There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale.
The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets.
This is the intel you get every damn day. Of course the ONLY loser is when a 28.5 dog explodes for the final eight points of the game for a horrific bad beat so we settle for 5-1. Did you read the intel? Joe Duffy, OffshoreInsiders.com
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.
NFL
Wise Guy
TENNESSEE +3 Green Bay
Interconference Prime Time Game of the Year
Fade teams in a short week off an overtime game is 21-2. In fact, underdogs are 8-4 SU. Fade home teams that had good fortune based on penalties resulting in first downs last game is 554-432-35. Fading offenses as favorites with at least 90 more snaps is 223-173-10.
CBB
Major
CHARLESTON -3.5 Davidson
This is an outsourced pick from the short-list of very entrusted experts. Previously called a competitor consensus, the name was changed to reflect it does not always come from the few quality professionals who sell picks, but also can come from any sharp source. As long as I am not leaning the other way, I will bet a trusted outscource. Both of our contrarian indexes, one worldwide sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has this as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide.
CREIGHTON -18.5 UC Riverside
Highly ranked teams in non-conference home games make big statements. In fact, generally the bigger the favorite the better to the tune of 271-198. Our tremendous data-engineering model has our pick covering 62 percent of time by 22 points per game.
ARIZONA -28.5 Utah State
Highly ranked teams in non-conference home games make big statements. In fact, generally the bigger the favorite the better to the tune of 271-198. Our best advanced computer model has Zona covering 64 percent of simulations by an average of 32 points.
NBA
Wise Guy
San Antonio-Sacramento OVER 236
Western Conference Total of the Month
When the total is much higher than that of the total of each teams last game, listen to what the oddsmakers are telling us because it goes over 595-413-52. Our top-rated simulator program has them going over 74 percent of time with an average of 250 points scored.
Major
Detroit-LA Clippers UNDER 216
Total relative to last two games goes under 393-237-21. Total relative to recent numbers goes under 2069-1410-148.
This is a basic theory that crosses over all sports and makes you and me a fortune in totals betting and each sports involves samples sizes of several thousand games.
NFL winner for Sunday, November 20 from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy.
Edit: revised line and location, the bet still applies with a strong angle.
CLEVELAND +7.5 Buffalo
Underdogs versus a great and red-hot offense is 165-101-8.
Best teams in NFL this year based on margin of cover:
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
NY Jets
6-3
+7.1
Dallas
6-3
+5.1
The Titans and the Giants have the best spread winning percentages at 7-2 but only covering by an average of 1.8 points per game and 3.6 respectively. The Chargers are 6-3 but have a -4.9 margin of cover.
Best teams to bet against based on said criterion.
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
LA Rams
2-6-1
-8.7
Green Bay
4-6
-5.8
LA Chargers
6-3
-4.9
Colts
4-6
-4.6
Yes the Chargers have an impressive spread record but a horrible spread margin. Conversely, Jacksonville is 3-7 to the number, but has a +3.3 margin of cover. Many believe this means the Jags are undervalued, while LA Chargers would be overvalued. New Orleans is tied for the second worst spread record at 3-7 but by only a -2.3 margin.
💰💰💰Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. 4:25 ET Game of the Year is among nine NFL winners led by four Wise Guys! Joe Duffy is widely accepted as the top college and pro football handicapper in history, hands down. Get the picks now
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
Free winning bet from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy is to go with:
MILWAUKEE -4 Cleveland
An angle that says to go with the more disappointing offense season to date is 449-342-16. Based on delta points scored. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread.
Our top power ratings have Milwaukee as -7.9 point favorite, giving the Bucks at very good 10 percent edge. Milwaukee covers an impressive 67 percent of simulations on our top computer model, winning by an average of 117-107. This is a very strong game insofar as our top two models matching up. If you are searching for the best game, you can opt for satta king 786.
💰💰💰Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has at least five winning picks tonight. College football total, two college hoops sides, two NBA totals.Inspired by Billy Walters and the Vegas Computer Boys, Joe Duffy has been for decades the top data scientist in sports handicapping. Get the picks now
Top NBA over teams based on margin of cover.
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
Oklahoma City
9-5
+10.5
Boston
9-4-1
+10.4
Sacramento
6-6-1
+6.4
Many who compare records to margin of cover believe the Kings as an OVER team are good value. The Pistons, Hawks and are tied for second top over team with aforesaid Thunder based on percentage. Detroit goes 9-5-1 but by only 2.7 points per game, Atlanta 9-5 but by only 1.1.
Top NBA under teams based on said criterion.
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
LA Clippers
3-12
-8.2
Portland
4-8-2
-5.1
Milwaukee
5-8
-4.9
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
The Eagles and the Bills lost this past week, but one is still the Super Bowl favorite.
SportsBetting updates its Super Bowl, conference, and division odds daily. Yesterday, the Eagles were +350 favorites for the NFL’s 52ndchampionship edition. Today, it’s back to the Bills, who outside of the last seven days had been the favorites since the day after Super Bowl LVI.
The Chiefs, victors of three in a row with the MVP favorite putting on weekly quarterback clinics, remain stuck in the Super Bowl odds’ second spot.
What’s interesting when looking at the NFL division odds is that outside of the AFC East, all the favorites have better than -200 (or 1-2) odds, possibly making the second half of the season not as interesting as the first half.
Buffalo is in third place in its division, yet still has -190 odds to take the AFC East. All division favorites have better than a 65% chance of becoming champs.
Here are the current odds and implied probabilities for each:
AFC East
Buffalo Bills -190 (65.5% chance Bills are division champs)
Miami Dolphins +225
New York Jets +1100
New England Patriots +1600
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens -500 (83.3% chance Ravens are division champs)
Cincinnati Bengals +350
Cleveland Browns +3300
Pittsburgh Steelers +4000
AFC South
Tennessee Titans -500 (83.3% chance Titans are division champs)
Jacksonville Jaguars +600
Indianapolis Colts +700
Houston Texans +25000
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs -2000 (95.2% chance Chiefs are division champs)
Los Angeles Chargers +700
Denver Broncos +6600
Las Vegas Raiders +10000
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles -350 (77.8% chance Eagles are division champs)
Dallas Cowboys +450
New York Giants +700
Commanders +6600
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings -5000 (98.0% chance Vikings are division champs)
Green Bay Packers +1200
Detroit Lions +3300
Chicago Bears +8000
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -400 (80.0% chance Bucs are division champs)
Atlanta Falcons +500
New Orleans Saints +900
Carolina Panthers +2500
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers -225 (69.2% chance 49ers are division champs)
For the first time in his young career, Jayson Tatum is the favorite to be named MVP.
Tatum’s Celtics are a on a tear, reeling off seven straight victories en route to the league’s best record.
The MVP odds at SportsBetting looked different Tuesday morning than they did Monday, when Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic were basically co-favorites. Now, there is a crowded trio at the top of the board, led by Tatum.
Additionally, it looks as if Paolo Banchero has Rookie of the Year locked up, despite not playing for more than a week due to an ankle injury.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 37 points for the second consecutive night Tuesday to boost his Most Improved Player chances while Russell Westbrook remains the heavy favorite for Sixth Man of the Year.
Free NBA pick from the top basketball capper in history, Joe Duffy.
MEMPHIS +3.5 New Orleans
Going with teams off a spread loss versus an opponent off a spread win is 629-474-19 under specific situations that apply in this game. Overreaction is a big part of betting and applies here. Our official outlaw line is just +1. The outlaw line is what the line would be without square moves. Especially so close to a pick ‘em, 2.5-point difference is big.
Top NBA teams to bet on based on sweat barometer.
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Portland
11-2
+6.9
Utah
10-5
+6.5
Oklahoma City
9-5
+5.9
Cleveland
8-5
+5.4
Notes: The Bucks have the fourth best ATS record in terms of winning percentage at 9-4 but by they have a negative ATS margin at -.5. The Kings are second in said category, but by +2.2 points per game, which puts them seventh.
Top NBA teams to bet against based on sweat barometer.
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Minnesota
5-9
-6.4
LA Clippers
6-8
-5.4
Golden State
5-9
-4.9
Notes: Miami has the worst record ATS at 3-11 but only -2.9 cover margin. Lakers are the second worst at 3-10 ATS, but -2.9. Some bettors interpret this as both teams being undervalued.
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often-deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
💰💰💰Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. A 4-0 college basketball sweep leads us to a winning day!It starts early this week!First two winners are up this week, Tuesday college football.Inspired by Billy Walters and the Vegas Computer Boys, Joe Duffy has been for decades the top data scientist in sports handicapping. NBA Wise Guy added.Get the picks now
NFL betting, NBA wagering, college basketball odds: who is the public betting on Sunday?
💰💰💰Top expert pick is from The Great One, Stevie Vincent. He is 405-227.TGO has best pro football at 1 ET, 4 ET, and SNF. AFC Underdog Game of the Last 33 Years, Non-Conference Outright Upsets of Half Decade lead the way. TGO is the top money line dog capper in sports gambling. TGO has added two Perfect Plays in collegiate basketball led by Non-Conference Perfect Plat Rivalry Game of the Decade.TGO reveals angles inside the play which includes 13-0 against one team and 11-0 for the other. He has moneyline underdog winners in three sports! Five basketballadded in all. All at OffshoreInsiders.com
NFL market report
🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Chicago, Pittsburgh; Las Vegas UNDER
🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Pittsburgh, Chicago; LA Rams UNDER, Detroit OVER, San Francisco UNDER, Philadelphia UNDER
🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Pittsburgh +2.5 to -1, Buffalo -3.5 to -7
🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Carolina; Green Bay UNDER, Philadelphia UNDER
NBA market report
🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Brooklyn
🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Memphis; Oklahoma City OVER, Philadelphia UNDER
🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Memphis; Philadelphia UNDER
🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: LA Lakers -3 to -4.5
NCAAB market report
🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: North Dakota State
🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: North Dakota State
🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Columbia
🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Davidson -17.5 to -20.5
There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale.
The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets.
Fade big home dogs if not off a low scoring game and with a substantial amount of rest and neither team has an extreme winning percentage 691-482-29. Big away favorites versus opponent of a win is 542-369-19. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a 65 percent rate
Toronto is 2-4 SU road, while OKC is 3-3 SU at home, yet we have a fairly big away favorite. Anti-splits angle in which we go with road team with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 963-730-27. Another one is 257-169.
💰💰💰Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. Ooops, I did it again. Yeah a split in NFL, but winning days in both college football and basketball and 5-3 overall. College football side. What a Saturday and Sunday portfolio we already have up, so get a minimum of the three day now. Four NBA led by two Wise Guys, four college basketball sides! Get the picks now
It’s a good thing Texas A&M has one of the nation’s largest sports endowments because the Aggies may soon be forking over a large sum to make their head coach go away.
Following the firing of Auburn’s Bryan Harsin, SportsBettingreopened odds for the next head coach canned and Jimbo Fisher is the overwhelming favorite.
And speaking of Auburn, there are fresh odds on the Tigers’ next head man. Jeff Grimes is a 1-1
favorite, but Deion Sanders and Urban Meyer are also on the list.
Next College Coach Fired
Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M) +200
Jeff Scott (South Florida) +350
David Shaw (Stanford) +500
Steve Sarkisian (Texas) +700
Justin Wilcox (California) +750
Jedd Fisch (Arizona) +800
Jeff Haley (Boston College) +900
Neal Brown (West Virginia) +900
Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern) +1200
Ken Niumatalolo (Navy) +1600
Mel Tucker (Michigan State) +2500
Mario Cristobal (Miami FL) +3300
Brent Venables (Oklahoma) +5000
Auburn Next Head Coach
Jeff Grimes +100
Hugh Freeze +250
Lane Kiffin +275
Deion Sanders +700
Matt Rhule +1200
Matt Campbell +1400
Kevin Steele +2500
Mark Stoops +2500
Mike Gundy +2500
Mike Leach +2500
Urban Meyer +3300
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