All posts by Joe Duffy

AI Continues to Dominate Sports Betting; Are You on the Outside Looking In?

This is your wallet on Artificial Intelligence. Joe Duffy continues to dominate. Powered by AI, Joe Duffy’s Picks is 106-81 this football season for better than 56% winners. Get a college football side for Thursday. I swept going 3-0 in MLB on top of UTEP. Get the picks now 

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet. 

CFB

Major

UTEP +3 Florida International

We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. The official outlaw line is  Our outlaw line is UTEP -6.5. My top power ratings have them a slight favorite, giving us about a five percent edge. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate of 57 percent. 

MLB 

Major

PHILADELPHIA -120 Atlanta 507

No listed pitchers

Hotter playoff team is +83.29 for 22.2 ROI. When the team is off a same series loss, the ROI is slightly higher. 

HOUSTON (URQUIDDY +110) Minnesota (Ryan) 707

Teams off win as an underdog in same series under specific situations that apply in this game are 84-70 +29.62 units and 18.3 ROI. 

ARIZONA (PFAADT +130) LA Dodgers (Lynn) 907

Another hotter team in playoffs angle is +76.96 units +21.3 ROI. 

Taking Vegas: Betting Splits For Week 5 NFL

Biggest public bets via OffshoreInsiders.com sources for NFL week 5. 

🏈 % of bets: Miami

🏈% of money: Miami, Pittsburgh

🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Arizona, Minnesota 

🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Indianapolis -1 to +2.5, Green Bay -1 to +2, Cincinnati -5 to -3

Biggest bets for today is from Grandmaster Joe Duffy. Sunday, I have NFL led by 4 ET Interconference Game of the Year among 3 Wise Guys, plus 6 Majors. Added SNF side! Off consecutive winnings weeks with prop bets. 4 NFL prop betsOffshoreInsiders.com

College Football Odds: Who is the Public Betting on September 7

Biggest public bets via OffshoreInsiders.com sources

🏈 % of bets: Oregon State, Akron, Michigan, Texas Tech; EMU UNDER

🏈% of money: Texas Tech, UNT, Michigan, Notre Dame; Buffalo UNDER, Wash State OVER 

🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: UNT, UConn

🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Kansas -3.5 to +2, Miami Oh -12 to -8.5. 

BEST SPORTS HANDICAPPER PICKS FOR TODAY

LateInfo will continue massive winning streak: 3:30 ET. Off a sweep last week in college and NFL, as you know LateInfo often has low profile games you have to find on ESPN+. LI is about winning. Our top source Big Red says Alabama vs. Texas A&M strongest bet thus far all at OffshoreInsiders.com

Free Premium College Football Pick From Joe Duffy

Joe Duffy is yet again cruising this football season. 86-63 this season in football.First wave of winners up for this weekend. Thursday Night NFL Game of the Year, plus total and 2 college footbal sides and a total. Yes 5 football winners Thursday alone! Friday, 2 college football sides.

Crush the line moves as I have 5 college football Wise Guys and a stunning 14 Majorsfor Saturday. Sunday, I have 3Wise Guys NFL led by 4 ET Interconference Game of the Year among 3 Wise Guys, plus 4 Majors at OffshoreInsiders.com

This is a premium bet from Joe Duffy.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE PICK

TOLEDO -19 UMass noon ESPNU bet at Bovada

Fade poor first half teams if they are off a high scoring game is 626-443-19. Fade home underdogs with bad defense is 200-130-5. When both apply, it is 151-89-3, including 4-0 this season.

Top NFL Teams to Bet On and Against in 2023 Based on Sweat Barometer

Who are the best teams to bet on and against this season? OffshoreInsiders.com has the answer. Top NFL teams this season based on margin of cover:

Team      ATS Record                                          ATS margin
Miami3-018.2
Buffalo2-113.7
Cleveland2-111.8
San Francisco2-19.7
Arizona3-09.3
Dallas2-18.7
Green Bay3-09.3
NFL betting

 Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.

Best teams to bet against based on margin of cover:

Team      ATS Record                                           ATS margin
Denver0-3-18
NY Giants0-3-15.5
Chicago 0-3-15
Cincinnati 0-2-1-9
Jacksonville 1-2-8.7
NFL sweat barometer

Damian Lillard Trade Makes Seismic Shift in NBA Title Odds

On Wednesday, September 27, the clock finally struck Dame Time.

Damian Lillard is headed to the Milwaukee Bucks, creating a “Big 2” with Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the new NBA Championship favorite. 

SportsBetting updated its 2023-24 title odds as soon as the trade news broke, and the Bucks went from having the third-best chances to the favorites. 

Here’s a breakdown of the NBA Finals odds changes for all of the teams involved in the Damian Lillard blockbuster:

Bucks: +700 to +370

Suns: +800 to +600

Trail Blazers: +1000 to +2000

The best NBA plays in the world have gotten better. More selective outsourced bets this season from Joe Duffy at OffshoreInsiders.com

2023-24 NBA Championship

Milwaukee Bucks                      +370

Denver Nuggets                        +500

Boston Celtics                           +525

Phoenix Suns                            +600

Los Angeles Lakers                    +1000

Golden State Warriors               +1200

Miami Heat                               +1600

Los Angeles Clippers                  +2000

Cleveland Cavaliers                   +2500

Dallas Mavericks                       +2500

Memphis Grizzlies                     +2500

Philadelphia 76ers                     +2500

Sacramento Kings                     +4000

New Orleans Pelicans                +5000

New York Knicks                        +5000

Oklahoma City Thunder             +6000

Minnesota Timberwolves          +7000

Atlanta Hawks                           +7500

San Antonio Spurs                     +8000

Brooklyn Nets                           +10000

Toronto Raptors                        +10000

Chicago Bulls                            +12500

Houston Rockets                       +12500

Indiana Pacers                          +15000

Orlando Magic                          +15000

Utah Jazz                                  +15000

Portland Trail Blazers                +20000

Detroit Pistons                          +25000

Washington Wizards                 +25000

Charlotte Hornets                     +30000 

Week 3 NFL Winning Bet From Hottest Handicapper in World And Best Tout in History

As we file this report, Joe Duffy’s Picks is 37-18 in football for the season, college and pro, starting with the HOF Game winner. Please see menu for latest update of winners. I have eight NFL sides, totals, plus a prop bet now at OffshoreInsiders.com

Week 3 NFL free pick

NY JETS +9.5 Dallas

Week 2 is definitely about overreaction and teams off massive covers are a stunning 16-0 fade, just 3-13 SU under specific situations that apply in this game. Other full season regression angles apply as well. Of course nobody wants to bet on the stiff QB the Jets have, nor bet against the Cowboys who looked like the best team in the league last week. That’s what gives this team value. 

Pro Gamblers Sweep Again and Again; The Gap Between Sharps and Squares Has Never Been Larger

Pro gamblers keep rolling. Joe Duffy’s Picks went 4-0 last night and thanks to pro gambler metrics now 37-18 football, college and NFL going back to preseason. A combination of pro systems, best simulators and models, contrarian intel, and outsourced picks from “organic” betting pros, this is what whales all over the world got last night at OffshoreInsiders.com     

NFL

Major 

MINNESOTA +7.5 Philadelphia

We have several overreaction angles relative to week 1 results, including one that is 67.5 percent, another is 163-110. 

CFB

Major 

NAVY +14.5 Memphis 

Big conference road dogs in a game the oddsmakers say will be low scoring is 436-321-21. 

MLB

Major

MILWAUKEE (HOUSER +102) Miami (Perez)

The model’s simulation average moneyline probability of 62.0% is substantially different from the consensus odds implied probability of 50.98. 

Minnesota-White Sox OVER 9.5 (Maeda-Urena)

We have angles that compare total to season to date averages for pitcher, team, and also recent play for each. A combo angle in which all apply goes over at a rate of 56.8 percent with thousands in the sample size and it is up for 2023. 

Week 1 NFL Betting Splits, Line Moves, Public Betting, Contrarian

Duffy 18-9 NFL inc preseason, 34-18 all football this season. 8 NFL sides, totals plus 8 prop bets at OffshoreInsiders.com

Week 1 NFL betting splits 

🏈Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Washington

🏈Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Atlanta, Tennessee 

🏈Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Tennessee, Cleveland 

🏈Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Minnesota -7 to -5

NFL Week 1 Winning Bet

It is week 1 of NFL and the bets are up. Joe Duffy and the pro bettors nailed Detroit Thursday as Duffy improves to 18-9 since preseason. We are up to seven NFL for Sunday led by Wise Guy.2 Sunday NFL player props added at OffshoreInsiders.com

Week 1 NFL Free Pick

HOUSTON +9.5 Baltimore 

Week 1 teams that missed playoff previous season versus opponent that made the playoffs is 85-56-2. Squares hate 9.5 but under this system is is 6-0 and at 9 or 9.5 it is 9-1. There is a bizarre fear of 9.5 because of 10 being a key number and people think it’s one of the worst numbers in sports, but covers in all situations at 54.5 percent all-time as opposed to 10 at just 50.5. 

This is one of those that could easily become a premium bet as of my few sharps has Houston with nobody on Baltimore.