All posts by JoeDuffy.net Administrator

Cliff Lee’s Signing Updates World Series Odds

Cliff Lee’s singing with the Philadelphia Phillies has made his new/old team prohibitive 7/2  baseball betting favorites to win the World Series.

The New York Yankees, left at the alter by Cliff Lee, are 6/1, a notch below their divisional rivals, the Boston Red Sox at 5/1.

Lee’s other brokenhearted would-be brides the Texas Rangers are tied for the No. 4 favorites at 20/1 with the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Rays.  Sportsbook odds from Bodog.

Speaking of odds, tonight’s top NBA picks include a big winner from Matt Rivers for Tuesday is on the Charlotte Bobcats -5 Toronto.

Reasoning: Wow was that an unbelievably pathetic last game at home against Boston. The Bobbies were held to an insanely low 62 points in that 31-point defeat. I am not in the slightest going to try and defend that because you just can’t. But I can tell you that Michael Jordan was on the bench and the owner is not going to stand for that garbage. He will have his players focused today against what is a bad and inferior Toronto squad that should not win many games this entire season anywhere, no less on the road.

Charlotte boasts some talent, they really do. Gerald Wallace, Stephen Jackson and DJ Augustin form a quality trio and the 8-15 record that Charlotte currently has is not truly indicative of what the team is. These guys have a solid upside and a lot of potential but have just gotten off to a poor start. The last game very well may have been rock bottom and after that debacle there is only one way to go.

The Raptors are 9-15 and probably are a 9-15 type of a team. I really do like Andrea Bargnani as that guy is starting to become a total star but the cupboard is fairly bare after losing Chris Bosh to the Heat. Toronto is a porous 3-9 outside of Canada and should be getting more tonight against a team that is much better than them.

I expect Charlotte to come out with some passion and energy after that last beat down against the Celtics and against a bad team on their home floor should result in an easy victory. This is a cheap bargain basement type of a number and one that can’t fully be passed up.

The pick: Charlotte.

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College Football Bowl Betting Previews 2010-11, Part 2

Now to part two of 2010-11 bowl betting breakdowns to help bettors avoid the pitfalls and common blunders (video) of betting in the bowls.

We present the statistical matchups of the Las Vegas Bowl, Poinsettia Bowl, Hawaii Bowl, and Little Caesars Pizza Bowl.

Starting out with the Las Vegas Bowl, it’s Utah vs. Boise State.

Commencing with the yards per carry data, the higher rated offense is Boise State by .6.

On the same side of the line of scrimmage, yards per reception gives the upper hand to the Broncos by 1.7.

Sharp football bettors exploit yards per point. The more productive unit with the ball in their hands is Boise State by .3.

In stopping rushing attacks, the higher ranked defense according to rushing yards per attempt is Boise State, but by just .1.

The stingier defense in terms of yards per pass catch would be the Broncos again by 2.3.

The more disruptive defense making use of yards per point enlightenment is that of Boise by three.

On the better side of turnover ratio is yet again the Broncos by 11.

Now it’s to Navy vs. San Diego in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Contrasting the yards per rush figures on offense, the facts give the edge to the Naval Academy by .9.

Insofar as passing yards per completion on offense, the computations favors Navy by 1.8.

So many professional bettors make the most of yards per point. Offensively the more productive numbers are owned by San Diego by .6.

Defensively the more tightfisted unit against the run according to yards per rush is San Diego by .8.

Yards per reception digits favor Navy by 1.8.

Calculations on the yards per point math gives the upper hand to Navy by 1.2

Now to net turnover margin, the better squad has been Navy by 17.

Hawaii vs. Tulsa in is the Honolulu Bowl.

In comparing yards per rush on offense, the healthier records go to Tulsa by .2.

Insofar as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the advantage is for the Rainbows by .8.

According to yards per point, the not wasteful offense is Hawaii by .3.

Defensively the more miserly team based on yards per rush is Hawaii by .5.

The more exceptional defense based on the stipulation of passing yards per completion is Hawaii by 2.0.

The yards per point statistic used by the best sports handicappers says the better defense is Hawaii by .4.

Hawaii has the turnover edge by three.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

Now to Florida International vs. Toledo in the Little Caesars Bowl.

Florida International vs. Toledo play in one of the best games of the week from a sports betting standpoint. It’s the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl.

FIU has the more ample numbers in terms of yards per rush on offense by a margin of .6.

Toledo produces more advantageous computations in terms of passing yards per completion by .2.

The yards per point measurement is one of the most effective against Vegas scores and odds. The more suitable numbers are the property of Toledo by .9.

Now to the defensive side of the ball utilizing the same tallies.

Toledo reigns supreme in stopping the run allowing .5.

Toledo has the better decimals on defense in the passing yards per completion realm by 2.0.

A major facet of Performance Gap Analysis is yards per point. The more rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball in that grouping is Florida International by .3.

Toledo has a turnover margin advantage of 13.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

NBA Picks: Hornets vs. Heat

NBA betting has been a windfall for sharp bettors and that continues Monday. Of course the nation’s best handicappers have never been hotter.

Matt Rivers of OffshoreInsiders.com pick Monday is on the Hornets +11.5 against Miami.

Going against Miami in recent days has equaled suicide as LeBron, D Wade and Bosh have started to really gel and form the team that everybody thought they would be. The Heat are great and have now won eight in a row, covering their last seven. Therefore to say anything negative about Erik Spoelstra’s squad is rather silly as they should get another w today but I also do see Chris Paul and the visitors being able to do enough to cover the contest.

Miami is playing their first game back from the four game west coast swing that ended with back-to-back games in Golden State and Sacramento on Friday and Saturday night. One theory that I go by, which works a heck of a lot, is to fade any team that is back home in that first game after a three plus game road trip and that fits the Heat tonight. Then throw in how this is a tough cross country travel all the way from Sacramento down south to Miami and a third game in the last four days. You know that the flight home did not get in until Sunday morning, fairly late, and the players did not get a usual night of sleep making this almost feel like a back-to-back type of a situation. Fatigue has got to be an issue and when factored in with it being that first game back in South Beach how can I not grab this around double-digit number?

New Orleans is not great at all and the 8-0 start to the season was a semi mirage as proven by them dropping three of their last four both straight up and against that number. With that said though the Hornets do have a superstar point guard in Paul along with a few other pieces like David West and Emeka Okafor. New Orleans also hasn’t played since Friday and is without a shadow of a doubt the far fresher team on the court today and to get around double digits makes them just fine with me.

Look for the Heat to resort back to that earlier season form and in the end this thing to be a lot closer than the experts seem to think.

The pick: New Orleans +11

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NFL Week 14 Injuries Affect Fantasy Football

The injuries didn’t arrive in an avalanche like the one that caved in the Metrodome. But we did see a few in Week 14 that could significantly impact NFL betting.

Don’t worry about: Michael Vick (hand), Ben Roethlisberger (foot/ankle), Jason Campbell (stinger), Shonn Greene (neck), DeSean Jackson (hamstring)

Aaron Rodgers, Packers: CONCUSSION

The Packers’ star captured the Concussion of the Week award yesterday because of his stubborn unwillingness to slide. I suppose betting sharps could argue that Rodgers was gutting out extra yardage on his 18-yard scramble because no one else in the Packer running game was stepping up. He said he had a headache but a clear head after the game, meaning he at least has a shot to play against the Patriots next week. Without him, this sports betting blog will recommend you avoid the Packer line at all costs, as the Pats are demolishing everyone right now.

Chris Ivory, Saints: HAMSTRING

Fantasy football players who found this waiver-wire gem are probably pretty irked about this one. Ivory was running with purpose again, tallying 47 yards on seven carries, but left with a hamstring injury. No word yet on the severity but, with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush both back from injury, the Saints won’t need to rush Ivory back.

Gerald McCoy and Quincy Black, Buccaneers: BICEPS, FOREARM

And we thought the Packer defense had it bad earlier this season. The Buccaneers have been absolutely devastated by season-ending injuries to their defense over the last few weeks. The latest casualties, out until 2011, are McCoy and Black. The Bucs ground out a win yesterday but will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs now.

Damien Woody, Jets: KNEE

We don’t know how serious it is but we do know that Woody, a key part of New York’s offensive line, aggravated a knee injury in Sunday’s loss to Miami. His loss would be a painful blow to the Jets’ rushing attack. Strong safety Eric Smith also may be out next week, as he may have suffered a concussion on Sunday.

Stewart Bradley, Eagles: ELBOW

Linebacker Stewart Bradley is done for the regular season at least. He dislocated his elbow in the Sunday nighter. Injuries are starting to pile up for the Eagles’ “D.”

For more information: Avoid the pitfalls of bowl betting and get exclusive bowl betting previews for the best sports picks on the OffshoreInsiders.com Network.

Steve Budin-Al DeMarco Videos, What Happened? Week 14 NFL Winners Posted

Lack of finances have derailed the Steve Budin and Al DeMarco Fox Sports infomercial but winning sports betting videos are up.  The sizzling LateInfo has the biggest of all week 14 NFL picks.

The Giants vs. Vikings game has been postponed because of weather and the Metrodome roof issues. The make-up details are being discussed at press time with a Monday Night Football at the University of Minnesota the likely option.

Today in the Daily Sports Roundup: The Pats and Bears both look to extend winning streaks in Chicago, the Cowboys battle the Eagles, and the Nuggets take on the Knicks.

Colliding on the gridiron . . .

Coming off a huge Monday night win, the Patriots (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) will look to stay on a roll on Sunday afternoon when they play on the road against the Bears (9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS). New England pounded the rival Jets 45-3 at home last time out, with Tom Brady throwing for 326 yards with four touchdowns. BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 72 yards and two scores that day. Chicago got past the Lions 24-20 in Detroit last week, as Jay Cutler passed for 234 yards and a touchdown. Matt Forte and Chester Taylor both ran for scores for the Bears in that game. Oddsmakers have the Patriots pegged as 3-point road favorites for Sunday’s matchup, while the total for the contest is at 41 points.

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Other afternoon matchups around the NFL on Sunday: Tampa Bay (-2) at Washington, Cleveland at Buffalo (-1), Green Bay (-7) at Detroit, Oakland at Jacksonville (-4), Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-8.5), Atlanta (-7.5) at Carolina, Seattle at San Francisco (-5.5), St. Louis at New Orleans (-9), Denver (-4.5) at Arizona, Miami at the Jets (-5), and Kansas City at San Diego (-7). As well, on Sunday night it’ll be Philadelphia (-3.5) at Dallas. The Eagles (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) and Cowboys (4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS) will be meeting for the first time this season, with Philadelphia coming off a 34-24 home win over the Texans, and Dallas coming off a 38-35 road win over Indianapolis.

Tipping off on the hardwood . . .

The NBA has six games on tap for Sunday, with New Orleans at Philadelphia, the Lakers at New Jersey, Cleveland at Oklahoma City, Orlando at the Clippers, Portland at San Antonio, and Denver at New York. The Knicks and Nuggets played a high-scoring game in Denver back on November 16, with the home side pulling out a 120-118 win as a 7.5-point favorite. Carmelo Anthony, who has been dealing with a sore knee lately, put up 26 points for the Nuggets in that win over the Knicks, while Al Harrington was good for 22 points. Amare Stoudemire led the Knicks’ attack with 24 points in that night’s loss.

As well, four games involve ranked teams on the college basketball schedule for Sunday: Appalachian State at No. 9 Georgetown, No. 12 Villanova at La Salle, Northern Colorado at No. 16 Illinois, and Western Carolina at No. 2 Ohio State. The second-ranked Buckeyes (7-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) got past IUPUI 75-64 at home last time out, with Jared Sullinger pouring in 40 points in the win. William Buford had 14 points on the day.

Taking a trip around the rink . . .

Finally, the NHL offers up three games on Sunday, with Vancouver at Edmonton, Minnesota at Anaheim, and Washington at the Rangers. The Capitals played the Rangers in New York back on November 9, coming away with a 5-3 win as a -130 road favorite. Brooks Laich scored twice for Washington in that victory, while John Erskine, Mike Knuble, and Matt Hendricks all provided singles. Michal Neuvirth stopped 25 of 28 New York shots. Brian Boyle (with two) and Derek Boogaard had the markers for the Rangers in that losing cause, and Henrik Lundqvist surrendered four goals on 23 shots.

NFL Free Picks Week 14 From Elite Sports Handicappers

There is a loaded gun of week 14 NFL picks and nobody is hotter than the most inexpensive service in the world ScoresOddsPicks of OffshoreInsiders.com.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5) – Sunday at 4:15 p.m. ET

New York (9-3, 7-5 ATS) was embarrassed 45-3 by the Patriots on Monday night. Nothing went right; Mark Sanchez and the offense looked terrible while the defense had no hope at all of slowing Tom Brady. It’s one of those games you don’t dwell on—just forget it and move on.

Miami (6-6, 7-5 ATS) has rotated between wins and losses for nine straight games. Last week, it was a 13-10 loss to the Browns, which was sealed by an interception by Chad Henne with less than a minute to play. At least the defense is playing pretty well; Miami hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in its past four games.

Don’t overthink this one. Yes, the Jets looked awful last week, but they simply got crushed by Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. After a few drives, the Jets mentally checked out. That won’t happen against Chad Henne and Tony Sparano. Look for New York to bring its typical array of exotic blitz packages, confusing Henne and forcing some turnovers—and easy points for the offense.

Take the Jets.

Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) – Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET

If at the beginning of the season somebody told you the Raiders and Jaguars would be involved in a hugely important game in Week 14, you’d have called them a liar—yet here we are.

The Raiders (6-6, 6-6 AT) ended a two-game skid with last week’s 28-13 romp over San Diego. Oakland covered as a 13-point underdog and kept itself in the AFC West hunt. The ground game finally got back on track, with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush churning out 192 yards and a pair of scores.

Jacksonville (7-5, 8-4 ATS) is 4-1 in its past five games, including a 5-0 run against the spread. The Jags are playing much-improved defense; they’ve allowed just 288 yards per game over their last three outings.

Oakland’s offense lives and dies by the run, but Jacksonville has bottled up Chris Johnson, Peyton Hillis and Arian Foster in recent weeks.

The Jaguars will play some tough defense, run the ball and cover the spread.

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Week 14 NFL Free Pick: Steelers -9 to Bengals

The real Matt Rivers of OffshoreInsiders.com has a Sunday winner is on the Pittsburgh Steelers-8.5 to Cincinnati. It’s among the week 14 NFL picks against the spread that are up.

Reasoning: I definitely do admit that the Bengals are a far more talented team than the dreadful 2-10 record indicates and a dangerous team at the drop of a hat with their personnel but in the end today I just can’t see them staying within single digits of the big bad Steelers.

Certainly this could be a semi letdown spot for Pittsburgh after the emotional comeback victory in Baltimore last week to seize control of the division. But with that said how can Marvin Lewis’ reeling squad be able to compete against possibly thee single best defense in all of football and an offense that has been cooking as well led by an absolute warrior in Ben Roethlisberger. What Big Ben did in that game against the Ravens was close to legendary and after seeing that Mike Tomlin’s boys have got to be flying high and ready to put a stranglehold on the division.

Ochocinco, Palmer, TO and Benson have an upside for sure and the defense is a bunch of former number one picks but this season has been an absolute disaster and now in the cold of Heinz Field and up against Polamalu and the Steelers how can this thing be close after 60 minutes? I just can’t see it. Teasing the Steelers is a great play because losing at home in this spot sees extremely remote and that’s what it more than likely entails but I see this south of 10 number as the right side and a must play as well.

The pick: Pittsburgh -8.5

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Humanitarian Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

Can Northern Illinois put the exclamation mark on its 10-win season with a victory over Fresno State in the Humanitarian Bowl? The betting decision will come down to whether or not you think Fresno state can stop the Huskies’ prolific ground attack.

Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) vs Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4)

Saturday, December 18, 5:30 p.m. ET

Bodog.com favorite: Northern Illinois -3

Over/Under: 60

Northern Illinois was a force against the spread this season. It went 9-3-1 ATS for the year and went 9-1-1 ATS over its final 11 games. It sometimes struggles to cover against tougher competition, however; the Huskies are 2-9 ATS over their last 11 against teams with winning records. Thanks to their solid offense, the OVER was 8-5 over Northern Illinois’ 13 games this season.

Fresno State wasn’t as strong from a sports betting perspective, going 5-6-1 ATS on the year. However, it enters the Humanitarian Bowl 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games as an underdog. The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS over their last seven non-conference affairs. However, though Fresno State closed its season with two straight victories, its offense sputtered; the Bulldogs are 1-7-1 ATS over their last nine games when failing to reach 100 rushing yards the previous game. The total trends toward the OVER for Fresno State as well; it’s 4-1 over the Bulldogs’ last five bowl games.

On paper, Northern Illinois looks superior across the board. Offensively, the Huskies are 21st in the country with 447.8 total yards per game. They field the league’s No. 7 rushing attack, averaging 266.7 yards per game. Their star runner, Chad Spann, leads the team with 1,293 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. It’s no wonder the Huskies are 13th in the country with 37.8 points per game. Quarterback Chandler Harnish was efficient this year, throwing 20 touchdown passes versus five picks, but this is a run-first team; Northern Illinois ranks 89th in the nation with 181.2 passing yards per contest.

Defensively, the Huskies are no slouches, ranking 28th overall (328.2 YPG), 35th against the pass (202.1 YPG), 29th against the run (126.2 YPG) and 16th in points allowed (19.1).

Fresno State’s numbers don’t look as impressive to NCAA football betting players but the Bulldogs arguably had a much tougher schedule this season, having faced offensive powerhouses like Boise State, Nevada and Hawaii. Their defense still clocks in at 41st with 342.7 yards allowed per game. They’re stronger against the pass (201.2) than the run (141.5). Fresno State struggled to keep opponents off the board this year, allowing 29.2 points per game and surrendering 49 or more points three times.

Fresno State’s underwhelming offense is 69th in the country (375 YPG), including 67th in passing (214.3) and 51st in rushing (160.7). The Bulldogs’ go-to offensive weapon is Robbie Rouse, who ran for 1,097 yards and eight scores this year.

Matt Rivers Free College Basketball Betting Pick

The real Matt Rivers of OffshoreInsiders.com has a free pick Saturday is on Texas A&M +2 to Washington.

Reason: Washington definitely is the more talented team when compared to the Aggies and probably has the better shot to go farther when all is said and done. I really like the offensive firepower that Thomas, Overton, Bryan-Amaning and Holiday bring to the table but and a bit but here, I just do not trust the Huskies traveling like this as Lorenzo Romar’s team never seems to be able to play nearly as well away from the state of Washington.

UDub is 6-2 thus far on the season and has been scoring like crazy. This team goes over the century mark routinely and has smacked everybody except for a pair of games in Maui when they did little in losses against Kentucky and Michigan State. Besides the win against Virginia on the big island the Huskies have been in their comfort zone throughout and now venture back out on the road down south to Aggieland against a pretty good A&M squad.

Mark Turgeon probably does not have his best team but Khris Middleton has been very good and at 8-1 along with being at home against a Washington squad that is sketchy at times on the road I can’t help but back the Aggies in this pretty much home dog spot.

This game may not turn out to be the instant classic that last season’s was but the Aggies in front of their fans are going to win this game more than they won’t and that statement means everything to me at this number.

The pick: Texas A&M +2.

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