 and 5.0 yards per play to 5.5.

On defense, the Orange allow 3.6 yards per rush to teams that usually get 4.0, 5.5 passing yards per attempt to 6.3 and 4.4 yards per play to 5.0.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Kansas State is 3-11 after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, 0-4 in bowls.

The Orangemen are 10-3 after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): The Wildcats have gone over 16-5 after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Syracuse under 8-0 to teams with a winning record, under 20-7 on grass.

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The ESPN college football schedule and bowl picks against the spread kicks off Thursday with Army vs. SMU in the Armed Forces Bowl. Southern Methodist is -7 -115 at most sportsbooks with a total of 52.

Army enters 6-6 straight up, 5-6 against the spread having gone over 8-3 this season. SMU is 7-6 outright and 6-7 to the number.

The Black Knights are perceived to be the much better running team but that’s for those who confuse the accuracy of ratings vs. rankings. In reality, Army gets 4.5 yards per rush to defenses that permit 4.5, 7.5 yards per pass to 7.2, but just 5.0 yards per play to teams that normally allow 5.6, a number that includes special teams.

On defense, Army allows 4.3 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4.2, a generous 7.8 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.7 yards per play to 5.4.

Southern Methodist rushes for 4.8 yards per carry to defenses that allow an average of 4.4, 7.4 passing yards per attempt to 7.3, getting a nice margin of 6.3 yards per play against foes that are permitting an average of just 5.8.

Their numbers are quite accomplished on defense permitting 3.7 yards per rush versus teams normally getting 4.4, 6.8 yards per pass to 7.3 and a stingy 5.1 yards per pass against teams that usually get 5.8.

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Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Army is 6-1 as road underdogs, yet 7-18  as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 2-8 to teams with a winning record. SMU is 4-13 as favorites, 0-6 after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Over/under trends: Army has gone under 7-0 following a double-digit loss at home. SMU has gone over 10-2 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

It’s not the national championship. It’s not even a BCS bowl. The Alabama Crimson Tide therefore have to be disappointed with playing in the Capital One Bowl. But they have a quality opponent in Michigan State and a chance to make a statement, so sports betting fans could get treated to a fun game.

(15) Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) vs (7) Michigan State Spartans (11-1)

Saturday, January 1, 1:00 p.m. ET

The favorite: Alabama -10

Over/Under: 52

Alabama won’t be satisfied with its 9-3 record but such is life in the SEC. The defending national champs’ three losses came to three other excellent teams: South Carolina, LSU and Auburn. The first two came on the road and the last loss to Auburn came in a game Alabama led 27-0 before Heisman Trophy winner Cameron Newton took over.

Alabama found itself overvalued against the college football betting spread in big games this year; the Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS over their last five games against teams with winning records. However, they’re 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference matchups, so the previous stat once again reflects the hardship of playing in the SEC. Alabama is 1-4 ATS over its last five games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

The Crimson Tide tend to crank up the offense in bowl games; their last four bowl affairs have gone OVER the  total. The over is also 6-1-1 in ’Bama’s last eight matchups against non-conference opponents.

Though Michigan State is 5-1 against the spread over its last six against teams with winning records, it’s just 3-8 ATS over its last 11 contests as an underdog. The Spartans are 1-5 ATS over their last six as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Five of the Spartans’ last seven games have gone UNDER the betting total but six of their last seven non-conference affairs have gone over the total. The overall trends for the Capital One bowl seem to be pointing toward offense over defense.

Statistically, Alabama still flirted with elite status this season. It has the country’s No. 6 overall defense, ranking 11^th against the pass, 23^rd against the run and fifth with just 14.1 points allowed per game. Mark Ingram’s followup to his Heisman Trophy-winning 2009 season was marred by injuries and inconsistency so Alabama’s rushing offense slipped to 36^th. Greg McElroy had a productive season as a passer, however, and the Crimson Tide averaged 260.3 yards through the air per game (28^th).

Michigan State matches up as a well-rounded but underwhelming opponent, ranking 38^th in total offense (408.5 yard per game) and 26^th in defense (329.8 yards). Thanks to quarterback Kirk Cousins and running back Edwin Baker, both of whom were effective this year, the Spartans are 43^rd in passing and 41^st in rushing.

Michigan’s greatest strength is run defense. The Spartans allow 114 yards per game this year, good for 20^th in the nation.

The Chick-fil-A Bowl may not be a BCS matchup but it’s still a pretty serious bowl game for college football betting sharps to ponder. We can’t go wrong with two nationally ranked teams.

(19) South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4) vs (23) Florida State Seminoles (9-4)

Friday, December 31^st, 7:30 p.m. ET

The favorite: South Carolina -3

Over/Under: 54

South Carolina was hot and cold from a betting perspective for much of this season, largely because it didn’t have an identity. Was Steve Spurrier’s team a top contender or just a high-end gatekeeper for the real powerhouses? It turned out to be more of the latter. South Carolina beat Alabama but lost to Arkansas and Auburn.

Down the stretch, however, South Carolina found its groove. Before getting dominated in the SEC title game, the Gamecocks won three straight games and beat three straight sportsbook spreads. Overall, South Carolina is 7-6 ATS this season. Nine of its 13 games trended OVER the total, which isn’t surprising given all the talented SEC offenses they faced. Their games totalled 54.9 points on average.

Florida State seemed destined for a BCS Bowl early this season when it started 6-1 and went 5-2 ATS over that span. However, disappointing losses to N.C. State and North Carolina derailed the Seminoles’ hopes. They went 4-3 over their final seven games and 2-5 ATS during that stretch. FSU is 7-6 ATS on the year and the UNDER is 8-5 for their games.

Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks aren’t dominant in any one offensive area but pretty solid everywhere. They average 32 points a game; they have an efficient quarterback in Stephen Garcia leading the nation’s No. 47 passing attack; and they have a touchdown machine in Marcus Lattimore pacing the 55^th-ranked rushing offense.

Defensively, South Carolina is Jekyll and Hyde. The Gamecocks are an outstanding seventh against the run but 107^th against the pass. That’s what happens when you share a conference with Cameron Newton and Ryan Mallett.

Florida State’s offense is an underwhelming 63^rd overall, perhaps because it battled injuries all season. Christian Ponder played through an elbow injury and Jermaine Thomas, part of the Seminoles’ multi-pronged rushing attack, is battling a knee injury.

Florida State’s 65^th-ranked pass defense could be in tough against Garcia but Lattimore and the Gamecocks will have to work hard to penetrate Florida State’s 30^th-ranked run defense (126.8 yards/game) and 24^th-ranked scoring defense (19.8 points/game).

Illinois vs. Baylor in the Texas Bowl at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas. Illinois is a one-point sportsbook favorite with a total of 64. The total keeps going up and Baylor opened as the chalk.

Now here is a sports betting picks preview. Illinois is 6-6 straight up, but 8-4 to the number, going over 7-4. Baylor is 7-5 straight up, 5-7 to the number, also going over 7-of-11 for the year.

The Illini get 5.1 yards per rush to defenses that permit 4.3, but a measly 6.6 passing yards per attempt to 7.2 for 5.6 yards per play to squads usually permitting 5.6.

On defense they permit 3.9 yards per rush squads that normally accumulate 4.4, 6.9 passing yards per attempt to 7.2 and 5.3 yards per play to 5.7, all above average defensive numbers.

Baylor is sensational on offense getting 5.5 yards per rush against teams that normally allow 4.3, 7.8 yards per pass to 6.8 and a very impressive 6.6 yards per play to 5.5.

Defense, though they are subpar. They allow 4.2 yards per rush versus squads that earn 4.0, 7.2 passing yards per attempt to 6.8 and 5.7 yards per play to 5.3.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Illinois is 8-2 after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game but 3-13 in their last 16 non-conference games.

The Bears are 9-1 after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game, but 1-5 as underdogs.

Over/under trends: Illinois has gone over 7-0 off straight up loss, but under 14-4 on grass. Baylor has gone over 7-1 overall.

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It’s East Carolina vs. Maryland in the Eagle Bank Bowl. The scores and odds Maryland is a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 68.

ECU enters with a 6-6 straight up and against the spread mark, going over 9-of-12. Maryland is 8-4 outright and against the spread, going over 6-4 this season.

The Pirates average 4.5 yards per rush to teams that normally allow 4.0 and 6.7 passing yards per attempt teams that normally allow 7.3, and 5.9 yards per play to 5.6.

They have been very benevolent on the defensive side permitting 5.1 yards per rush versus teams normally getting 4.4, 8.1 passing yards per attempt to 7.5 and 6.4 yards per play to 5.7.

Maryland gets 3.8 yards per rush versus teams that normally allow 4.1, 7.1 passing yards per attempt to 6.7 and 5.4 yards per play to 5.3.

The Terrapins allow a stingy 3.5 yards per rush squads that normally accumulate 4.1, 6.1 passing yards per attempt to 6.5 and 4.7 yards per pass to 5.2.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Maryland is 12-2 after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game, yet 1-9 after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

ECU is 2-9 outside the conference.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): East Carolina has gone over 8-2 after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game and over 7-2 outside the conference.

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